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Duration:2 years
Time Period:2022 - 2023
Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.
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2.516kTotal Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
97.113Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?Binary
96.480Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?Binary
91.558Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?Binary
88.548Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?Binary
88.496Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?Binary
85.649Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?Binary
85.282Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?Binary
76.036Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?Binary
75.717In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?Binary
73.919Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?Binary
73.749Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)Binary
73.748Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)Binary
71.545Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)Binary
70.043Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?Binary
68.479In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?Binary
66.308Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?Binary
64.858Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?Binary
63.748Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?Binary
63.372Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?Binary
60.777Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?Binary
58.352Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?Binary
58.079Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?Binary
54.736Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?Binary
52.200In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?Binary
52.067Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?Binary
49.937Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?Binary
48.582On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?Binary
46.642In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?Binary
45.660Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?Binary
44.282Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?Binary
44.261Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?Binary
43.987Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?Binary
42.605On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?Binary
41.539On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?Binary
40.654On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?Binary
38.956Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?Binary
37.068Will Finland join NATO before 2024?Binary
36.118Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?Binary
34.626In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?Binary
32.436Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?Binary
30.797In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?Binary
29.914Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?Binary
24.970Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?Binary
23.173Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?Binary
20.952In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?Binary
19.985Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?Binary
19.899Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?Binary
17.597Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?Binary
14.610Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?Binary
14.055Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?Binary
13.061Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?Binary
11.514In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?Binary
8.886In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?Binary
8.874In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?Binary
6.611In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?Binary
5.293If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?Binary
3.546Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?Binary
2.259Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?Binary
0.174In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?Binary
0.073In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?Binary
-1.023In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?Binary
-1.133Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?Binary
-6.170Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?Binary
-8.832By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?Binary
-21.308Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?Binary
-41.298Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?Binary
-118.887Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?Binary