Arqiduka

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.734k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
92.736	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
92.734	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
92.726	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
92.266	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
92.183	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
92.102	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
91.755	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
91.134	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
85.936	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
85.846	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
85.685	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
85.323	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
85.130	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
84.782	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
84.674	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
83.191	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
81.273	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
80.262	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
79.891	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
79.013	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
78.948	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
78.545	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
78.486	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
78.143	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
78.090	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
78.073	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
77.839	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
77.634	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
77.634	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
77.561	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
77.160	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
76.610	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
76.610	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
76.610	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
76.234	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
76.232	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
76.232	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
76.162	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
76.162	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
76.162	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
75.365	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
75.338	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
75.257	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
74.677	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
74.321	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
74.273	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
73.290	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
72.445	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
71.677	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
71.014	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
70.975	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
69.911	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
69.875	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Seattle Mariners)	Binary
69.699	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
69.601	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
69.528	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
69.256	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
67.564	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
67.475	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
67.475	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
66.978	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
66.761	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
65.673	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
65.163	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
64.886	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
64.022	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
63.656	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
63.176	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
62.791	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
62.789	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
62.788	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Colorado Rockies)	Binary
62.788	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago Cubs)	Binary
62.788	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Washington Nationals)	Binary
61.682	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
60.606	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
60.606	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
60.606	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
60.606	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
60.606	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
58.956	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2022)	Binary
58.490	Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?	Binary
58.227	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
57.975	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
55.366	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
51.510	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
51.293	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
50.947	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
48.427	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
46.754	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
44.202	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
44.187	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
42.849	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
42.098	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
42.045	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Miami Marlins)	Binary
42.039	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
41.552	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
39.690	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Oakland Athletics)	Binary
39.416	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
39.057	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
37.672	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
34.372	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
33.428	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
29.370	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
28.863	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
28.416	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
26.722	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
26.439	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
20.625	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
15.941	Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?	Binary
14.692	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
10.425	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
9.292	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
7.002	By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?	Binary
6.828	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
4.826	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
3.061	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
1.549	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
0.384	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
-	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
-1.262	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
-1.766	When will the 30-days Google Trends interest for the term "China protests" peak?	Continuous
-3.722	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-3.773	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
-9.257	Will the Metaculus question about Russian troops in Kyiv in 2022 resolve ambiguously?	Binary
-11.758	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
-17.504	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
-18.628	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
-19.988	[Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?	Binary
-22.607	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-23.233	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-29.145	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
-30.115	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
-31.566	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Russian Ruble ₽)	Binary
-41.847	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
-42.766	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
-50.317	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Argentine Peso $)	Binary
-53.247	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-88.142	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
-103.651	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
-172.613	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
-192.765	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
-217.114	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
-285.728	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary