M

User

View Profile
Duration:2 years
Time Period:2022 - 2023
Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.
We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.
Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.
1.215kTotal Score
ScoreQuestionQuestion Type
95.459On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?Binary
94.038In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?Binary
85.209In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?Binary
82.138On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?Binary
80.567On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?Binary
74.150In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?Binary
70.824On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?Binary
65.306In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?Binary
63.864Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?Binary
62.142In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?Binary
60.337In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?Binary
54.785Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?Binary
52.884Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?Binary
52.884In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?Binary
50.956On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?Binary
49.001On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?Binary
41.378By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?Binary
40.898Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?Binary
40.898In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?Binary
37.261Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?Binary
36.663Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?Binary
36.663In 2023, will Tether de-peg?Binary
34.497On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?Binary
30.060In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?Binary
30.060On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?Binary
25.478On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?Binary
25.478On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?Binary
23.129In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?Binary
22.998Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?Binary
10.212In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?Binary
3.995Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?Binary
-9.705In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?Binary
-14.723In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?Binary
-16.015In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?Binary
-24.364Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?Binary
-24.365In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?Binary
-34.721In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?Binary
-42.471In 2023 will any new country join NATO?Binary
-45.574Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?Binary
-106.840Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?Binary