skmmcj

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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17.24k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
183.325	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
173.199	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
171.258	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
168.760	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
157.589	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
154.733	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
135.201	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
133.177	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
121.352	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
117.936	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
117.706	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
116.060	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
113.109	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
111.111	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
110.465	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
105.418	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
102.961	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
102.774	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
101.279	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
100.977	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 14)	Continuous
99.339	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
98.891	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
98.787	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
98.466	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
98.001	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
97.976	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
96.634	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
96.608	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
96.460	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
95.883	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
95.800	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
95.744	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
95.006	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.827	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
94.697	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.663	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
94.489	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
94.413	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
94.392	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
94.077	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
93.796	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
93.789	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
93.101	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
93.073	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
92.916	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
92.592	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
92.235	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
91.906	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
91.667	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
91.574	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
91.560	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
90.728	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
90.689	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
90.313	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
90.217	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
90.203	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
89.800	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
89.513	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (2)	Binary
89.475	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
89.252	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
89.134	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
88.772	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
88.523	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
88.335	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
87.121	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
86.873	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
86.841	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
86.658	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
85.847	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
85.834	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
85.357	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
85.133	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
85.078	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
85.063	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
85.044	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
84.662	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
84.613	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (3)	Binary
84.349	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
84.299	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
84.226	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
83.387	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
83.283	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
83.228	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
83.097	Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Binary
83.053	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
82.568	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
81.235	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
80.362	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
79.820	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
79.182	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
78.894	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
77.857	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
77.839	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
77.497	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
77.034	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
76.659	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
76.319	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
76.317	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
76.085	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
75.596	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
75.350	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
74.915	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
74.658	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
74.539	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
74.255	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
74.247	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
74.229	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
74.229	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
74.229	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
74.229	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
74.229	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
74.228	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
74.228	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
74.228	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
74.214	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
74.118	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
74.117	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
73.984	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
73.949	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
73.916	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
73.418	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
73.229	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
73.136	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
72.968	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
72.744	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
72.712	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
72.359	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
72.190	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
71.973	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
71.670	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
69.858	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
69.552	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
69.264	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
69.246	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
69.224	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
68.349	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
67.841	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
66.694	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
66.446	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jan-2024)	Continuous
66.307	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (4)	Binary
65.588	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
64.925	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
63.646	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 7)	Continuous
63.185	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
63.121	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
61.980	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
60.712	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
58.915	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
58.638	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
58.244	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
58.155	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
57.983	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
57.983	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
57.983	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
57.874	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5)	Binary
57.826	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
57.295	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
56.369	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
56.070	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
55.822	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
55.506	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
55.294	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
54.719	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
54.637	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
54.558	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
54.275	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
54.205	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
53.934	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
53.707	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
53.190	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
53.057	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
53.022	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
52.868	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
52.627	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
51.990	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
51.609	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
51.420	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
50.724	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (6)	Binary
50.630	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
50.404	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
50.404	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
50.404	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
50.404	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
50.404	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
50.338	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
50.318	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
50.299	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
50.268	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
49.293	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
49.197	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
49.175	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
49.076	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
49.065	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
48.953	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
48.876	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
47.574	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
47.200	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
46.959	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
46.902	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
46.645	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
46.395	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
45.913	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
45.866	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
45.815	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
44.971	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
44.773	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
44.690	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
44.652	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
44.576	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
44.545	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
44.541	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
43.792	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
43.131	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
43.126	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
42.846	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
42.277	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12)	Continuous
41.563	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
41.504	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
41.330	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
40.661	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
40.368	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
40.252	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
40.005	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
39.435	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
38.882	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
38.870	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
38.535	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
38.077	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
37.784	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
37.512	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
37.245	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
36.529	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
36.259	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
36.107	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
36.047	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
35.964	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
35.766	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
35.669	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
34.873	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
34.821	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
34.773	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
34.319	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
34.120	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
33.544	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
33.443	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
33.064	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
32.922	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
31.903	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
31.704	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
31.046	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
30.839	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
30.418	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
29.977	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
29.792	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
29.306	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
29.230	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
29.173	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
28.594	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
28.591	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
28.151	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
28.104	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
27.102	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
25.898	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
25.878	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
25.756	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
25.491	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
25.463	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
25.401	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
25.189	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
24.799	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
24.755	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
24.403	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
24.122	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
23.781	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
23.685	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
23.216	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
22.618	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
22.564	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
22.482	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
19.976	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
19.422	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Dec-2023)	Continuous
18.629	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
17.295	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
17.277	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
17.251	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
17.086	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
16.800	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
16.446	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.444	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
15.506	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
15.333	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
15.023	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
14.231	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
13.913	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
13.828	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
13.728	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
13.460	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
13.284	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
13.266	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
12.631	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
12.439	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
12.008	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
11.506	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
11.428	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
11.155	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
11.113	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
10.657	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
9.396	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
8.763	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
7.747	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
7.459	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
7.162	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
4.787	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
4.781	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
3.760	In which epidemiological week will the overall national RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 first equal or exceed 1.0?	Continuous
3.461	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
3.355	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
2.999	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
2.964	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
2.704	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
1.848	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
1.715	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
0.680	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.447	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.087	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-0.454	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-0.542	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
-5.051	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-5.117	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
-5.308	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-7.732	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-12.243	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
-12.678	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
-13.664	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
-18.421	How many claims from Study 4 of the JPSP paper, "Collective transcendence beliefs shape the sacredness of objects: The case of art" will replicate?	Continuous
-19.937	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-21.431	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
-24.012	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-28.730	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-30.145	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-30.228	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-31.623	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
-35.816	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (February 2023)	Continuous
-35.916	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-37.472	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-38.832	Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season?	Continuous
-41.274	Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?	Binary
-41.720	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-42.024	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-42.392	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
-43.788	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
-53.994	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-59.567	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-67.757	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-68.699	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
-69.557	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
-75.123	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
-81.213	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-99.961	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
-110.041	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (7)	Binary
-114.537	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-150.701	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-186.392	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary

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