jimmyred

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2.643k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.576	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
87.024	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
86.733	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
73.499	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
72.369	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
71.248	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
66.154	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
63.622	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
61.779	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
61.018	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
59.374	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
56.722	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
55.656	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
55.513	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
55.357	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
53.406	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
52.240	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
48.726	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
46.324	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
44.477	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
43.511	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
42.160	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
40.709	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
40.350	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
39.464	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
36.131	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
35.349	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
35.281	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
35.055	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
33.673	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
31.982	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez)	Binary
31.361	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
31.318	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
30.670	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
30.646	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz)	Binary
29.996	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
29.815	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (George Russell)	Binary
29.815	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Lewis Hamilton)	Binary
29.815	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Max Verstappen)	Binary
29.084	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
28.449	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
28.431	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
28.064	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Charles Leclerc)	Binary
27.683	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
26.954	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
26.451	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
26.359	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
25.876	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
25.607	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
24.347	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
24.063	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
22.937	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
22.849	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
21.915	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
21.814	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
21.662	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
21.466	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
21.074	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
20.922	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
20.584	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
20.435	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
17.968	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
17.695	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
16.280	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
16.271	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
15.861	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
14.138	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
13.329	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
12.689	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
11.841	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
11.449	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
9.877	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
9.090	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
8.848	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
8.604	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
7.523	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
7.120	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
6.706	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
6.386	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
6.273	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
6.179	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
6.049	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
5.802	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
5.684	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
5.642	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
5.337	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
5.257	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
5.234	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
5.173	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
5.157	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
5.079	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
5.024	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
4.892	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
4.892	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
4.820	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
4.746	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
4.691	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
4.649	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
4.571	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
4.418	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
4.207	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
4.206	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.088	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
4.088	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
4.088	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
4.088	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
4.088	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
4.008	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
3.917	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
3.904	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
3.868	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
3.868	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
3.868	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
3.721	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
3.490	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
3.490	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
3.474	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
3.461	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
3.226	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
3.103	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
2.515	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
2.452	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
2.393	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
2.019	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
1.970	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
1.526	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
1.437	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
0.911	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
0.410	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
-	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
-	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
-0.415	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-7.572	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-9.261	[Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?	Binary
-13.698	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
-14.653	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-25.555	Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?	Binary
-26.769	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-31.405	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-33.171	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
-63.865	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary