followthesilence

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.51k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
108.558	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
92.660	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
83.842	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
81.938	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
81.679	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
76.980	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
72.602	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
71.841	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
71.058	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
69.504	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
69.151	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
66.779	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
66.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
66.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
66.587	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
66.509	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
66.298	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
65.718	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
65.718	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
65.718	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
65.717	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
65.717	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
65.717	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
65.717	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
65.717	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
65.717	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
65.717	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
65.717	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
65.716	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
65.229	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
64.248	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
63.030	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
62.478	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
60.730	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
60.365	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
59.497	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
58.829	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
58.605	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
57.775	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
57.152	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
55.248	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
54.783	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
53.931	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
52.817	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
52.265	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
51.945	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
50.773	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
50.213	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
49.968	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
49.968	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
49.968	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
49.968	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
49.968	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
49.968	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
49.968	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
49.248	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
47.941	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
47.456	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
46.950	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
46.152	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
45.394	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
45.346	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
44.909	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
44.818	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
44.803	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
44.283	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
44.110	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
43.625	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
42.960	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
42.333	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
42.288	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
41.860	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
41.610	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
39.437	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
37.824	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
37.644	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
37.197	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
35.472	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
34.577	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
33.632	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
33.118	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
32.400	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
31.612	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
31.382	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
30.897	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
30.298	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
28.303	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
28.303	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
28.234	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
26.798	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
25.836	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
25.018	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
24.677	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
23.241	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
23.044	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
23.044	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
22.279	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
22.128	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
21.418	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
21.058	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
19.756	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.366	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 25)	Continuous
18.186	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
17.712	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
16.306	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
16.265	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
16.016	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
15.896	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
14.613	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
13.637	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
12.675	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
12.621	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
11.052	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
10.952	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
10.911	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
10.690	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
10.472	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
9.480	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.206	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
9.162	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
8.568	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
8.162	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
7.952	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
7.379	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
7.257	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
6.150	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
5.617	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
5.392	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
5.305	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
5.077	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
5.001	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.905	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
4.562	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
3.785	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (March 11)	Continuous
3.137	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
2.960	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
2.539	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
2.539	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
2.539	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
2.539	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
2.539	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
1.852	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
1.625	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
0.949	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
0.710	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
0.494	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
0.302	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
-1.659	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
-2.329	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-4.968	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-5.801	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-6.257	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
-6.264	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-11.488	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-12.512	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-16.822	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
-18.528	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
-23.877	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
-24.552	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-28.933	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
-29.378	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
-33.064	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-33.393	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-35.481	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-39.530	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-39.824	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
-41.621	What will the annual return rate (in USD) of the S&P MERVAL be during 2023?	Continuous
-43.990	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
-46.615	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-67.867	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-85.739	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-133.165	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-182.384	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary

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followthesilence