vakrasiak

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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16.17k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
156.057	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
155.544	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
146.574	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
126.388	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
106.249	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
103.465	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
102.111	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
99.813	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
98.954	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
98.954	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
98.954	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
98.954	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
98.954	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
98.954	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
98.954	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
98.349	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
98.093	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
97.542	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
96.198	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
95.346	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
95.346	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
95.227	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
95.145	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
94.880	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
94.788	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
94.788	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
94.788	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
94.788	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
94.702	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
94.280	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
94.280	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
94.106	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
93.895	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
93.255	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
93.108	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
92.901	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
92.757	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
92.365	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
91.150	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
90.941	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
90.940	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
90.635	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
90.255	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
90.024	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
89.956	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
89.588	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
89.584	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
89.456	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
89.341	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
89.312	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
89.135	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
88.716	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
88.401	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
87.154	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
86.548	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
86.401	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
86.238	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
85.758	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
85.746	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
85.584	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
85.483	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
85.087	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
84.999	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
84.718	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
84.687	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
84.607	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
84.134	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
83.830	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
83.643	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
83.224	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
83.224	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
83.224	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
83.224	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
83.224	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
81.565	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
80.987	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
80.952	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
80.444	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
80.127	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
79.905	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
79.663	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
79.306	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
79.160	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
78.893	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
78.317	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
77.738	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
77.422	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
77.145	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
77.030	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
76.546	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
76.514	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
76.107	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
75.391	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
74.488	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2023 Dec 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
74.462	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
74.380	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
74.228	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
73.859	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
73.447	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
72.960	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
72.653	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
72.447	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
69.792	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
69.519	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
69.076	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
67.670	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
67.179	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
66.591	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
66.539	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
66.539	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
66.487	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
66.226	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
66.184	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
66.184	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
66.184	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
66.184	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
66.184	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
66.184	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
66.183	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
66.183	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
66.183	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
66.183	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
66.183	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
66.183	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
66.183	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
66.126	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
65.616	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
65.115	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
65.026	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
64.407	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
64.169	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
63.926	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
63.787	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
63.719	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
63.688	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
62.543	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
62.540	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
62.443	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
62.434	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
62.307	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
61.444	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
61.270	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
61.086	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
61.031	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
60.936	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Te Pāti Māori)	Continuous
60.760	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
60.738	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
60.307	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
60.098	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
59.716	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
59.453	How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024?	Continuous
59.280	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
59.012	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
58.865	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
58.244	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
58.137	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
57.909	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
57.648	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
56.958	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
56.868	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
56.081	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
56.063	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
55.588	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
55.110	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
54.979	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
54.978	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
54.782	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
54.493	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
54.488	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
54.473	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
54.407	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
54.337	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
53.699	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
53.342	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
53.117	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
52.902	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
52.727	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
52.071	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
51.601	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
51.592	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
51.233	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
51.145	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
51.080	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024)	Binary
50.936	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
50.678	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
50.646	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
50.328	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
50.328	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
50.328	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
50.195	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
50.189	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
50.017	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
49.916	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
49.463	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
49.396	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
48.778	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
48.438	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
48.397	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
48.092	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
47.811	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
47.778	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
47.730	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
47.710	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
47.353	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
46.756	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
46.649	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
46.330	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
46.330	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
46.327	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
46.205	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
46.176	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
45.993	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
45.928	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
45.879	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
45.824	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
44.766	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
44.766	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
44.766	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
44.623	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
44.550	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
44.524	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
44.269	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Green)	Continuous
44.057	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
44.056	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
43.954	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
43.891	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
43.847	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
43.821	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
43.797	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
43.570	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
43.530	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
43.157	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
43.107	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
42.957	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
42.708	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
42.578	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
42.513	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
42.483	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
41.838	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
41.698	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
41.312	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
40.634	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
40.467	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
39.979	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
39.926	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
39.429	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
39.392	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
39.205	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
39.171	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
38.997	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
38.835	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
38.211	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (National)	Continuous
38.190	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
38.038	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
37.908	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
37.854	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
37.851	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
37.141	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
37.126	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
37.050	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
37.038	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
36.674	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
36.629	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (ACT)	Continuous
36.066	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
35.987	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
35.957	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
35.812	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
35.806	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
35.737	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
35.701	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
35.562	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
35.546	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
34.497	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
32.924	Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?	Binary
32.724	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
32.620	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
32.446	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
32.446	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
32.400	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
32.398	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
31.924	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
31.645	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
31.551	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
31.147	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
31.124	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
30.918	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
30.444	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
30.007	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
29.982	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
29.567	How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election?	Continuous
28.966	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
28.727	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
28.452	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
28.327	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
27.953	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
27.917	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
27.877	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.509	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
27.290	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
26.216	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
25.470	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
25.199	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
25.085	What will the annual return rate (in USD) of the S&P MERVAL be during 2023?	Continuous
24.976	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
24.927	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
24.825	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
24.763	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
24.634	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
24.556	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
24.183	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
24.172	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
23.783	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
22.984	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
22.776	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
22.320	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
22.155	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2024)	Continuous
21.612	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
21.581	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
21.102	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
20.652	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
20.507	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)	Binary
19.549	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
19.401	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Cleveland Cavaliers)	Binary
19.343	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
19.263	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
19.251	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Minnesota Wild)	Binary
18.612	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
17.877	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
17.659	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
17.311	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
17.246	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche)	Binary
17.027	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
15.509	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
15.351	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
15.204	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
15.118	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary
15.071	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Milwaukee Bucks)	Binary
15.032	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.769	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
14.289	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
13.680	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
13.629	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
13.276	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
13.008	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
12.942	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
12.855	Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?	Binary
12.177	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
11.591	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
11.441	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
10.911	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
10.407	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
9.537	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
8.432	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
8.415	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
7.603	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
7.404	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
6.980	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
6.801	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.928	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
5.532	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
5.392	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
4.454	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
4.282	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.015	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
3.596	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
3.453	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
3.307	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
3.065	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
2.980	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.508	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
2.210	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
2.181	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
-	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
-	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
-	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-0.143	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
-0.482	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
-1.078	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-1.243	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
-1.412	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
-2.046	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-2.649	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
-4.065	Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?	Binary
-4.334	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-4.868	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-4.883	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-6.032	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
-7.100	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
-7.193	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
-7.691	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-7.798	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)	Binary
-7.855	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
-9.164	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
-11.234	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-12.646	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
-13.611	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
-14.698	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-14.956	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
-15.073	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
-15.120	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
-15.200	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
-15.716	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-16.074	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-17.373	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
-17.557	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
-17.954	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-20.627	When will The One Ring be found?	Continuous
-21.144	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-22.616	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
-25.058	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
-26.792	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-27.243	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
-27.577	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
-30.320	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
-30.372	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
-30.952	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
-31.053	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
-31.393	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-32.192	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
-37.334	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-44.480	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-48.076	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
-58.194	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
-58.869	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-63.782	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
-64.980	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-72.050	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
-73.325	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
-73.573	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-81.550	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-95.423	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-95.695	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
-96.831	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-99.875	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-105.296	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (February 2023)	Continuous
-107.690	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-107.763	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-144.621	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
-152.797	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (April 8)	Continuous
-154.928	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-182.339	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
-186.416	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
-267.798	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-539.933	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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