LD

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2.312k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
58.192	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
54.627	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
53.514	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
51.604	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
50.155	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
46.806	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
46.439	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
45.788	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
44.457	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
39.480	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
37.576	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
36.662	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
32.147	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
32.064	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
31.902	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
30.051	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
29.630	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
29.095	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
27.960	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
27.708	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
26.085	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
24.512	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
21.737	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
21.517	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.949	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
20.516	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
19.648	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
19.493	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
19.359	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
19.341	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
19.123	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
18.977	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
18.966	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
18.938	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
18.672	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
18.607	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
18.498	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
18.492	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
18.421	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
18.354	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
18.230	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
18.212	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
18.049	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
17.980	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
17.974	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
17.974	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
17.802	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
17.621	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
17.616	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
17.584	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
16.885	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
16.830	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
16.812	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
16.720	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
16.587	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
16.492	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
16.489	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
16.280	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
16.096	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
16.013	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
15.881	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
15.495	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
15.310	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
15.295	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
15.265	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.241	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
14.448	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
14.017	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
13.386	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
13.367	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.153	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
13.047	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
12.822	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
12.583	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
12.488	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
12.474	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
12.125	What will real GDP growth be in the United States in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
12.121	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
11.965	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
11.834	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
11.614	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
11.474	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
11.309	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
11.269	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
11.178	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
11.020	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.984	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
10.903	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
10.865	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
10.656	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
10.433	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
10.420	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
10.380	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
10.303	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
10.218	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
10.042	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
10.037	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
10.028	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
10.012	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
9.960	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
9.848	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
9.759	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.658	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
9.288	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
9.051	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
9.025	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
8.988	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
8.865	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
8.746	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
8.706	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Continuous
8.528	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
8.462	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
8.350	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Continuous
8.319	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR ≥ 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
8.159	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
8.145	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Continuous
7.963	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE < 3%)	Binary
7.909	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
7.819	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.350	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
7.221	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Continuous
7.084	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Continuous
6.923	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
6.921	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
6.754	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Continuous
6.649	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Continuous
6.549	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
6.546	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Continuous
6.510	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
6.364	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Continuous
6.322	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Continuous
6.321	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
6.321	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
6.171	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
5.943	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
5.903	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Continuous
5.826	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Continuous
5.641	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
5.295	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
5.263	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
5.232	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Continuous
5.071	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Continuous
4.999	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
4.740	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
4.721	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
4.574	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Continuous
4.553	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
4.386	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion)	Continuous
4.319	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
4.171	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
3.952	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.837	How many estimated cases of Marburg virus (MARV) will occur globally in 2022?	Continuous
3.772	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.469	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Continuous
2.984	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
2.840	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
2.774	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.717	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
2.488	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
2.271	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
0.801	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
0.076	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
0.006	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
-0.036	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-2.062	What will core PCE and the max unemployment rate be at the end of 2023? (UR < 4.5%, core PCE ≥ 3%)	Binary
-3.741	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.038	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
-5.370	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
-6.284	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-7.100	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
-7.715	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
-22.001	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-43.612	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary