geethepredictor

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.332k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
137.284	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
99.191	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
97.014	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
97.011	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
96.542	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
93.597	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
91.766	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
88.995	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (George Wajackoyah)	Binary
85.801	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
84.020	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (Raila Odinga)	Binary
83.861	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
80.374	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre)	Binary
78.679	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
77.565	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
77.391	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Jean Charest)	Binary
75.839	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
73.182	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 2,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
73.173	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 500 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
73.161	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
71.761	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (61)	Binary
71.097	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
69.660	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
68.556	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
64.792	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
62.203	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
61.752	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
61.682	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Sergio Perez)	Binary
61.377	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
59.973	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
58.728	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
58.218	Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving?	Binary
58.048	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
57.494	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
56.779	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Angels)	Binary
56.707	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
54.255	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
53.325	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
52.497	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
51.870	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
50.158	[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?	Continuous
50.152	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
49.956	What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2022)	Continuous
49.197	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
48.733	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before July 22, 2022?	Binary
45.646	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
44.976	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
44.755	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
44.226	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
44.095	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
43.426	Will the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia cross 1,000 before June 10, 2022?	Binary
43.123	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Milwaukee Brewers)	Binary
42.632	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
41.455	What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022?	Continuous
41.174	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (63)	Binary
40.756	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
40.014	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
39.473	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
39.052	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
38.873	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
38.272	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
38.212	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
37.851	Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?	Binary
37.820	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
36.771	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
36.727	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
36.619	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
36.148	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
36.122	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
35.925	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
35.692	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
35.622	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
35.603	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
35.238	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
35.166	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
35.166	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
34.890	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
34.214	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
33.879	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
33.836	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
33.769	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
33.422	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
33.139	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
32.861	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
32.685	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
32.608	Who will win the 2022 Formula One World Driver's Championship? (Carlos Sainz)	Binary
31.876	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
31.876	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
30.484	Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans’ personal information by June 30, 2022?	Binary
30.197	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
30.094	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
29.826	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
29.293	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
29.248	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
28.729	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
28.539	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
28.138	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
28.057	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
27.802	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
27.235	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
26.843	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
26.701	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
25.284	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
24.414	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
24.190	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
23.783	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
23.776	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
23.171	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
23.039	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
22.804	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
22.464	Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?	Binary
22.267	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
22.091	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
21.905	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
21.758	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
21.693	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
21.307	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
20.889	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
20.691	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
19.965	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
19.862	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Diego Padres)	Binary
19.750	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
18.556	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
18.533	How many new Pokemon will Pokemon Scarlet and Violet introduce?	Continuous
17.962	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
17.935	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
17.664	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cleveland Guardians)	Binary
17.599	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
17.299	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
17.292	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
17.281	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
17.247	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
17.138	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
16.833	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
16.651	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
16.586	What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?	Continuous
16.222	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
15.948	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
15.629	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
15.393	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
15.341	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
14.685	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
13.545	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
13.378	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
12.944	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
12.584	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
11.997	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
10.397	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (St. Louis Cardinals)	Binary
10.105	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
9.875	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
9.536	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
9.325	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Oakland Athletics)	Binary
9.324	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
9.324	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago White Sox)	Binary
9.323	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Kansas City Royals)	Binary
9.323	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Boston Red Sox)	Binary
9.323	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Detroit Tigers)	Binary
9.321	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Miami Marlins)	Binary
9.321	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Francisco Giants)	Binary
9.321	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Washington Nationals)	Binary
9.321	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago Cubs)	Binary
9.321	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cincinnati Reds)	Binary
9.320	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
9.320	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Colorado Rockies)	Binary
9.310	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
8.220	What will the estimated cybersecurity workforce gap for the United States be on October 15, 2022?	Continuous
8.205	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
8.151	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
7.754	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
7.321	Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?	Binary
6.632	Will Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen play more than 1 move (2 ply) in one or more games against each other in the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship 2022?	Binary
5.439	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (David Waihiga Mwaure)	Binary
5.071	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
5.043	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (64)	Binary
5.040	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (65)	Binary
5.039	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (66)	Binary
4.027	Who will win the 2022 Candidates Tournament in Chess? (Richárd Rapport)	Binary
3.724	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
3.317	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
3.135	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
2.954	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Seattle Mariners)	Binary
2.776	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between April 29, 2022 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
2.673	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
2.192	Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?	Binary
1.835	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
1.347	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
1.060	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
0.894	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
0.893	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.737	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
0.733	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
0.675	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
0.667	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
0.667	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.667	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
0.418	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
0.297	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (November 5)	Continuous
-	Will the Kenyan Supreme court nullify the results of the 2022 Presidential Election?	Binary
-4.410	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?	Continuous
-4.957	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
-6.978	Will Environment and Climate Change Canada register a white Christmas – snow on the ground on December 25th – for Toronto?	Binary
-8.177	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
-13.429	Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?	Binary
-16.769	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
-18.302	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-18.402	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-24.486	Will there be a bilateral ceasefire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2023?	Binary
-29.209	Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?	Binary
-31.497	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
-33.695	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
-44.213	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-46.688	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
-54.980	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
-58.094	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
-58.094	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
-69.183	[Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?	Binary
-74.834	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between April 29 and July 22, 2022?	Continuous
-77.931	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
-94.104	Will Rafael Nadal make it to the semifinals of every Grand Slam in 2022?	Binary
-104.945	[short-fuse] How many home runs will Aaron Judge score in the 2022 MLB season? (62)	Binary
-148.731	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 27, 2022?	Continuous
-412.814	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-479.186	Who will win the 2022 Kenyan Presidential election? (William Ruto)	Binary