anice

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

2.544k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.049	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
98.024	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
94.432	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
87.214	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
64.618	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov)	Binary
58.081	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Jim Banks)	Binary
56.935	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Drew Ferguson)	Binary
56.799	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Ian Nepomniachtchi)	Binary
55.087	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Vladimir Fedoseev)	Binary
55.087	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Matthias Blübaum)	Binary
53.262	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hjörvar Steinn Grétarsson)	Binary
44.371	Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL football game on Thanksgiving?	Binary
42.621	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
39.256	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Wesley So)	Binary
36.378	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Saudi Riyal SAR)	Binary
36.028	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
35.461	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
34.125	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Iranian Rial IRR)	Binary
32.915	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
32.372	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Mexican Peso $)	Binary
31.882	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
30.596	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (European Union Euro €)	Binary
30.592	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Chinese Yuan Renminbi ¥)	Binary
30.192	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Croatia)	Binary
30.187	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
29.768	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
29.410	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
29.200	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
29.117	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
28.737	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
28.731	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indonesian Rupiah Rp)	Binary
28.672	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
28.574	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (England)	Binary
28.514	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
28.474	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
28.448	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
28.270	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Senegal)	Binary
28.227	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Magnus Carlsen)	Binary
28.210	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Poland)	Binary
27.934	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
27.812	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
27.638	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (France)	Binary
27.358	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Cameroon)	Binary
27.358	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Serbia)	Binary
27.347	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
27.313	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (United States of America)	Binary
27.285	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ghana)	Binary
26.884	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
26.470	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay)	Binary
26.335	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Saudi Arabia)	Binary
26.334	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
26.334	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Tunisia)	Binary
26.090	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
26.044	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
25.958	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Ecuador)	Binary
25.958	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Iran)	Binary
25.957	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Wales)	Binary
25.944	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Mexico)	Binary
25.673	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
25.517	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
25.470	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Thai Baht ฿)	Binary
25.406	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Nigerian Naira ₦)	Binary
25.026	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
24.981	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
24.369	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Belgium)	Binary
24.109	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Polish złoty ł)	Binary
24.108	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Brazillian Real R$)	Binary
23.998	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Qatar)	Binary
23.883	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
23.470	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
22.704	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
22.634	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Indian Rupee ₹)	Binary
22.385	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
22.385	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
22.374	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
21.192	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Bangladeshi Taka ৳)	Binary
20.823	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
20.720	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
20.646	When will Paxlovid be given FDA authorization or approval for patients who are not high-risk?	Continuous
19.903	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
19.445	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
18.854	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
18.597	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
18.202	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
17.713	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
17.596	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
17.320	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
16.701	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
16.445	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
16.252	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
16.208	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
16.098	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
15.794	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
15.488	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
15.025	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
14.990	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
14.536	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
14.154	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
13.396	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
13.172	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Diego Padres)	Binary
13.126	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
12.046	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Yankees)	Binary
11.986	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
11.532	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cleveland Guardians)	Binary
10.497	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
10.041	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
9.934	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Seattle Mariners)	Binary
9.576	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
9.423	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
9.228	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
8.908	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
8.624	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
8.482	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
8.394	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Atlanta Braves)	Binary
6.846	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
5.908	Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?	Binary
5.726	Will Seattle's Approval Voting ballot initiative (Initiative 134) pass?	Binary
5.680	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (St. Louis Cardinals)	Binary
5.641	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (New York Mets)	Binary
5.614	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Tampa Bay Rays)	Binary
5.573	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
5.527	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Toronto Blue Jays)	Binary
4.522	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
4.280	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
4.171	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
3.975	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Dodgers)	Binary
3.268	What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?	Continuous
3.206	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
3.150	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Pakistani Rupee ₨)	Binary
3.005	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
3.005	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Oakland Athletics)	Binary
3.003	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Miami Marlins)	Binary
3.003	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Pittsburgh Pirates)	Binary
3.003	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago Cubs)	Binary
3.003	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
3.003	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Cincinnati Reds)	Binary
3.003	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Colorado Rockies)	Binary
3.003	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Baltimore Orioles)	Binary
3.003	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Milwaukee Brewers)	Binary
3.003	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Washington Nationals)	Binary
3.003	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Boston Red Sox)	Binary
3.003	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (San Francisco Giants)	Binary
3.002	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Chicago White Sox)	Binary
3.002	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Detroit Tigers)	Binary
3.002	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Los Angeles Angels)	Binary
3.002	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Kansas City Royals)	Binary
3.002	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
2.275	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
1.422	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
0.023	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Egyptian Pound £E)	Binary
-4.713	Will Wales score a goal against England on Tuesday?	Binary
-9.174	Will "Counterfeit Diversity: How Strategically Misrepresenting Gender Diversity Dampens Organizations’ Perceived Sincerity and Elevates Women’s Identity Threat Concerns" (JPSP, 2022) replicate?	Continuous
-9.223	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-10.971	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-16.086	Who will win the 2022 World Series in baseball? (Houston Astros)	Binary
-20.538	Economic Trouble: Will a country’s currency depreciate 15% or more in the second half of 2022? (Turkish Lira ₺)	Binary
-21.455	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
-23.497	When will China end Covid Zero?	Continuous
-34.134	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
-56.479	Will the study “Knowledge about others reduces one’s own sense of anonymity” (Nature, 2022) replicate?	Binary
-73.976	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
-85.836	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
-91.991	Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
-98.748	If Republicans win control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, who will be the next Majority Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives? (Rep. Tom Emmer)	Binary
-185.002	Who will win the FIDE World Fischer Random Chess Championship 2022? (Hikaru Nakamura)	Binary