TemetNosce

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.501k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.148	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
98.191	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
93.572	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
92.149	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
90.534	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
88.523	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
82.201	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
75.890	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
75.890	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
75.890	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
75.291	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
72.377	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
67.650	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
61.573	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
61.571	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
61.571	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
61.560	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
61.557	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
61.551	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
61.256	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
59.055	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
58.042	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
57.702	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
54.130	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
53.866	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
50.148	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
50.124	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
50.124	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
50.124	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
50.124	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
50.124	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
50.124	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
50.110	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
49.039	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
49.019	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
47.546	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
47.121	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
47.015	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
44.934	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
42.814	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
42.437	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
41.800	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
41.477	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
40.863	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
39.360	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
35.486	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
34.159	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
33.691	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
29.515	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
29.020	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
29.017	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
28.875	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
26.057	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.568	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
25.173	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
24.955	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2023 Dec 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
24.434	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
24.080	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
20.002	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
19.376	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
19.328	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
19.233	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
18.781	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
17.524	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
17.334	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
15.297	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
14.974	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
14.973	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
14.643	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
14.364	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
14.363	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
13.990	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
13.697	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
13.293	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.401	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
11.295	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
11.280	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
10.548	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
10.196	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.072	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
10.053	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
9.952	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
9.950	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
9.947	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
9.946	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
9.697	How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024?	Continuous
9.580	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
9.352	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
8.299	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
7.966	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
7.284	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
6.599	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.752	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
5.508	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.387	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
5.121	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.798	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
4.793	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
4.497	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
4.362	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
4.198	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
4.161	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
4.029	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.850	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.503	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
3.413	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
3.377	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.362	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
3.361	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
2.980	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
2.942	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
2.892	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
2.850	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
2.802	How many workers will go on strike as part of major work stoppages in the US in 2023?	Continuous
2.689	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
2.649	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
2.583	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
2.557	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
2.529	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
2.412	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
2.298	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
2.267	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
2.197	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
1.876	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.827	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
1.777	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
1.737	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.684	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
1.661	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
1.552	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
1.544	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
1.481	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.461	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.444	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
1.427	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
1.398	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
1.365	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.355	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
1.349	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.334	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
1.315	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
1.310	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
1.261	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
1.242	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
1.233	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
1.203	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
1.175	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
1.092	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
1.021	What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023?	Continuous
0.337	What will the annual return rate (in USD) of the S&P MERVAL be during 2023?	Continuous
0.174	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
0.146	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
-3.044	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
-3.044	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
-4.580	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
-6.835	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-24.484	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
-55.947	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-66.684	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-75.657	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous

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