| 144.871 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 124.065 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 124.064 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 118.472 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 117.791 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 116.048 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 115.416 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 114.244 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 113.302 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 111.967 | What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad? | Continuous |
| 111.191 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 105.968 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 99.335 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 98.921 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 97.677 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 97.637 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.637 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 97.637 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.563 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.393 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.219 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 97.070 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.923 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 96.467 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 96.387 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.384 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 96.205 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.008 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.976 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 95.976 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 95.651 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 95.607 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 95.603 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 95.467 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 95.305 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.948 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 94.458 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.256 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 94.171 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 93.829 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.821 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 92.534 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 92.296 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.815 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 91.793 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 91.783 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 91.444 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 91.051 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.627 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 90.579 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 89.758 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 88.924 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 88.879 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 88.279 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 88.090 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 87.230 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 86.861 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 86.683 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 86.313 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 86.313 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 85.491 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 85.440 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 84.394 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 84.174 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 83.765 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 82.422 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 82.020 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 81.705 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 81.630 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 80.486 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 80.434 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 80.023 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 79.524 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 79.498 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 79.395 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 79.208 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 79.135 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 79.017 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 79.017 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 78.808 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 78.562 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 78.512 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 78.042 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 77.858 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 77.215 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 76.376 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 75.640 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 75.509 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 75.449 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 74.834 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 74.392 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 74.095 | How many Flex Alerts will be issued in California in 2024? | Continuous |
| 73.362 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 72.730 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 72.559 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 71.950 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 71.504 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 71.326 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 70.706 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 68.573 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 68.573 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 68.573 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 68.424 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 68.424 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 68.424 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 68.424 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 68.424 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 68.220 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 68.220 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 68.220 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 68.067 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 67.948 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 67.948 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 67.948 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 67.948 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 67.930 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 67.930 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 67.864 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 67.864 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 67.861 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 67.777 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 67.758 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 67.685 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 67.015 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 66.761 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 65.325 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 65.139 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 64.197 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
| 64.005 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 63.600 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 63.577 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 63.388 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 63.388 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 63.325 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 62.532 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 62.321 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 62.321 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 61.927 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 61.634 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 61.548 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 61.152 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 61.082 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 60.850 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 60.848 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 60.793 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 60.782 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 60.515 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 60.451 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 60.401 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 60.364 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 60.350 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 60.110 | By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020? | Continuous |
| 59.992 | What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 59.984 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 59.798 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 59.533 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 58.926 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 58.446 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 58.446 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 58.446 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 58.446 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 58.446 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 58.408 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 58.193 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | Binary |
| 58.192 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 58.156 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.142 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.141 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 57.896 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 57.884 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 57.294 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 57.294 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 57.294 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 56.582 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 56.072 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 55.905 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 55.813 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 54.820 | What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022? | Continuous |
| 53.534 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 53.450 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 52.440 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 52.235 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 52.212 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 52.145 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 51.931 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 51.922 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 51.475 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 51.056 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 51.011 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 50.739 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 49.956 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 49.811 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 49.141 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 48.273 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 48.082 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 47.756 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 46.449 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 45.782 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 45.719 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 45.159 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 44.607 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| 44.126 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 43.805 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 42.986 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 42.362 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 42.362 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 42.362 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 42.362 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 42.362 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 42.210 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 42.169 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 41.886 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 41.474 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union) | Binary |
| 40.504 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 40.272 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 40.233 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 40.233 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 40.069 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.867 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 39.576 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.075 | How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report? | Continuous |
| 39.004 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 38.863 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 38.469 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 38.454 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 38.443 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 37.751 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 37.484 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 37.255 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 36.912 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 36.838 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 36.446 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
| 36.360 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 36.250 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3) | Binary |
| 36.250 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4) | Binary |
| 36.250 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5) | Binary |
| 36.250 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6) | Binary |
| 35.237 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 35.184 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.162 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 34.578 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 34.320 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 34.194 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2) | Binary |
| 33.795 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 33.075 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 32.279 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 32.201 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (June-24) | Continuous |
| 32.170 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024) | Continuous |
| 32.077 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 31.720 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 31.631 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (July-24) | Continuous |
| 31.586 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
| 31.456 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 31.429 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 31.380 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1) | Binary |
| 30.768 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 30.529 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 30.460 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 30.429 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 30.400 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 30.386 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 30.368 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 30.073 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 29.874 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 29.642 | What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming? | Continuous |
| 29.602 | What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 29.379 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 28.827 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 28.827 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 28.762 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 27.951 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 27.923 | What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 27.461 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 27.401 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 27.324 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.310 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 26.958 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 26.884 | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 25.841 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
| 25.785 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.784 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.605 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.474 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.352 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 25.254 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024) | Continuous |
| 25.106 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | Binary |
| 25.093 | Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? | Binary |
| 24.960 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.930 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 24.739 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 24.613 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 24.540 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 24.449 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 24.449 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 24.449 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 24.449 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 24.363 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.071 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.026 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 24.026 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 23.780 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.780 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.780 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.611 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| 23.386 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 23.310 | What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review? | Continuous |
| 23.240 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 23.211 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.158 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 23.098 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 22.893 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 22.611 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 22.585 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.465 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.368 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 22.277 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 22.255 | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.094 | Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023? | Binary |
| 21.864 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 21.864 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 21.864 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 21.864 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 21.864 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 21.831 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 21.362 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 21.299 | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024)) | Continuous |
| 21.279 | What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022? | Continuous |
| 20.787 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.739 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.621 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 20.495 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 20.222 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 19.947 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 19.896 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 19.891 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 19.887 | BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 19.585 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 19.384 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 19.359 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.032 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 18.956 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 18.689 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 18.577 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.347 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 18.146 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 17.928 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.910 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 17.582 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 17.305 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 17.156 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 17.115 | What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 17.074 | What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)? | Continuous |
| 17.056 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats) | Continuous |
| 16.290 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 16.129 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 16.074 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 16.044 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 15.911 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 15.188 | Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza? | Binary |
| 14.947 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.780 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-24) | Continuous |
| 14.595 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 14.435 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party) | Continuous |
| 14.408 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 14.330 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 14.307 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 13.561 | Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022? | Binary |
| 13.505 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| 13.504 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 13.500 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 13.032 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 13.032 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 13.021 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.676 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 12.658 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.516 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 12.488 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2024) | Continuous |
| 12.481 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 12.331 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 12.325 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 12.217 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.167 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 12.099 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 11.911 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 11.859 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| 11.852 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| 11.777 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.702 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| 11.684 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 11.670 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2024) | Continuous |
| 11.620 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-24) | Continuous |
| 11.576 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 11.332 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 11.178 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 11.165 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 11.157 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 10.927 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.917 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 10.912 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 10.912 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 10.912 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 10.912 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 10.912 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 10.714 | What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 10.412 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 10.213 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.150 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 10.119 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 10.066 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 9.849 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.795 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 9.782 | How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024? (Q3 (ends Sep 2024)) | Continuous |
| 9.531 | What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? | Continuous |
| 9.531 | What will be the Shiller P/E ratio of the S&P 500 on January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 9.497 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 9.385 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-24) | Continuous |
| 9.335 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 9.335 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 9.303 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance) | Continuous |
| 9.232 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| 9.075 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 8.986 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022? | Continuous |
| 8.900 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 8.838 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 8.501 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 8.489 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 8.313 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP) | Continuous |
| 8.180 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Asa Hutchinson) | Continuous |
| 8.143 | How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 8.038 | How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024? (Q2 (ends Jun 2024)) | Continuous |
| 8.020 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis) | Continuous |
| 8.000 | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | Binary |
| 7.877 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 7.866 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 7.733 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| 7.700 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-24) | Continuous |
| 7.669 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru) | Continuous |
| 7.612 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 7.612 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.537 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 7.495 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 7.495 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 7.477 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.477 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 7.305 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 7.305 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 7.305 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 7.222 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 7.212 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| 7.157 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 6.953 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 6.710 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 6.670 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 6.618 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 6.577 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 6.537 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
| 6.529 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 6.425 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 6.422 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.388 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.350 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP) | Continuous |
| 6.348 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| 6.218 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Continuous |
| 6.185 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| 6.184 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.133 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 6.100 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 5.898 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin) | Continuous |
| 5.661 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 5.649 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 5.643 | What percentage of the African Union’s budget will be contributed by its member states in the budget for fiscal year 2025? | Continuous |
| 5.638 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| 5.597 | What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023? | Continuous |
| 5.531 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | Continuous |
| 5.432 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| 5.277 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 5.203 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 4.967 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 4.774 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 4.683 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| 4.656 | What will be the lowest monthly value for US total capacity utilization in 2023? | Continuous |
| 4.362 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| 4.057 | What will the seasonally adjusted month over month headline CPI inflation be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-24) | Continuous |
| 3.947 | What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.921 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 3.882 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 3.794 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 3.743 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 3.737 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (July 2024) | Continuous |
| 3.685 | Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
| 3.574 | What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.499 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| 3.482 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales) | Continuous |
| 3.464 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.065 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 2.974 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Chris Christie) | Continuous |
| 2.635 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.459 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| 2.452 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 2.243 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 2.207 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.106 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31) | Binary |
| 2.089 | Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?? | Binary |
| 2.026 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 1.949 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 1.877 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.877 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 1.853 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 1.832 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 1.808 | Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 1.733 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party) | Continuous |
| 1.696 | When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
| 1.691 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 1.629 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 1.588 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 1.517 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.478 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 1.457 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.420 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 1.420 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 1.412 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 1.368 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.335 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.305 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
| 1.300 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.193 | When will US government 10-year bond yields next exceed 2-year bond yields? | Continuous |
| 1.182 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022? | Continuous |
| 1.134 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 1.116 | How many deaths from terrorism in 2020? | Continuous |
| 1.107 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.028 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 1.017 | What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 0.961 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.950 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.797 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.796 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 0.771 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK) | Continuous |
| 0.730 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.636 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.629 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.628 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 0.628 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 0.628 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 0.617 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 0.617 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 0.616 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 0.580 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 0.578 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 0.569 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| 0.566 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces) | Binary |
| 0.565 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.542 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 0.523 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.523 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.521 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.521 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.518 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.494 | When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels? | Continuous |
| 0.491 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 0.486 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 0.469 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.461 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.454 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.450 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.449 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 0.443 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | Continuous |
| 0.410 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 0.406 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 0.372 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.355 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.261 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 0.246 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.221 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.207 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.193 | Before 2032, will the US declare a new public health emergency due to an infectious disease outbreak or bioterrorist attack? | Binary |
| 0.151 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.112 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 0.103 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.088 | When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)? | Continuous |
| 0.063 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | Binary |
| - | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| - | Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025? | Binary |
| - | Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics? | Binary |
| - | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty) | Binary |
| - | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx) | Binary |
| -0.125 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -0.242 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -0.363 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -0.652 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| -0.719 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| -0.747 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| -0.879 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| -1.114 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| -1.669 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -1.954 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -2.654 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024) | Continuous |
| -3.830 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -4.750 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| -5.596 | When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month? | Continuous |
| -5.952 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| -6.068 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| -6.353 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -8.414 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -8.736 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| -8.818 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | Binary |
| -9.511 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| -9.651 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| -10.448 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -11.505 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -12.487 | Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -13.528 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -15.277 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -15.951 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| -19.759 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -20.709 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -22.004 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -24.786 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| -24.948 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| -26.399 | How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023? | Continuous |
| -26.977 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -28.771 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -30.282 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | Continuous |
| -30.333 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -31.713 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -35.416 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -36.722 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -39.222 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -40.018 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -44.400 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -50.798 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -51.174 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel) | Binary |
| -52.164 | How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022? | Continuous |
| -52.580 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
| -55.143 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -55.451 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -59.659 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -60.341 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -64.606 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -84.777 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -85.596 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -110.995 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -114.729 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -158.131 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China) | Binary |
| -165.616 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -208.201 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -231.570 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
| -233.004 | Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States) | Binary |
| -266.000 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -336.023 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |