TemetNosce

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1.936k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.336	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
92.499	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
92.288	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
91.463	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
90.243	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
88.482	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
87.093	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
87.067	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
85.839	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
82.666	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
81.652	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
81.327	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
80.957	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
80.276	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
78.566	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
78.144	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
76.480	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
75.776	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
74.598	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
74.491	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
73.330	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
72.452	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
68.205	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
68.176	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
65.816	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
62.601	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
60.620	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
56.774	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
55.478	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
52.766	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
52.531	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with critical impact on U.S. interests on January 1st, 2024?	Continuous
49.506	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
43.595	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
43.024	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
42.933	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
42.572	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
41.260	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
40.813	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
40.809	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
39.251	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023)	Continuous
36.953	What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-22)	Continuous
34.295	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
34.162	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
32.486	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas)	Binary
32.486	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ)	Binary
32.486	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist)	Binary
32.486	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz)	Binary
32.485	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List)	Binary
32.483	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit)	Binary
32.482	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu)	Binary
32.482	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor)	Binary
32.068	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
31.623	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
29.856	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
29.376	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
21.347	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023)	Continuous
20.253	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
19.792	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
17.822	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
17.129	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
16.817	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
15.798	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud)	Binary
15.768	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
14.904	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
14.200	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
13.954	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid)	Binary
13.934	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
11.319	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
11.247	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
10.702	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
10.259	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
8.663	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
8.393	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
7.923	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
7.149	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
6.885	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
5.682	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
5.616	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
5.394	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
4.153	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
4.024	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
3.335	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White)	Binary
3.335	Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope)	Binary
2.856	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
1.918	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
1.899	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.704	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
1.621	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
1.620	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
1.471	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
1.329	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
1.283	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
1.283	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
1.283	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
1.282	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
1.277	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
1.274	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
1.274	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
1.273	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
1.270	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
1.270	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
1.265	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
1.157	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
1.122	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
1.112	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
1.070	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
1.050	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
1.034	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
1.028	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
1.002	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
0.981	What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
0.933	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
0.917	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
0.900	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
0.847	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.847	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.847	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.843	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.816	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
0.773	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.741	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.721	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
0.705	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
0.698	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.678	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
0.673	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.673	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
0.667	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
0.644	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
0.632	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
0.631	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
0.626	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.613	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
0.613	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.612	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
0.609	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
0.609	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.589	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
0.479	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
0.461	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
0.461	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.448	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
0.388	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2023 questions)	Continuous
0.214	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
0.178	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.098	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2025 questions)	Continuous
0.050	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
0.014	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2052 questions)	Continuous
-	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
-0.108	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2032 questions)	Continuous
-0.130	[All Questions Now Live!] The Forecasting Our World In Data Tournament has launched! How many forecasters will predict on at least half the questions? (2122 questions)	Continuous
-1.017	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-1.378	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-2.376	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
-5.002	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
-5.516	What will be the U.S. FY 2023 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
-5.959	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.883	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
-20.071	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-31.679	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-36.242	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
-40.872	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
-42.475	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-45.320	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
-53.657	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-53.883	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
-61.532	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-68.951	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-71.139	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
-81.811	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-86.437	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q1)	Continuous
-93.187	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-94.858	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-104.192	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-114.636	What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
-270.439	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
-274.335	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary