valentin.vincendon

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.339k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
124.379	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
113.371	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
98.191	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
97.996	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
95.056	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.914	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
91.511	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
91.186	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
90.299	How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024?	Continuous
87.936	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
85.204	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
84.549	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
84.020	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
83.312	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
83.297	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
82.333	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
78.574	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
78.122	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
77.092	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
74.273	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
74.188	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
74.188	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
74.188	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
74.188	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
74.188	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
73.303	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
72.307	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
69.342	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
67.804	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
67.111	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
66.191	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
65.101	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
62.463	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
62.103	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
61.451	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
60.675	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
59.865	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
59.109	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
57.427	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
56.041	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
55.187	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
54.664	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
54.223	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
51.959	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
51.125	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
49.951	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
49.101	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
48.553	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
47.622	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
47.619	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
46.334	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
44.289	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
44.188	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
43.891	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
43.079	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
42.596	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
41.323	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
41.323	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
40.364	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
36.765	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
36.390	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
36.364	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
33.254	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
32.835	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
32.588	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
32.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
32.363	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
31.803	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
30.871	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
30.829	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
30.778	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
30.723	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
30.335	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
27.471	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024)	Binary
26.028	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
25.957	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
25.644	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
25.037	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
24.512	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
24.433	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
23.930	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
23.232	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
22.738	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
22.588	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
22.183	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
22.146	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
22.120	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
22.027	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
21.162	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
20.316	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
19.560	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.239	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
19.083	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
19.071	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
19.010	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
18.601	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
18.397	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
18.250	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
17.752	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
17.534	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
17.459	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
17.296	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
16.762	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
16.320	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
16.127	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
16.127	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
16.115	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
15.987	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
15.986	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
15.889	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
15.873	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
15.394	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
14.709	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
14.369	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
12.397	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
11.817	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
11.759	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
11.561	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
11.224	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
11.193	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
10.812	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
10.570	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
9.431	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
8.859	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
8.534	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
8.322	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
7.580	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
7.481	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
7.481	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
7.481	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
7.481	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
7.481	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
7.481	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
7.481	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
7.480	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
7.467	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
7.322	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
7.286	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
7.286	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
7.286	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
7.258	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
7.030	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
7.030	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
6.804	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
6.405	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.264	Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians in 2023?	Binary
5.744	What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023?	Continuous
5.606	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
4.670	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
4.547	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
4.530	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
4.148	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
4.068	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
3.400	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
3.361	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
3.349	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
3.152	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
2.543	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
2.441	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
2.320	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
2.101	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
2.072	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
1.935	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
1.906	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
1.757	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.707	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
1.185	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
1.157	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
1.126	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.792	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
0.707	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
0.117	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
-	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
-	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-0.823	What percentage of the popular vote will presidential candidate Tharman Shanmugaratnam receive in the 2023 Singaporean presidential election?	Continuous
-6.829	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-9.802	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-10.982	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-11.912	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
-18.489	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-18.936	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-19.370	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-23.560	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-38.410	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-41.271	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-41.885	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-54.296	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-57.024	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-60.590	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-94.416	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary
-137.129	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
-174.097	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

valentin.vincendon

User

valentin.vincendon