TemetNosce

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.521k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
133.208	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
101.122	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
97.950	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
97.949	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
93.146	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
91.686	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
91.686	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
91.498	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
91.498	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
91.498	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
89.472	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
88.581	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
88.581	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
88.341	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
87.460	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
87.067	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
84.517	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
83.777	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
82.801	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
80.236	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
80.170	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
80.044	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
79.050	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
76.700	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
75.411	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
75.080	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
74.290	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
73.611	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
72.769	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2022 Q4)	Continuous
71.980	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
71.980	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
71.181	What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022?	Continuous
68.371	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
68.371	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
68.371	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
68.232	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
67.780	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
67.761	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
65.625	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
65.013	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
64.657	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
63.744	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
62.441	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
62.353	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
61.229	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
60.714	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
60.597	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
60.269	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
60.052	How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022?	Continuous
58.519	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
56.680	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
56.649	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
56.395	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
55.873	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (October 2022)	Continuous
55.656	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
52.870	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
52.865	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
52.169	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
51.673	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
51.479	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
50.156	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
48.761	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
48.747	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
47.075	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
46.760	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
46.529	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2022)	Continuous
45.452	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
45.318	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
45.152	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
45.035	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
43.824	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Scott Aitchison)	Binary
43.824	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Roman Baber)	Binary
43.824	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Leslyn Lewis)	Binary
43.564	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
43.330	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
41.418	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
41.179	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre)	Binary
41.178	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Jean Charest)	Binary
40.207	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
38.418	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
36.466	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
35.813	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
35.754	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
35.679	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
35.147	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
33.840	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
32.888	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
30.714	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
30.618	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
27.851	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support granting legal rights to sentient robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
25.841	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (October 2022)	Continuous
25.528	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
24.970	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
23.634	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
22.465	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
21.819	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
21.786	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
21.581	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
21.263	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
20.862	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
20.686	Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?	Binary
20.193	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
18.649	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
18.101	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
15.656	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
14.042	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
14.018	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
13.289	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
12.363	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
11.429	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
11.279	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Marine Le Pen)	Binary
10.852	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
10.726	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
10.144	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
10.086	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
9.819	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
9.705	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Jean-Luc Mélenchon)	Binary
9.529	When will desktop Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs launch?	Continuous
9.524	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
9.474	When will the 30-days Google Trends interest for the term "China protests" peak?	Continuous
9.161	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
8.994	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults answered “Yes” to the statement, “Do you think it could ever be possible for robots/AIs to be sentient?”	Continuous
8.762	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Élisabeth Borne)	Binary
8.505	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
7.917	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
7.787	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
7.354	[Short Fuse] What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for stepping down as head of Twitter?	Continuous
6.918	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2022)	Continuous
6.204	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
6.060	What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary?	Continuous
5.718	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
5.576	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
5.565	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
5.152	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
4.441	Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?	Binary
3.977	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
3.361	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
1.973	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
1.595	How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?	Continuous
1.482	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
1.163	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, "Robots/AIs may be harmful to future generations of people."?	Continuous
0.974	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
0.644	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-22)	Continuous
0.028	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
-4.563	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
-6.283	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
-7.189	Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?	Binary
-7.602	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
-8.125	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
-12.810	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-15.623	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
-28.985	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
-31.833	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “I support a global ban on the development of sentience in robots/AIs.”?	Continuous
-47.681	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-47.711	In the 2021 AIMS survey, what percentage of US adults agreed with the statement, “The welfare of robots/AIs is one of the most important social issues in the world today.”?	Continuous
-100.322	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-128.091	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
-145.893	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-159.818	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary