jimmyred

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.248k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.806	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
97.605	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
97.500	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
95.569	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
92.285	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
92.136	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
91.692	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
90.962	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
90.454	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
89.944	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
88.299	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
77.807	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
75.657	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
71.019	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
67.903	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
67.304	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
67.257	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
67.163	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
66.924	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
66.895	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
66.837	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
66.102	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
65.705	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
65.704	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
65.704	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
65.704	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
65.704	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
65.704	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
65.704	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
65.704	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
65.703	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
65.703	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
65.703	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
65.703	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
65.703	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
65.703	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
65.703	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
65.624	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
65.536	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
65.446	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
63.254	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
62.785	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
60.221	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
59.991	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
58.382	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
58.116	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
58.021	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
57.459	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
57.437	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
54.162	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
53.348	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
52.576	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
51.822	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
51.007	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
50.808	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
50.497	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
50.129	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
48.212	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
47.972	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
45.945	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
44.557	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
44.479	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
43.414	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
43.378	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
41.327	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
40.293	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
39.618	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
38.510	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
38.228	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
37.623	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
37.582	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
37.097	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
37.036	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
36.662	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
35.436	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
34.934	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
33.419	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
33.349	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
33.311	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
32.760	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
32.324	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
32.203	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
31.854	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
31.622	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
30.672	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
30.535	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
30.166	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
29.767	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
29.747	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
27.142	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.287	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
25.239	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
25.210	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
25.199	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
25.162	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
24.587	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
22.549	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
21.349	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
21.244	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
20.814	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
20.738	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
20.297	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
20.211	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
19.760	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
19.476	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.228	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
18.342	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
16.426	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
15.561	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
15.370	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
14.994	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
14.813	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.477	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
13.355	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
11.695	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
11.262	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
8.717	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
7.937	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
7.713	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
6.950	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
6.854	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
5.550	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
5.528	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
4.652	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
4.354	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
4.313	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
4.067	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
3.797	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
3.783	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
3.565	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.136	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.095	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
2.219	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
1.756	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
1.504	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
0.995	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
0.641	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
0.002	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-0.000	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
-1.057	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-2.107	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.676	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.528	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-11.710	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
-12.798	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
-16.158	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-20.407	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-25.363	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-29.663	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
-31.577	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
-37.601	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-44.191	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-66.642	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-166.058	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

jimmyred

User

jimmyred