MayMeta

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6.506k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
127.346	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
106.562	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
100.150	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
98.325	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
96.800	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
95.554	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
94.770	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
92.879	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
92.520	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
91.944	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
91.100	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
90.923	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
87.458	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
84.114	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
83.988	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
83.819	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
83.449	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
83.426	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
83.397	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
83.369	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
83.360	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
83.289	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
83.207	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
83.176	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
83.086	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
82.865	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
82.852	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
82.833	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
82.756	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
82.654	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
82.356	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
80.916	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
80.770	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 14)	Continuous
80.268	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
80.136	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
78.229	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
77.977	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
76.439	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
76.359	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
74.499	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
74.170	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
73.198	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
68.721	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
67.751	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
66.740	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
65.587	What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years? (2023)	Continuous
64.799	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
64.518	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
62.099	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
60.669	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
59.820	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
59.352	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
57.699	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
57.640	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
57.599	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
57.435	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
55.574	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
55.548	What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023?	Continuous
54.667	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
53.451	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
53.327	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
53.075	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
52.195	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
51.904	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
50.518	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
50.426	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
50.283	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
49.374	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
49.374	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
49.361	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
48.951	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
48.940	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
48.721	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
48.721	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
48.667	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
46.482	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
44.932	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
44.324	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
43.938	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 11)	Continuous
42.772	How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?	Continuous
41.630	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
41.385	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 11)	Continuous
39.710	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
39.567	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
39.205	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
38.486	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
38.182	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
37.889	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
37.454	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
36.038	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
36.004	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
35.843	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
35.608	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
34.866	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
33.827	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
33.175	How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience "high" or "very high" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?	Continuous
32.817	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
32.653	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
32.605	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
31.877	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
30.057	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
29.915	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
29.803	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
29.608	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
29.516	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
29.181	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
28.323	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
26.955	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
26.471	How many YouTube views will Center - Day 30 - Return by Yoga With Adriene have at the following dates? (February 7)	Continuous
26.158	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
26.063	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
25.723	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
23.568	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
23.283	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
22.346	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
22.087	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
19.972	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
19.797	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
19.603	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
19.526	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
18.351	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
15.357	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
14.641	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
14.100	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
13.991	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
13.540	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
12.845	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
11.836	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
11.194	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
10.978	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
9.504	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
9.336	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
8.522	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
8.365	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
7.044	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?	Binary
6.448	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
5.980	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
5.744	[Short Fuse] How many attendees will be at the next Metaculus Meetup? (February 2023)	Continuous
5.236	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
4.261	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
4.012	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
3.709	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
3.554	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.444	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
3.403	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.266	How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election?	Continuous
3.206	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
3.182	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.643	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
2.436	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
2.172	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.005	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
1.640	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
1.409	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
1.137	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
-1.618	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
-2.514	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
-3.183	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
-3.337	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-8.883	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
-10.971	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
-15.270	Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?	Binary
-18.219	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-22.484	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-30.700	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
-38.414	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-42.463	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-47.683	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-49.451	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
-66.979	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-300.614	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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