SoaringMoon

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3.109k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
145.408	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
82.248	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
77.443	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
75.615	How many cyberattacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will be conducted by Russian-based hackers between March 1, 2022 and June 1, 2022?	Continuous
66.418	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
52.917	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
50.586	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
46.092	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
44.254	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
42.968	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
42.853	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
39.209	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
38.334	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
37.940	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
37.777	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
36.601	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
35.822	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
34.621	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
34.151	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
33.203	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
31.636	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
31.472	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
31.100	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
30.353	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
29.570	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
28.553	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
27.412	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
27.395	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
27.350	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
27.072	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
26.193	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
25.293	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
24.744	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
24.712	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
24.402	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
24.154	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
23.640	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
23.589	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
21.853	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
21.464	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
21.439	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
21.213	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Djibouti)	Binary
21.213	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eritrea)	Binary
21.213	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Kenya)	Binary
21.213	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Uganda)	Binary
21.213	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Burundi)	Binary
21.213	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tanzania)	Binary
21.213	East Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Rwanda)	Binary
21.213	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Angola)	Binary
21.213	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Zimbabwe)	Binary
21.213	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Democratic Republic of Congo)	Binary
21.213	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Gabon)	Binary
21.213	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Eswatini (Swaziland))	Binary
21.213	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Equatorial Guinea)	Binary
21.213	Central Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lesotho)	Binary
21.212	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Côte d'Ivoire)	Binary
21.212	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea)	Binary
21.212	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Sierra Leone)	Binary
21.212	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Togo)	Binary
21.212	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Morocco)	Binary
21.212	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Benin)	Binary
21.212	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Mauritania)	Binary
21.212	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Liberia)	Binary
21.212	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Senegal)	Binary
21.212	West Africa Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guinea-Bissau)	Binary
21.088	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
20.497	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
20.466	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
20.369	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
20.345	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (India)	Binary
20.345	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Pakistan)	Binary
20.345	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bangladesh)	Binary
20.345	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Tajikistan)	Binary
20.345	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nepal)	Binary
20.345	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Papua New Guinea)	Binary
20.345	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Korea DPR)	Binary
20.345	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Lao PDR)	Binary
20.345	Asia Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Cambodia)	Binary
20.235	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
19.959	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
19.490	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Bolivia)	Binary
19.490	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Nicaragua)	Binary
19.490	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Guatemala)	Binary
19.490	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (El Salvador)	Binary
19.490	Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022? (Honduras)	Binary
19.365	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
19.310	On how many days in 2022 will U.S. hospital admissions (for COVID) exceed the pre-2022 peak?	Continuous
18.856	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
18.614	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
18.509	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
18.507	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
18.096	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
17.926	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
17.926	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
17.623	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
17.277	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
16.956	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
16.494	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
15.824	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
15.477	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
15.428	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
15.417	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
14.864	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
14.067	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
13.989	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
13.947	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
13.662	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,500 before July 1, 2022?	Binary
13.553	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
13.515	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
12.988	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
12.361	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
12.310	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
12.041	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
11.872	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
11.853	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
11.806	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
11.726	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before May 20, 2022?	Binary
11.447	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
11.419	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
11.327	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
10.789	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
10.445	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
10.415	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
10.367	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
10.003	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
9.919	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
9.813	In the next round of FITARA (Federal Information Technology Acquisition Reform Act) scoring, will the median cyber grade for the covered federal departments and agencies come out as a “B-” or higher?	Binary
9.720	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
9.341	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
8.980	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
8.913	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
8.595	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
8.522	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
8.133	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
8.067	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
7.663	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
7.605	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
7.555	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
7.344	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
7.207	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
7.119	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
6.753	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
6.753	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
6.681	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
6.681	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
6.279	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
6.279	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
6.220	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
6.066	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
5.742	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
5.729	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
5.729	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
5.729	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
5.729	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
5.405	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
5.351	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
5.351	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
5.351	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
4.568	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
4.454	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
4.376	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
4.169	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
3.390	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
2.950	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
2.724	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
2.671	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
2.437	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
2.249	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
1.836	What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary?	Continuous
0.782	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
0.621	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
0.482	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
0.209	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-	Will Jaedon Whyte qualify for the USA IMO team before 2023?	Binary
-	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
-	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
-	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
-	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
-	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
-	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
-	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
-	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
-	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
-	Will the US make any new commitment of over $1M for the prevention of biological weapons deployment at the 2022 BWC Review Conference?	Binary
-0.626	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
-0.795	What percent of global organizations will experience a successful email-based phishing attack in 2022?	Continuous
-1.709	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
-2.314	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
-4.654	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
-5.024	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
-6.371	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
-7.260	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-12.358	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
-13.567	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
-18.302	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
-26.447	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
-26.558	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-28.930	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-42.717	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
-62.275	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-72.818	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-151.039	How many ransomware attacks against U.S. educational institutions will be reported in 2022?	Continuous