SpottedBear

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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8.353k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
204.766	How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
194.629	What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
153.957	How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
145.358	What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
125.086	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
124.896	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
122.542	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
121.043	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
118.870	How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
116.627	What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
116.303	What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
115.548	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
112.828	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
112.691	How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
104.838	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
101.902	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas)	Continuous
101.606	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
100.289	What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
99.315	Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?	Binary
98.759	Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
98.572	Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?	Binary
97.312	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
96.400	How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025)	Continuous
96.268	Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?	Binary
96.000	What will the world population be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
94.655	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
93.840	Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?	Binary
92.826	Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?	Binary
92.525	Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Binary
92.453	Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?	Binary
92.432	What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
91.551	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
90.476	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida)	Continuous
89.638	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York)	Continuous
89.105	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois)	Continuous
88.928	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado)	Continuous
88.764	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
88.623	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
88.623	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
88.623	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
88.549	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
88.471	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
88.310	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California)	Continuous
87.064	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
86.928	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts)	Continuous
86.714	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
86.455	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
83.488	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington)	Continuous
82.082	What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
79.857	What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
78.656	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (Peak)	Continuous
77.347	Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?	Binary
75.598	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
74.381	What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
73.764	Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?	Binary
73.264	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
70.026	What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
68.445	What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
67.002	What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be?	Continuous
66.883	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
66.545	What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024?	Continuous
66.175	Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?	Binary
66.073	What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
65.939	What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
63.333	What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
62.257	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
60.700	What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024?	Continuous
58.484	Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?	Binary
56.812	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
55.166	What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
54.173	What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
51.137	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
50.519	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
50.309	What will be the share of global light vehicles sold which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
47.240	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
47.129	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
45.659	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
40.068	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
37.497	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
37.234	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
36.114	What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
35.844	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
35.634	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
35.620	What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
34.951	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
34.918	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
34.515	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
34.399	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
33.875	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
33.819	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
32.643	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
32.632	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
32.603	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
31.235	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
31.232	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
31.190	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
31.190	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
31.080	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
30.960	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
30.924	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
30.435	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
29.989	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
29.278	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
29.094	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
28.768	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Min)	Continuous
28.541	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Min)	Continuous
27.999	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 hard red winter wheat - Max)	Continuous
27.747	Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?	Binary
27.274	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
26.032	What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024)	Continuous
25.597	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
23.995	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
23.590	How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024?	Continuous
22.458	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (US Gulf No.2 yellow maize - Max)	Continuous
21.601	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
21.536	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
21.406	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
21.406	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
20.740	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
20.373	What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?	Continuous
20.192	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Min)	Continuous
19.559	When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri)	Continuous
19.556	What will be the limit prices of these major crops from December 2021 to April 2023? (Thai AI super rice - Max)	Continuous
19.523	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
19.037	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
16.491	Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?	Binary
16.256	When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?	Continuous
16.130	How many cultivated meat ventures there will be in 2022 according to the GFI State of Industry report for that year?	Continuous
16.127	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
15.102	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
14.681	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
14.163	What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2023)	Continuous
13.993	How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?	Continuous
13.941	What will the disclosed global venture capital investment in cultivated meat companies be in 2022 (in millions of USD)?	Continuous
13.125	What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024?	Continuous
12.302	What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024?	Continuous
10.633	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
10.490	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
10.151	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
9.985	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
8.930	When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)?	Continuous
7.722	What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024?	Continuous
7.351	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
7.172	What will the estimated number of people (in millions) in severe food insecurity be in 2022, according to the 2023 FAO “State of food security and nutrition in the world” annual report?	Continuous
5.799	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
4.878	Before 2025, will the US FDA authorize use of an at-home over-the-counter rapid test for influenza?	Binary
4.352	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
3.743	Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?	Binary
3.031	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
2.536	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
0.905	Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-6.312	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-7.355	What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023)	Continuous
-12.852	What will be the share of zero-emission vehicle federal fleet procurements in the United States in the following fiscal years? (2023)	Continuous
-14.868	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-22.358	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024)	Continuous
-42.896	How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo?	Continuous
-76.538	How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?	Continuous