| 132.872 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 122.035 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 115.916 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 115.539 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 106.436 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 104.030 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 99.213 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 99.072 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 98.548 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 98.548 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 98.548 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 98.525 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 98.358 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.283 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 98.283 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 98.073 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 97.885 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.855 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 97.854 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 97.664 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 97.544 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.273 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.236 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.236 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 97.236 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.236 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.040 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.015 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 96.728 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 96.644 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 96.366 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 96.185 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 95.945 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 95.455 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 95.397 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 95.350 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 95.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 95.009 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 94.852 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 94.737 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 94.664 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.516 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 94.501 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 94.359 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 94.301 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 94.087 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.835 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 93.692 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 92.882 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 92.704 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 92.598 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 92.598 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 92.510 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.361 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 92.327 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 92.235 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 92.222 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 92.102 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 92.102 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 91.976 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 91.886 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 91.773 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 91.773 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 91.681 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.287 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 91.286 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 91.257 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 91.257 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 91.126 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.646 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 90.646 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 90.618 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 90.448 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 90.166 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 90.166 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 90.166 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 90.166 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 88.892 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 88.108 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.103 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.383 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 87.381 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 87.020 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 86.716 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 86.468 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 86.403 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 86.403 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 86.403 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 86.089 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 86.024 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 85.899 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 85.566 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.784 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 84.784 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 84.784 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 84.784 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 84.763 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 84.752 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.438 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 84.438 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 84.438 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 84.007 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 83.923 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 83.853 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 83.348 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 82.493 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 81.964 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 81.921 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 81.838 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 81.626 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 81.284 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 80.921 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 80.762 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 80.685 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 79.534 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 77.969 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 77.892 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.286 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.263 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 76.611 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 76.254 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 76.233 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 76.233 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 76.233 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 76.233 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 75.788 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 75.788 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 75.754 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 75.472 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 75.472 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 75.234 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 74.678 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 74.678 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 74.269 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 74.105 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 73.684 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 73.198 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 73.198 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 73.198 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 73.198 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 73.198 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 73.041 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 72.965 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 72.526 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 72.489 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 71.823 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 71.776 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 71.762 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 71.733 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 71.314 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 71.314 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 70.129 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 69.733 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 69.733 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 69.733 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 69.088 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 68.704 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 67.806 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.769 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.769 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.702 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 67.558 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 67.518 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 67.347 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 66.934 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 66.572 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 66.309 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 66.237 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 66.174 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 65.972 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 65.590 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 65.573 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 65.467 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 65.420 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 63.558 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 63.247 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 62.270 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 61.888 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 61.423 | What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 60.334 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 60.172 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.959 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 59.854 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 59.516 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 59.212 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 58.520 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 58.336 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 57.717 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 57.551 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 56.152 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 55.756 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 55.281 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 54.812 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 54.697 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 54.007 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 52.812 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| 52.600 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 52.377 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 52.364 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 52.096 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 51.017 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 50.711 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 50.550 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 50.501 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 50.403 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 50.382 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 50.212 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.135 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 49.499 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 48.933 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 48.456 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.380 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.014 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 47.796 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 47.514 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 47.390 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.198 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 47.098 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 47.049 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.989 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 46.915 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.188 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 46.139 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 45.802 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 45.802 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 45.802 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 45.802 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 45.802 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 45.802 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 45.744 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 45.744 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 45.428 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 45.394 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 45.298 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 45.291 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
| 45.017 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 44.650 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 44.454 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 44.410 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 44.397 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 44.209 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 44.139 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 44.025 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 43.298 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 43.234 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 43.081 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 42.809 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 42.461 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 42.224 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 41.786 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 41.762 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 41.596 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 41.328 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 40.525 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.450 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 39.376 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 38.715 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 38.655 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 38.618 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 38.561 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 38.484 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 38.479 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| 38.363 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 38.117 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 37.915 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 37.681 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 37.521 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 37.454 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 37.413 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 37.185 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 37.067 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 37.041 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 36.517 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 36.065 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 35.983 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 35.853 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 35.470 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 35.353 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 34.846 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 34.484 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 34.294 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 34.029 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 33.573 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 33.474 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 32.560 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 32.371 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 32.278 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 31.975 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 31.972 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 31.963 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 31.455 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 31.253 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.237 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 31.173 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 31.083 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 30.159 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 30.022 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 29.719 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 29.261 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| 29.189 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 28.736 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 28.596 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 28.052 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 27.615 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 26.586 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 26.577 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| 26.410 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 26.067 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 25.732 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 25.627 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 25.356 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 24.830 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 24.830 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 24.116 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 24.107 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 23.468 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 22.855 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 22.855 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 22.002 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 21.709 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 20.921 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 19.914 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 19.914 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 19.914 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 19.654 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 19.638 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.547 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 19.308 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 18.711 | How many ketamine infusion clinics will there be on January 1, 2025 in the USA? | Continuous |
| 18.279 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 18.146 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 17.999 | What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 17.943 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 17.851 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 17.494 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 17.082 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 17.002 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 16.829 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 16.828 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 16.701 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 16.599 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 16.360 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.851 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 15.172 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 15.152 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 14.970 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 14.047 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 13.891 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.844 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 13.750 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 13.725 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.575 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 13.573 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 13.573 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 13.487 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 13.487 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 13.401 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.053 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.987 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.520 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 12.491 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 12.454 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 11.618 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 11.098 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 11.042 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 10.930 | When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)? | Continuous |
| 10.665 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 10.665 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 10.617 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 9.979 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 9.403 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 9.244 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 8.697 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 8.430 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 8.408 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 8.372 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 8.333 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.928 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 7.877 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance) | Continuous |
| 7.793 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 7.634 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 7.623 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| 7.302 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 7.019 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP) | Continuous |
| 6.515 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru) | Continuous |
| 6.131 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 5.941 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.813 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.662 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.644 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 5.500 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 5.274 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.204 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.204 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 5.148 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.066 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 4.926 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.889 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 4.797 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 4.621 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 4.582 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| 4.181 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 4.074 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats) | Continuous |
| 3.457 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 3.379 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 2.915 | How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021? | Continuous |
| 2.854 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 2.555 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 2.451 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| 2.387 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 2.152 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 1.862 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party) | Continuous |
| 1.805 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 1.701 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 1.701 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 1.649 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party) | Continuous |
| 1.464 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 1.432 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 1.432 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 1.252 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| 1.200 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| 1.197 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 0.855 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales) | Continuous |
| 0.827 | When will Google Bard be generally available in the European Union? | Continuous |
| 0.613 | Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House? | Binary |
| 0.598 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| 0.595 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 0.428 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| 0.351 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 0.310 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| 0.222 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 0.121 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| - | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| - | Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023? | Binary |
| - | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| - | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| - | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| - | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| - | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| -0.147 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| -0.398 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.571 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| -0.849 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -0.863 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| -1.063 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -2.017 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -2.799 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| -3.091 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -3.789 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -5.814 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| -6.390 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -6.874 | Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -7.251 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -7.877 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| -8.445 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| -9.603 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -11.873 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -12.535 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -12.678 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union) | Binary |
| -13.185 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -14.023 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| -14.261 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| -14.774 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -15.066 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -15.416 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -19.587 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -21.838 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| -23.947 | Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election? | Binary |
| -26.006 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -27.690 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -29.056 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
| -29.908 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -30.591 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| -32.280 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -33.474 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -34.059 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -35.349 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -39.630 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -40.062 | When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)? | Continuous |
| -41.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -51.371 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| -52.162 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -54.948 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| -57.852 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -59.463 | What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| -59.699 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -59.941 | Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025? | Binary |
| -64.917 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -66.933 | What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -73.585 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |
| -80.140 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -85.994 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -90.362 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -95.913 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -105.711 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| -108.962 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -125.018 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| -140.788 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -141.352 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -152.811 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -162.259 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -187.789 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -227.222 | What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -230.976 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -251.036 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -300.471 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -304.566 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -304.566 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |