draaglom

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6.821k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
117.469	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 14)	Continuous
117.235	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
111.954	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 7)	Continuous
111.631	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
110.245	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 1)	Continuous
99.108	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
98.919	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
97.580	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
97.551	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
97.188	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
97.014	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
95.798	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
95.523	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
95.169	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
93.863	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
93.463	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
93.341	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
93.110	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
92.862	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
92.774	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
92.748	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
92.025	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
91.630	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
91.601	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
90.413	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
90.322	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
89.936	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
89.589	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
88.523	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
88.004	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
87.941	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
87.825	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
86.260	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
84.802	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
84.433	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
81.581	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
81.369	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
80.744	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
80.713	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
80.465	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
79.527	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
79.441	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
78.734	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
78.155	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
78.004	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
77.754	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
76.782	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
75.802	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
75.366	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
75.261	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
74.896	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
73.977	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
73.054	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
72.914	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
71.066	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
70.843	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
70.137	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
69.877	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
69.480	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
68.639	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
67.908	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
66.383	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
66.130	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
65.783	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
65.772	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
65.462	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
65.261	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
64.596	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
63.783	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
63.568	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
62.605	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
61.827	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
60.225	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
59.479	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
59.023	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
58.122	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
57.478	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
57.211	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
55.988	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
55.307	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
55.270	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
53.455	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
53.406	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
51.106	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
51.021	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
49.169	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
44.657	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
43.377	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
40.970	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
40.166	Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?	Binary
39.990	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
39.693	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
37.517	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
36.730	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
33.008	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
32.378	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
32.012	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
31.208	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
31.165	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
29.545	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
29.028	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
28.579	Will "All Quiet on the Western Front" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?	Binary
28.390	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
25.988	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
25.127	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
24.400	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
23.125	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
21.965	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
21.652	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
21.375	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
21.315	How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election?	Continuous
20.461	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
20.128	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
19.896	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
18.591	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
18.504	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
17.482	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
16.629	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
15.943	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
15.304	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
14.529	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
13.758	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
11.617	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
9.445	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
7.141	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
5.901	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
4.569	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
3.451	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.351	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
3.288	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
2.614	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
2.613	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
0.615	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-1.151	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.576	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-1.604	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-4.550	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-12.763	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-13.500	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
-14.735	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-20.236	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
-20.499	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-26.884	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-43.756	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
-47.662	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
-50.374	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
-52.442	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-59.274	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-61.284	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-65.554	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
-67.056	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-70.960	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
-86.358	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-126.093	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-147.948	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

draaglom

User

draaglom