jimmyred

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.864k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
84.184	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
81.062	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
76.936	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
76.252	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
76.180	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
73.887	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
73.744	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
73.035	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
72.232	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
70.072	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
69.742	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
69.027	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
68.999	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
68.938	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
68.172	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
64.552	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
64.336	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
64.190	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
59.518	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
58.650	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
57.601	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
57.506	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
57.306	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
56.881	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
56.496	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
56.194	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
51.397	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
51.157	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
50.443	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
50.024	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
49.286	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
48.948	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
48.948	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
48.948	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
48.498	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
47.550	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
47.460	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
46.993	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
46.692	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
46.281	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
45.993	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
45.993	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
45.789	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
45.676	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
44.428	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
44.323	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
43.990	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
43.907	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
43.530	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
42.490	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
42.477	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
42.406	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
41.071	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
39.380	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
38.940	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
36.401	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
36.354	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
35.480	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
34.703	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
34.599	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
33.680	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
33.679	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
33.356	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
33.342	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
32.454	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
32.300	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
32.231	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
32.206	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
31.991	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
31.657	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
31.016	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
30.508	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
29.657	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
28.378	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
27.499	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
27.328	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
25.909	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
25.261	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
25.174	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
25.076	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
24.342	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
23.858	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
23.701	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
23.393	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
22.802	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
22.432	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
21.308	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
17.911	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
16.909	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
15.480	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
14.783	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
13.870	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
13.538	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
10.478	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
9.698	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
9.388	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
8.294	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
8.137	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
8.022	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
7.798	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
7.740	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
7.353	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
7.275	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
6.827	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
5.661	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
5.381	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
5.236	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
4.909	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
4.355	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
4.355	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
4.245	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
3.706	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
3.432	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
3.385	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
3.282	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.043	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
2.744	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
1.984	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
1.582	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.440	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
-	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
-2.115	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-3.940	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-7.927	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
-10.817	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-11.491	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-13.510	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
-13.672	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-14.482	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-25.041	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-73.461	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-103.687	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-129.220	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary