skmmcj

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.962k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.545	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
88.504	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
88.320	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
80.874	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
80.646	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
77.912	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
77.522	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
77.382	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
75.157	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
74.658	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
74.475	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
74.222	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
74.102	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
73.426	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
71.973	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
71.598	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
71.402	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
70.407	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
70.142	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
70.008	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
69.843	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
68.916	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
67.832	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
67.754	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
67.370	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
65.301	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
64.954	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
64.614	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
62.700	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
62.474	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
61.922	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
60.936	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
60.875	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
59.082	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
58.700	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
58.436	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
57.576	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
57.446	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
56.348	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
53.767	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
51.128	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
50.363	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
49.972	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2023)	Continuous
48.453	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
48.215	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
48.155	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
48.005	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
47.778	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
45.402	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
44.901	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
44.364	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
43.857	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
43.079	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
42.621	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
42.551	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
42.280	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
42.090	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
41.504	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
40.714	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
40.603	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
40.273	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
39.910	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
39.766	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
39.699	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
39.414	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
38.639	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
38.285	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
36.982	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
36.657	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
34.576	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
34.556	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
34.136	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
34.073	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
34.035	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
32.602	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Oct-23)	Continuous
32.379	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
32.082	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
31.607	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
29.993	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
29.959	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
29.785	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
29.637	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
29.556	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
29.386	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
27.995	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
27.916	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-23)	Continuous
27.893	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
27.821	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
26.826	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
26.491	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
26.257	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
25.117	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
24.995	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
24.854	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
23.910	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Nov-23)	Continuous
23.361	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
23.131	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
21.866	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23)	Continuous
21.335	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
21.166	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
20.456	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
17.525	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
17.363	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
17.167	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
16.891	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
16.838	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.279	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-23)	Continuous
15.643	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
15.082	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
14.651	What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2023)	Continuous
14.608	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
14.447	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
12.964	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
11.853	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
10.251	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
10.125	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
9.664	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
9.585	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
9.097	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
8.313	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
8.313	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
8.312	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
8.311	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
8.295	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
8.295	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
8.294	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
8.294	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
8.294	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
8.293	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
8.282	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
8.245	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
7.817	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.732	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
5.594	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.826	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
3.899	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
3.801	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.620	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
3.092	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
2.878	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
2.539	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
2.167	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
1.444	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.720	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
0.710	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.176	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-1.163	Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public)	Binary
-1.804	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q2)	Continuous
-4.207	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-6.135	What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be?	Continuous
-6.280	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-10.971	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-19.379	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-23.532	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q4)	Continuous
-54.352	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-99.903	What will real GDP growth (using the seasonally adjusted annual rate) be in the United States in the following quarters? (2023 Q3)	Continuous
-144.638	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary