| 210.986 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 204.474 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 147.362 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 146.170 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 144.298 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 136.774 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 130.794 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 122.318 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 119.462 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida) | Continuous |
| 118.050 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts) | Continuous |
| 116.678 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 114.418 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 112.868 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 112.764 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California) | Continuous |
| 112.391 | Respiratory "Tripledemic" (4 Weeks) 2023-24? (Yes) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 112.115 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas) | Continuous |
| 111.819 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 111.727 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York) | Continuous |
| 111.462 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington) | Continuous |
| 111.339 | COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024? (No) → Peak Respiratory Magnitudes 2023-2024? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 110.279 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 109.977 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 107.549 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 107.124 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 106.169 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 105.978 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 105.585 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 105.268 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 104.219 | What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 103.082 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 101.857 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 100.222 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 99.462 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 99.269 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 99.068 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 99.023 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 99.004 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 98.786 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 98.726 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (6) | Binary |
| 98.701 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.596 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.409 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 98.160 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.756 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (5) | Binary |
| 97.657 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 97.500 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.120 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.108 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.053 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 96.800 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 96.549 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 96.417 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 96.367 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (4) | Binary |
| 96.360 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 96.343 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.232 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 95.969 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 95.725 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 95.607 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 95.426 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 95.328 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 95.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 95.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 95.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 95.250 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 95.230 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 95.220 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 95.198 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 95.195 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 95.188 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.184 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 95.179 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 95.167 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 95.166 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.162 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 95.160 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 95.149 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 95.112 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 95.076 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 95.020 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 94.983 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 94.979 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 94.913 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 94.911 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 94.891 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 94.861 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 94.820 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 94.762 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 94.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 94.663 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 94.648 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 94.618 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 94.399 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 94.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 94.279 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 94.256 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 94.094 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 94.078 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 94.052 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 94.043 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.040 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 93.898 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 93.879 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.817 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 93.679 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 93.435 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.432 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 93.386 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 92.868 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.683 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 92.417 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 92.360 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 92.212 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (3) | Binary |
| 92.084 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 91.481 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 91.406 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 91.332 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 91.147 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 90.863 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 90.681 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 90.447 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 90.241 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 90.115 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 89.757 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.695 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.612 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 89.365 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 88.156 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 87.834 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 87.151 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.065 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024) | Continuous |
| 86.685 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024) | Continuous |
| 85.617 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 85.472 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 85.439 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.291 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.171 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 85.157 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 84.785 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 84.405 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 84.343 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 83.995 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.028 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 83.015 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 82.522 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (2) | Binary |
| 82.426 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 82.163 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 81.546 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 81.174 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.869 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 80.767 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 80.143 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 79.522 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 79.359 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 79.350 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 78.021 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 77.260 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024) | Continuous |
| 76.963 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 76.751 | Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 76.647 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 76.181 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 76.147 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 75.689 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 75.534 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 75.003 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 74.820 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 74.718 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 74.475 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 73.607 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 73.250 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 73.078 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 72.948 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 72.884 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 72.710 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 72.650 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 72.436 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 72.436 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 72.436 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 72.379 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 72.311 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 72.125 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 72.075 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 72.062 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 71.668 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 71.643 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 71.603 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024) | Continuous |
| 71.531 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 70.517 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 70.284 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 69.366 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 68.776 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 68.512 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 68.077 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 67.775 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.310 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 66.128 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 65.006 | How many of the AI developers who published safety policies in advance of the UK AI Summit will express an intent to abide by the G7 Code of Conduct before 2025? (1) | Binary |
| 64.905 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 64.693 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 64.341 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 63.533 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 63.063 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 63.025 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 62.283 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 60.571 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 60.495 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 59.686 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.659 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.578 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.241 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.056 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 57.572 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 56.226 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 56.039 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 55.820 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 55.526 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 54.986 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 54.225 | What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 54.143 | How much oil will Russia produce (in barrels per day) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 54.037 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 52.640 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 52.496 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 52.312 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 51.624 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.551 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 48.227 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 47.898 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 47.834 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 47.736 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 47.078 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 46.876 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 46.840 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 46.826 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 46.818 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 46.816 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 46.810 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 46.801 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 46.652 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 46.456 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.439 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 45.984 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 45.819 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 45.091 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 44.283 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 43.950 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 43.926 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 43.722 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 43.709 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 43.305 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 42.689 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 42.551 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 41.891 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| 40.808 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 40.123 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 39.878 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.606 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.531 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 39.263 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 39.166 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 38.725 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 38.367 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 37.748 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 37.544 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 35.798 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 34.734 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 34.675 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 33.698 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 33.542 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 33.328 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 33.316 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 32.695 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 32.432 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 32.352 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 32.335 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024) | Continuous |
| 31.996 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| 31.711 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 31.523 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 31.475 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 31.070 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 30.775 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 30.536 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 29.872 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.426 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 29.412 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 29.040 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
| 28.248 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 28.120 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.751 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 27.726 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 27.517 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 27.346 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 27.117 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 26.927 | What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 26.852 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 26.758 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 26.675 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 25.654 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 25.600 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 25.393 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 24.583 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 24.166 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 23.415 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 22.853 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 22.519 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 22.251 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 21.450 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 21.219 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 21.022 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 20.472 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 19.831 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 19.724 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 19.618 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.432 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 19.422 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 17.375 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 17.056 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 16.954 | What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election? | Continuous |
| 16.688 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 15.576 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 15.219 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 15.122 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 13.648 | What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| 12.895 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 12.746 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 12.301 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.830 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 11.717 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 10.657 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.486 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.272 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union) | Binary |
| 8.454 | What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 8.387 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri) | Continuous |
| 7.434 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 7.318 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 6.989 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 6.976 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 6.597 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 6.557 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 6.386 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 6.333 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 5.958 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.934 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 5.898 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 5.674 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 5.193 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 5.193 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.193 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.193 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 5.193 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 4.285 | When will Google Bard be generally available in the European Union? | Continuous |
| 4.227 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 4.197 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 4.130 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| 2.446 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.430 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.282 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.233 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.942 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.861 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.735 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.673 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 0.580 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.457 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.431 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 0.294 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.238 | When will Oleksii Reznikov cease to hold the office of the Minister of Defence of Ukraine? | Continuous |
| -0.314 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -1.524 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -3.488 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| -3.514 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -3.930 | When will the RSV monoclonal antibody nirsevimab (Beyfortus) no longer be in shortage in the US? | Continuous |
| -4.062 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| -5.376 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| -6.485 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -7.243 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| -9.125 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| -15.889 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -17.019 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -17.310 | Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| -17.495 | What MMLU benchmark score will Google DeepMind's Gemini model have on release? | Continuous |
| -18.993 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -22.769 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -23.131 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -25.651 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -26.533 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -32.103 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -40.438 | How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo? | Continuous |
| -46.518 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| -47.807 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -54.072 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -59.034 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -82.270 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| -83.349 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -90.732 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -94.945 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -112.596 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -133.094 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -170.439 | What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -185.210 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -396.991 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |