Neniu

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2.853k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.667	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
96.793	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
94.578	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
93.552	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
93.073	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
90.978	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
90.872	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
90.187	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
90.047	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
88.787	How much crude oil will the US import from Russia in 2022?	Continuous
85.990	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
85.083	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
84.389	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
81.243	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
78.963	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
77.871	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
77.740	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
77.644	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
76.593	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
73.226	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
72.225	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
70.930	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
70.572	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
67.878	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
66.247	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
65.996	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
65.346	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
65.061	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
64.725	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
63.356	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
62.982	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
62.746	How many Japanese Encephalitis deaths will there be in Australia before July 2022?	Continuous
62.545	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
59.319	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
57.341	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
57.303	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
56.309	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
55.994	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
55.271	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
53.579	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
50.755	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
46.756	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
43.553	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2022?	Continuous
43.417	Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?	Binary
42.819	What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022?	Continuous
42.802	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
42.009	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
40.542	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
38.565	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
36.935	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
36.484	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
34.797	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
34.604	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
32.823	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
31.460	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
31.172	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
30.970	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
30.175	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
28.623	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
25.601	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
25.478	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
25.462	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
21.204	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
20.286	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
19.357	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
16.571	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
15.670	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
15.645	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (October 2022)	Continuous
15.123	Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?	Binary
13.234	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
12.638	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
12.606	What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary?	Continuous
12.290	When will China end Covid Zero?	Continuous
11.941	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
10.920	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
8.599	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
8.517	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
8.423	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
7.576	Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?	Binary
7.558	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
5.252	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
4.894	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
4.794	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
4.691	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
3.383	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
3.283	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
2.911	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
2.877	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
2.442	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
2.368	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
2.350	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
1.916	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
1.889	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
1.657	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
1.529	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
1.230	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
1.036	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
1.036	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
0.978	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
0.963	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
0.829	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
0.632	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
0.600	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
0.600	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
0.600	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
0.564	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
0.502	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
0.320	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
0.014	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
0.014	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
0.011	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
-0.042	Will CMS's emergency regulation requiring Covid-19 vaccinations for healthcare workers be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
-0.507	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-1.389	Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-1.619	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-2.265	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
-2.284	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-4.380	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
-5.389	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-7.620	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
-12.111	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
-12.337	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-12.939	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
-14.375	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-21.800	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-22.252	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-27.334	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
-35.721	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-38.491	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
-60.556	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-61.900	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
-65.959	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
-95.020	Will "Counterfeit Diversity: How Strategically Misrepresenting Gender Diversity Dampens Organizations’ Perceived Sincerity and Elevates Women’s Identity Threat Concerns" (JPSP, 2022) replicate?	Continuous
-113.552	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
-120.203	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
-142.607	How many troops of the NATO Response Force will deploy to the frontline states in 2022?	Continuous
-145.381	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
-189.940	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous