118.836 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
113.720 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
107.654 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
106.440 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
97.748 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
92.157 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
90.913 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
90.275 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
88.445 | What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
87.533 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
87.377 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
86.514 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
86.514 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
85.665 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
85.316 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
85.316 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
85.316 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
84.923 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
83.955 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
83.897 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
83.075 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
81.958 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
80.819 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
80.773 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
80.757 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
80.356 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
80.085 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
75.303 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
74.925 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
74.560 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
74.132 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
73.471 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
72.716 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
72.716 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
72.716 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
72.716 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
72.716 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
72.716 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
72.716 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
72.716 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
72.716 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
72.716 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
72.716 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
72.710 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
72.702 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
72.700 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
72.700 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
72.699 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
72.184 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
72.181 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
71.522 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
71.496 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
71.273 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
71.155 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
71.155 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
71.155 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
71.155 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
71.152 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
71.085 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
70.881 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
70.765 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
70.392 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
70.010 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
69.665 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
69.291 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
69.271 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
68.801 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
68.717 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
68.692 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
68.471 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
68.399 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
68.337 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
68.048 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
68.048 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
68.048 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
68.014 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
67.614 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
66.659 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
66.561 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
66.499 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
66.440 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
65.889 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
64.602 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
64.177 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
63.930 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
63.052 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
62.713 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
61.269 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
60.901 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
59.869 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
58.761 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
58.741 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
57.829 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
57.413 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
57.115 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
57.085 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
56.968 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
56.580 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
56.043 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
55.246 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
54.849 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
54.840 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
54.455 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
54.416 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
53.583 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
53.518 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
53.228 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
52.991 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
52.832 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
51.369 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
51.037 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
50.766 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
50.501 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
50.141 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
49.297 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
48.982 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
48.982 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
47.185 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
46.538 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
46.538 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
46.538 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
46.329 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
45.484 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
45.403 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
44.773 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
44.452 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
44.452 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
44.116 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
42.871 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
42.856 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
42.701 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
42.150 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
42.056 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
41.687 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
41.588 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
41.355 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
41.224 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
41.131 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
41.058 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 13, 2024) | Continuous |
40.645 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
40.370 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
39.844 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
39.478 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
38.985 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
37.495 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
37.216 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
36.714 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
35.746 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
35.121 | How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season? | Continuous |
34.218 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
32.693 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
32.256 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
31.141 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
30.612 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
30.604 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
29.957 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
26.620 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
26.514 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
25.821 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
25.687 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
25.259 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
24.296 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
22.199 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
22.058 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
20.657 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
19.636 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
19.636 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
18.572 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
18.496 | How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022? | Continuous |
18.082 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
17.644 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
17.370 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
16.338 | What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? | Continuous |
14.580 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
11.468 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
10.395 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
8.438 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
8.152 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
7.869 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
7.068 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
6.280 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
5.982 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
5.619 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
5.399 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
5.295 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
5.213 | Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again? | Binary |
5.212 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
5.037 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
4.883 | How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report? | Continuous |
4.779 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
4.663 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
4.452 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
3.854 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
3.836 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
3.836 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
3.804 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
3.797 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
3.779 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
3.770 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
3.733 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
3.697 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
3.547 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
3.543 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
3.103 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
3.055 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
3.011 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
2.986 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
2.921 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
2.903 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
2.861 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
2.785 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
2.442 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
2.427 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
2.420 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
2.122 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
2.032 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
1.952 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
1.866 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
1.827 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
1.826 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
1.806 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
1.769 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
1.485 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
1.366 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
1.292 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
1.241 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
1.217 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
1.200 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
1.026 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
0.973 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
0.863 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
0.793 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
0.793 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
0.770 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
0.715 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
0.688 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
0.687 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
0.683 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
0.683 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
0.680 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation? | Continuous |
0.680 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
0.679 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
0.677 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
0.674 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
0.671 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
0.669 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
0.648 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.603 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
0.559 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
0.559 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
0.555 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
0.549 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
0.549 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
0.455 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.421 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
0.381 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
0.329 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
0.162 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
0.162 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
0.162 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
-0.563 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
-2.865 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
-4.077 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
-5.391 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
-6.664 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
-7.541 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
-9.440 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
-9.522 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
-9.587 | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Binary |
-11.637 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
-13.659 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
-14.442 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
-15.896 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
-17.485 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
-27.232 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
-35.700 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
-72.463 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
-77.205 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
-102.752 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
-109.049 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
-151.293 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
-161.656 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
-196.050 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |