soothsayer

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2.931k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
73.560	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
72.158	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
71.423	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
71.012	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
70.861	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
68.599	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
64.904	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
63.294	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Marine Le Pen)	Binary
62.997	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
62.976	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
60.818	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
57.842	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
56.850	What will be the percentage of ED visits with COVID-Like Illness (CLI) symptoms in Virginia for the week ending April 2nd, 2022?	Continuous
55.952	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
55.198	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
53.963	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
50.401	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
47.868	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
46.655	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
45.948	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
45.433	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
44.456	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
44.128	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
43.071	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
42.223	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
41.428	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
41.070	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
41.064	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
40.281	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
39.421	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
38.863	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
38.828	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on April 1, 2022?	Continuous
37.995	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
37.665	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
36.825	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
36.015	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
35.940	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 1st of April, 2022?	Continuous
35.643	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
34.672	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
34.649	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
32.192	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
31.072	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
30.724	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
29.351	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
28.435	Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving?	Binary
27.888	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
25.476	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
25.126	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
24.493	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
23.794	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
23.239	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
23.083	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
21.964	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
21.621	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
20.116	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
19.758	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
19.755	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
19.012	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
18.958	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
18.324	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
17.844	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
17.693	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
17.580	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Élisabeth Borne)	Binary
17.434	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
16.983	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
16.627	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
16.500	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
16.257	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
14.730	Who will be Prime Minister of France on July 10, 2022? (Jean-Luc Mélenchon)	Binary
14.512	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
14.471	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
14.440	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
14.206	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
13.508	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
12.892	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
12.573	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
12.232	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
12.206	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
12.100	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
11.704	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
9.942	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
9.303	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
9.163	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
9.019	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
8.519	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
8.246	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
8.202	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
7.977	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
7.551	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
7.299	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
7.055	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
6.441	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
6.370	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
6.203	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
5.257	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
5.131	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.801	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
4.611	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
4.476	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
4.407	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
4.245	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
4.114	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
3.853	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
3.833	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
3.313	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
3.161	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
2.938	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
2.139	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
1.750	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
1.744	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
1.300	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
0.823	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
0.744	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
0.726	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
0.643	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
0.640	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
0.593	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
0.492	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
0.450	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
0.413	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
0.402	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
0.383	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.383	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
0.383	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
0.383	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
0.383	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.382	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
0.382	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.382	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
0.354	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
0.286	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
0.286	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.286	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
0.286	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.286	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
0.207	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
0.153	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.147	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
0.135	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
0.049	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
0.038	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-0.190	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-0.201	Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?	Binary
-2.369	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-2.556	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
-3.613	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-7.812	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
-9.704	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-9.902	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary