vakrasiak

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.641k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
110.075	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
108.916	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
94.835	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
86.242	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
81.594	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
80.611	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
80.153	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
79.428	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
79.420	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
77.835	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
76.811	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
76.710	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
76.281	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
75.393	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
74.130	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
73.934	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
72.768	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
72.275	How many surveillance cameras per 1000 people will the most surveilled city in China have in 2023?	Continuous
70.374	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
70.098	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
68.496	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
68.225	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
68.167	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
67.771	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
67.729	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
66.994	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
66.975	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
66.934	Depending on the US giving Ukraine fighter aircraft, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US aircraft)	Binary
66.893	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
65.980	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
65.591	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
65.556	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
65.357	Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?	Binary
65.350	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
64.859	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
63.713	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
61.493	Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?	Binary
60.912	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
60.811	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
60.668	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
60.211	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
60.185	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
60.116	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
59.996	Depending on US/NATO conducting military operations in Ukraine, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (No US/NATO Ops in UA)	Binary
59.316	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
58.152	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
58.095	What will Meta’s yearly spending on Reality Labs be? (2023)	Continuous
57.008	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
56.604	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
55.552	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
55.000	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
53.961	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
53.531	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
52.312	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
50.438	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
49.786	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
49.267	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
49.033	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
48.930	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
48.801	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
48.723	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
48.412	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
48.363	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
47.863	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
47.637	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
47.571	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
47.412	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
47.221	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
46.685	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
46.501	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
46.457	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
46.108	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
45.995	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
45.154	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
44.848	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
43.911	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
43.446	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
41.988	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
41.784	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
40.324	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
39.688	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
39.527	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
38.382	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
38.138	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
37.607	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
37.232	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
37.139	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
36.789	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
36.516	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
35.538	Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023?	Binary
35.215	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
34.567	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
34.326	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
32.946	How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?	Continuous
32.814	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
32.530	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
31.591	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
30.871	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
30.164	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
30.071	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
29.898	Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024?	Binary
29.300	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.823	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
28.358	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
27.412	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
27.278	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
27.025	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Continuous
26.598	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
25.894	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Continuous
25.389	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Continuous
24.859	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
24.350	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
24.199	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
24.136	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Continuous
23.568	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
23.382	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
23.028	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
22.597	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
22.162	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
21.847	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Aug-23)	Continuous
21.638	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
21.444	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
21.381	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Continuous
21.134	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Continuous
21.055	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Apr-23)	Continuous
21.003	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Continuous
20.695	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
20.692	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
20.626	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
20.561	What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023?	Continuous
20.526	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
20.417	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
19.601	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Continuous
19.358	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23)	Continuous
18.549	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
17.900	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
17.885	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Binary
17.365	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jul-23)	Continuous
17.304	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Binary
16.581	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Continuous
16.432	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
15.657	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion)	Binary
15.516	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23)	Continuous
15.238	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
14.179	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Binary
13.622	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Continuous
12.606	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
12.367	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
11.569	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
11.520	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
11.446	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
11.441	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
10.864	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Mar-23)	Continuous
10.577	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Binary
9.904	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Apr-23)	Continuous
9.243	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
9.185	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Binary
8.206	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Binary
8.205	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Binary
8.205	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Binary
7.841	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
6.564	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
6.219	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
6.129	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
5.883	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
5.289	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Continuous
5.007	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Binary
4.985	How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022?	Continuous
4.864	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.406	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United)	Continuous
3.374	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa)	Continuous
3.344	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
3.294	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur)	Continuous
3.269	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham)	Continuous
3.263	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool)	Continuous
3.180	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion)	Continuous
2.948	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea)	Continuous
2.892	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City)	Continuous
2.817	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford)	Continuous
2.724	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
2.710	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal)	Binary
2.562	How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United)	Continuous
2.312	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
2.283	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace)	Binary
2.282	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers)	Binary
1.976	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest)	Binary
1.976	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City)	Binary
1.370	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
1.123	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
0.757	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
0.572	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth)	Binary
0.572	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United)	Binary
0.571	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton)	Binary
0.571	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United)	Binary
0.571	Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton)	Binary
0.095	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
-0.149	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
-1.153	What will the Rotten Tomatoes audience score of the upcoming Super Mario movie be?	Continuous
-1.781	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
-3.763	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-3.964	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-3.986	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-23)	Continuous
-4.177	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.734	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
-6.185	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-7.959	Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?	Continuous
-8.773	When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?	Continuous
-9.081	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-9.271	How many people in the world will live on $10 (2011 INT USD) or less per day in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
-10.754	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-18.336	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
-18.686	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-20.102	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-20.324	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-25.230	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
-27.994	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
-28.419	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-34.630	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
-36.752	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
-47.608	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-83.468	How many parameters will the latest version of the Chinese Wu Dao AI model have before 2024?	Continuous
-86.343	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-90.807	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-91.269	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
-97.704	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-101.571	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-106.578	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
-107.775	What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
-140.973	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary