| 99.712 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 98.358 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.200 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.605 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 97.473 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.462 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.315 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 96.185 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.785 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.065 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 95.054 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 95.054 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.751 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.741 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.738 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.949 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.479 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 92.437 | Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024? | Binary |
| 92.278 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 92.023 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 91.917 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 91.705 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 90.367 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.282 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.188 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 89.281 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 88.548 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 87.281 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 87.281 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 87.221 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 86.805 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 86.745 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 86.745 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 86.745 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 85.741 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 85.120 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 85.120 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 85.089 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 84.926 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 84.565 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.561 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.018 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.342 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 81.117 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 76.148 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 76.042 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 74.541 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 74.541 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 73.444 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 72.722 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 71.697 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 67.947 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 67.904 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 67.726 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.641 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 67.527 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.133 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 66.389 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 65.986 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 65.887 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 65.454 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 61.635 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 59.884 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 59.592 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.597 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.082 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 56.593 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 55.986 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 55.986 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 55.922 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 55.880 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 55.716 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 55.716 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 55.716 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 55.319 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 55.225 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 54.867 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 54.625 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 54.235 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 53.995 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 53.823 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 53.312 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 52.731 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 52.573 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 52.303 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 51.955 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 51.647 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 50.430 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 49.245 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 48.200 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 47.738 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 46.642 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 46.381 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.176 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 45.331 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 42.445 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 41.617 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 41.509 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 41.311 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 41.146 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 40.272 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 40.262 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 40.197 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 39.710 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 39.120 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 39.120 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 38.727 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 37.796 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 37.473 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 37.207 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.891 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 35.115 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 34.502 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 34.443 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
| 34.268 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 33.835 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 32.611 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 32.156 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 31.673 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 31.634 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 31.619 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.847 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 30.448 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 29.800 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 29.733 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 28.816 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 28.045 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 28.045 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 28.044 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 28.044 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 27.332 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 26.960 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 26.092 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 26.014 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 26.007 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 26.007 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 25.888 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 25.605 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 25.605 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 25.605 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 25.605 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 25.571 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 25.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 25.527 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 25.527 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 25.527 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 25.527 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 25.503 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 25.503 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 25.503 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 25.503 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 25.503 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 25.496 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 25.496 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 25.463 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 25.293 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 25.026 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 24.442 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 24.310 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
| 22.806 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 22.632 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 22.541 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 22.333 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 22.272 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 22.236 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.887 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 21.196 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 20.337 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 19.761 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.425 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.413 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 18.059 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 17.974 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 17.934 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 17.825 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 16.340 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 16.248 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 16.052 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 16.009 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.831 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 14.814 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.898 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 13.675 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 12.685 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 11.469 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 11.314 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 10.785 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 10.758 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 10.599 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 10.007 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 9.903 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 9.574 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 8.924 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 8.853 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 8.775 | Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023? | Binary |
| 8.266 | Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again? | Binary |
| 8.013 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 7.923 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.593 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.586 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 7.387 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 7.216 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 7.050 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 6.535 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.410 | Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023? | Binary |
| 5.926 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
| 5.886 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.707 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| 5.631 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023? | Binary |
| 5.620 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 5.319 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 4.599 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.271 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 3.743 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 3.558 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 3.234 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.192 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 2.618 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 2.615 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.328 | Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023? | Binary |
| 2.153 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.994 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| 1.506 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 1.002 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.471 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.144 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) | Binary |
| 0.075 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang) | Binary |
| 0.000 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| - | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| - | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.000 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -0.658 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
| -0.862 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| -1.062 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| -2.002 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| -3.361 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -3.665 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| -5.764 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -7.427 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -9.149 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| -9.771 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -10.567 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| -12.972 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -14.334 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| -15.148 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| -15.405 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| -16.586 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| -18.615 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -18.870 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -19.207 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| -20.074 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand) | Binary |
| -21.899 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| -27.256 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -30.920 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| -31.633 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -34.623 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
| -54.763 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -58.292 | Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia) | Binary |
| -63.892 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -68.028 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -69.323 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| -105.453 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -119.653 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -144.727 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -152.549 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -153.068 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -267.379 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -292.180 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -353.513 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |