lbiii

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7.012k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
191.162	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
154.476	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
130.131	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
125.540	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
122.700	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
98.558	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
98.147	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
97.508	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
96.512	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
96.080	Will OpenAI Inc. change its mission statement before the following years? (2024)	Binary
95.919	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.187	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
93.916	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
93.763	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
93.748	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
93.106	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
93.035	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
92.314	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
92.267	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
91.970	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
90.826	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
89.941	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
89.940	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
89.236	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
88.872	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
88.180	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
87.873	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
86.919	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
86.904	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
85.436	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
84.328	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
83.530	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
83.037	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
80.634	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
80.501	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
80.023	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
78.707	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
78.364	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
78.145	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
75.826	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
73.828	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
72.404	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
71.312	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
70.055	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
69.851	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
69.591	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
69.250	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
68.131	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
68.046	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
65.400	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
65.228	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
65.189	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
62.127	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
61.359	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
60.640	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
60.348	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
60.108	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
59.358	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
58.620	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
57.506	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
56.314	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
55.717	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
55.054	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
54.985	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
54.678	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
54.657	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
53.188	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
52.794	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
51.258	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
50.967	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
50.356	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
50.325	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
49.732	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
49.183	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
48.727	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
45.288	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
45.231	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
44.778	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
44.625	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
43.579	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
40.647	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
39.554	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
39.318	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
38.863	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
38.630	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
38.255	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
36.863	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
36.271	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
33.015	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
32.650	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
32.640	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
31.337	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
31.337	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
31.197	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
28.821	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
28.765	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
28.411	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
28.047	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
26.277	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
25.553	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
25.273	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
24.801	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
24.452	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
24.237	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
24.220	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
23.875	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
23.713	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
23.535	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
23.246	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
22.510	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
22.310	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
20.941	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
20.900	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
19.651	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
19.568	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
19.311	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
18.601	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.240	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
17.868	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
17.823	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
17.506	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
17.205	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
17.205	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
17.205	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
17.200	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
16.641	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
15.621	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
14.474	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
14.299	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.863	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.575	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (February 2023)	Continuous
13.361	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
13.318	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
12.958	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
12.360	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
12.359	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
12.359	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
12.359	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
12.359	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
12.239	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
11.643	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
10.446	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
10.446	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
10.384	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
10.294	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
10.294	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
10.291	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
9.924	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
9.793	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.248	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
6.867	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
5.388	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.055	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
4.961	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
4.936	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
4.936	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
4.839	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
4.285	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
3.890	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
3.432	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
2.363	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
1.895	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
1.859	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
1.395	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
1.206	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
0.680	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
0.552	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
0.385	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
0.289	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
0.222	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.121	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
-0.058	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.185	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.327	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
-3.536	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-4.675	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
-5.066	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
-6.097	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
-16.297	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-19.651	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
-22.097	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-33.235	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
-33.665	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-34.653	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-34.763	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-38.447	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-44.870	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-47.705	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-66.014	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-88.202	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-92.340	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-98.529	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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