148.176 | When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions? | Continuous |
134.756 | When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts? | Continuous |
116.332 | What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2023) | Continuous |
99.685 | When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram? | Continuous |
96.845 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people? | Binary |
96.533 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
96.121 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
95.767 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
95.044 | Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft) | Binary |
94.923 | Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA) | Binary |
94.874 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
94.403 | Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2) | Binary |
94.315 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
94.075 | Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024? | Binary |
93.595 | Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control) | Binary |
92.195 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
91.788 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
90.119 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
89.679 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
89.513 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
88.393 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
86.909 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
86.078 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
85.780 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
84.830 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
84.415 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
84.273 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
84.040 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
83.615 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
83.244 | What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi? | Continuous |
82.219 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
80.463 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
79.589 | West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Ghana) | Binary |
79.573 | Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024? | Binary |
79.554 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
79.048 | In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area? | Binary |
77.615 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024? | Binary |
75.179 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
74.835 | In 2023 will the UK hold a general election? | Binary |
74.377 | On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK? | Binary |
73.441 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
72.236 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
70.868 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
69.668 | Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft? | Continuous |
69.655 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
69.211 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Meretz) | Binary |
69.211 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Joint List) | Binary |
69.210 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Religious Zionist) | Binary |
69.210 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (UTJ) | Binary |
69.033 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
69.016 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
68.688 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Shas) | Binary |
67.444 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
67.421 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yisrael Beiteinu) | Binary |
67.101 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
66.879 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Labor) | Binary |
66.499 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (New Hope) | Binary |
65.580 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
64.684 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
64.574 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
64.227 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants) | Binary |
64.138 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
63.408 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
63.244 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Zionist Spirit) | Binary |
62.050 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
61.684 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
61.466 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
59.886 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
59.461 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
59.391 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
59.214 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
59.083 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
58.362 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
57.704 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
57.357 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
57.275 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
56.370 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
56.146 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
55.694 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
55.617 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
55.482 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
55.393 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
55.223 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
54.928 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
54.924 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
54.918 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
54.601 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
54.478 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
54.147 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
53.290 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
52.042 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets) | Binary |
52.040 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
52.036 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
52.008 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
51.964 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
51.646 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
51.468 | On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour? | Binary |
51.295 | In 2023, will Tether de-peg? | Binary |
51.260 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
50.871 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
50.602 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
50.433 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
50.113 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
50.065 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
49.934 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
49.923 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
48.940 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
48.505 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
48.230 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
47.484 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Blue and White) | Binary |
47.297 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
47.294 | On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating? | Binary |
47.267 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
46.684 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
46.319 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
46.317 | In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30? | Binary |
46.242 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
45.813 | What will inflation in the UK be, given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership candidate contest? (2022) | Continuous |
45.370 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
45.102 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
44.494 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
44.387 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2022) | Continuous |
44.275 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
44.202 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
42.572 | How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024? | Continuous |
42.194 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
42.101 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
41.116 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
40.546 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
40.372 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Yesh Atid) | Binary |
40.225 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
40.073 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
39.919 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2023) | Continuous |
39.387 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2023) | Continuous |
38.167 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
38.141 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
38.074 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
37.847 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
37.655 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
37.362 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
37.335 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
37.181 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
36.210 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
35.474 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
34.946 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
33.706 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
33.696 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
33.666 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
33.659 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
33.079 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
32.124 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
31.692 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
29.696 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
29.479 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
29.088 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
28.883 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
28.795 | How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000) | Binary |
23.777 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
23.549 | On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment? | Binary |
23.132 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
22.972 | In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action? | Binary |
20.826 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
20.776 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
20.299 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
19.999 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
18.908 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
18.486 | What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023) | Continuous |
18.383 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
18.143 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
17.341 | Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
17.142 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
16.026 | In 2023 will AI win a programming competition? | Binary |
15.002 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
13.848 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
13.829 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
13.560 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
12.824 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
10.417 | By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt? | Binary |
10.091 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
8.890 | When will GPT-4 be announced? | Continuous |
8.381 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
8.305 | When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | Continuous |
7.865 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
7.550 | In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines? | Binary |
7.539 | What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023) | Continuous |
7.324 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
6.976 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023? | Binary |
6.718 | Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election? | Binary |
6.663 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
6.628 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
6.014 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
5.530 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
5.171 | Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023? | Binary |
5.128 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
4.334 | Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
4.288 | Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
4.152 | What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023? | Continuous |
4.071 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Binary |
2.549 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
2.111 | Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries? | Binary |
1.404 | Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
0.852 | Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022? | Binary |
0.836 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps) | Binary |
0.836 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May) | Binary |
0.836 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman) | Binary |
0.830 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt) | Binary |
0.830 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace) | Binary |
0.645 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant) | Binary |
0.516 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
0.473 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson) | Binary |
0.178 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak) | Binary |
-0.277 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
-0.872 | Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
-1.928 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
-6.012 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
-7.964 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
-16.204 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
-18.959 | Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)? | Continuous |
-19.806 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
-21.632 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
-23.155 | When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson? | Continuous |
-23.656 | Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022? | Binary |
-24.331 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
-24.930 | In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction? | Binary |
-28.123 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
-32.071 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
-34.230 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
-36.923 | Which party will have a serving Prime Minister following Israel’s 2022 elections? (Likud) | Binary |
-42.535 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
-48.319 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
-55.945 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
-58.020 | Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024? | Binary |
-61.171 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
-79.148 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
-88.130 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
-104.613 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
-132.913 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
-136.364 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
-143.076 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
-172.318 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Continuous |
-223.411 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
-269.675 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2023 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
-288.959 | Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-413.216 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |