LD

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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12.04k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
99.271	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
99.094	How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024?	Continuous
96.169	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
95.214	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
95.204	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
95.191	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
93.531	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
91.999	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
91.016	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
90.818	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
90.455	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
89.226	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
87.915	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
86.384	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
86.085	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
85.975	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
85.947	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
85.164	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
84.179	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
83.301	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
81.905	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
81.568	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
81.042	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
80.804	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
79.154	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
79.033	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
78.563	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
78.245	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
77.981	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
77.814	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
77.251	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
76.978	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
76.092	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
75.927	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
74.814	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
74.183	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
72.873	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
72.347	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
72.070	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
71.879	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
71.567	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
70.783	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
69.854	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
69.760	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
68.888	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
67.705	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
67.704	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
67.630	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
66.557	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
65.693	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
65.398	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
64.869	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
64.225	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
63.444	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
63.328	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
62.419	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
62.062	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
61.164	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
60.181	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
59.158	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
58.982	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
58.689	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
58.594	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
58.271	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
57.628	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
57.482	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
57.132	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
56.982	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
55.976	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
55.946	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
55.906	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
55.890	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
55.833	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
55.312	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
55.071	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
55.000	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
54.948	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
54.796	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
54.780	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
54.622	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
53.804	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
53.391	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
53.359	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
53.208	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
53.150	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
53.023	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
52.791	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
52.512	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
52.067	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
52.051	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
51.975	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
51.653	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
51.230	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
50.981	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
50.891	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
50.826	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
49.831	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
49.121	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
49.120	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
49.120	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
49.120	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
49.120	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
49.120	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
49.120	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
49.073	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
48.907	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
48.679	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
48.469	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
47.953	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
47.821	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
47.210	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
47.000	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
46.883	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
46.138	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
45.785	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
45.277	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
44.715	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
44.528	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
44.356	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
44.276	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
44.173	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
44.102	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
43.900	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
43.844	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
43.780	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
43.084	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
42.984	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
42.912	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
42.879	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
42.743	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
42.649	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
42.089	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
41.976	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
41.971	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
41.940	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
41.264	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
40.325	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
40.110	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
39.845	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
39.712	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
39.247	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
39.152	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
38.919	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
38.794	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
38.767	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
38.628	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
38.621	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
38.287	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
38.160	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
38.151	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
38.136	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
38.032	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
37.976	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
37.895	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
37.830	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
37.321	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
36.912	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
36.868	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
36.868	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
36.754	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
36.698	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
36.456	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
36.385	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
35.614	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
35.569	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
35.532	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
35.464	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
35.305	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
35.252	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
35.166	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
35.071	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
34.877	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
34.711	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
34.678	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
34.389	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
34.336	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
34.292	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
34.250	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
33.831	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
33.191	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
33.017	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
32.884	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
32.854	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
32.800	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
32.795	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
32.746	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
32.711	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
32.700	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
32.528	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
32.505	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
32.477	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
31.727	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
31.666	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
31.370	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
31.269	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
30.733	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
30.512	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
30.230	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
30.088	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
30.031	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
29.488	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
29.441	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
29.439	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
28.968	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.780	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
28.361	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
28.100	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
28.033	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
27.638	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
27.562	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
27.414	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
27.122	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
27.057	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
27.041	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
26.826	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
26.546	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Short-Term Extension (Less Than Five Years))	Binary
26.506	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024)	Binary
26.484	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
25.667	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
25.655	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
25.653	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.009	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
24.811	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
24.730	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
24.633	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
24.495	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
24.444	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
24.195	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
24.195	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
24.042	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
23.958	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
23.845	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
23.840	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
23.478	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
23.225	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
23.042	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
22.918	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
22.651	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
22.624	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
22.372	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
22.087	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
21.832	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
20.911	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
20.526	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
20.337	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
20.196	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
20.009	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
19.975	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
19.711	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
19.679	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
19.675	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
19.449	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Te Pāti Māori)	Continuous
19.229	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
19.194	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
19.125	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
18.901	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
18.787	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
18.762	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
18.696	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
18.674	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
18.446	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
18.392	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
18.261	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
18.217	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
18.191	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
18.140	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
17.943	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
17.874	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
17.369	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
17.292	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
17.125	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
16.959	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
16.939	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
16.773	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
16.664	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
16.179	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (ACT)	Continuous
16.063	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
15.815	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
15.809	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
15.432	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
15.293	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
15.215	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
15.037	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Los Angeles Dodgers)	Binary
14.949	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
14.943	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
14.743	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
14.503	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
14.492	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
14.120	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
14.106	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
14.025	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
13.941	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
13.833	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Baltimore Orioles)	Binary
13.812	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
13.780	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Green)	Continuous
13.669	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
13.465	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
12.799	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
12.121	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Atlanta Braves)	Binary
12.091	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
12.020	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
11.738	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
11.649	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
11.317	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.259	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (National)	Continuous
11.193	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
11.190	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.923	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
10.747	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
10.366	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
10.301	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
10.147	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
10.103	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
10.023	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
9.746	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
9.513	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
9.382	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
9.316	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
9.260	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
9.190	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
9.190	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
9.185	Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season?	Binary
8.455	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
8.106	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
7.705	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
7.667	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
7.214	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
6.649	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.568	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
6.215	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
5.926	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
5.914	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
5.870	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
5.853	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
5.832	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
5.830	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
5.827	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
5.818	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
5.806	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
5.748	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
5.745	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
5.697	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
5.682	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
5.548	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
5.481	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
5.323	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
5.285	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
5.238	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
5.175	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.153	How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election?	Continuous
5.123	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
5.040	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
4.908	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
4.517	Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?	Binary
4.499	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
4.480	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
4.220	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour)	Continuous
3.909	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
3.839	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
3.799	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
3.692	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
3.447	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.101	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
2.937	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
2.128	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
2.050	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
1.828	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
1.665	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
1.664	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
1.664	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
1.519	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
1.517	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
1.515	What will the annual return rate (in USD) of the S&P MERVAL be during 2023?	Continuous
1.433	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
1.267	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
1.235	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
1.178	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
1.122	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.092	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
0.907	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Miami Marlins)	Binary
0.787	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Milwaukee Brewers)	Binary
0.749	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
0.726	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
0.679	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Toronto Blue Jays)	Binary
0.529	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Tampa Bay Rays)	Binary
0.469	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12)	Continuous
0.022	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
-0.504	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
-1.140	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-1.208	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
-1.486	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-2.477	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.745	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-6.493	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
-7.240	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-7.473	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-7.539	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
-9.441	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-10.158	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-11.207	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-12.916	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-12.956	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-18.700	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-18.727	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-21.992	What percentage of the popular vote will presidential candidate Tharman Shanmugaratnam receive in the 2023 Singaporean presidential election?	Continuous
-22.488	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-26.512	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-32.051	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-38.254	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-43.349	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-49.484	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-50.531	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
-53.077	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-56.338	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Full Extension (Five or More Years))	Binary
-64.745	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-81.272	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-83.326	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-88.651	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-91.876	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-93.331	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-203.240	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary

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