Arqiduka

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.658k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
103.249	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
95.968	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
92.591	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
92.584	Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?	Binary
92.576	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
92.576	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
92.028	Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?	Binary
91.995	Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?	Binary
89.168	Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024)	Binary
88.349	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
85.430	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
84.792	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
84.791	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
84.647	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah)	Binary
84.427	Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?	Binary
84.075	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
83.170	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
81.915	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
78.161	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025)	Binary
76.546	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
76.416	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government)	Binary
74.305	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
74.236	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
73.119	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
70.631	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
69.847	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
68.982	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
68.675	What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?	Continuous
67.804	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
67.689	Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
67.551	Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?	Binary
67.261	Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?	Binary
66.709	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
65.937	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
65.937	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
65.479	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
64.847	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
64.411	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
63.967	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
61.956	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
61.956	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
61.956	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
61.558	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
61.542	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
61.444	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
60.934	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
60.421	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
60.051	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
59.913	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
58.481	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
58.439	On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?	Binary
58.426	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
58.239	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
58.183	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
57.841	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
57.841	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
56.458	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel)	Binary
56.446	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
55.658	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
54.829	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
54.807	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
54.686	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
53.920	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
53.568	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
51.957	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?	Binary
51.220	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
50.638	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
50.344	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
50.307	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
49.585	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
49.029	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
48.933	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
48.896	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
47.556	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
46.664	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
46.320	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
44.296	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
43.457	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
43.345	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
43.186	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
42.394	Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?	Binary
42.313	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
41.990	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
41.907	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
36.377	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
36.244	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
35.902	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
34.957	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
32.172	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
31.882	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
30.111	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
27.109	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
26.303	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
24.175	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
24.120	Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?	Binary
22.772	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
21.781	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
21.738	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
21.285	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
20.397	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
18.970	Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?	Binary
18.734	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
16.348	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
15.099	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
14.125	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
14.088	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
13.679	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories))	Binary
12.600	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
11.932	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
11.775	Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour))	Binary
11.328	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
8.983	Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?	Binary
8.774	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
8.010	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
3.129	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
2.835	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
0.205	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
-	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
-	Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections?	Binary
-	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
-	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas)	Binary
-	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
-2.137	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-2.778	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-2.907	Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?	Binary
-2.995	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-3.878	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-7.656	Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?	Binary
-9.879	Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?	Binary
-10.005	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-12.010	Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?	Binary
-13.228	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-15.094	Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?	Binary
-20.057	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-20.108	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
-24.053	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-24.869	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-31.294	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-31.992	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
-32.103	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
-32.103	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
-32.179	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
-33.554	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-38.964	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
-41.813	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-42.412	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
-59.842	Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?	Binary
-59.904	Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-85.919	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-86.472	Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?	Binary
-87.281	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-88.446	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-94.263	Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?	Binary
-100.734	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-155.359	Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested)	Binary
-162.723	What will China's total population be in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-187.523	When will US government 10-year bond yields next exceed 2-year bond yields?	Continuous
-215.619	What will China's total population be in these years? (2022)	Continuous
-564.332	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary