89.508 | Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
87.440 | Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula? | Continuous |
86.824 | In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"? | Binary |
86.274 | Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024? | Binary |
85.042 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol? | Binary |
80.807 | In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan? | Binary |
77.854 | On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia? | Binary |
77.375 | When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts? | Continuous |
76.884 | Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
74.709 | Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided) | Binary |
71.823 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner) | Binary |
71.820 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg) | Binary |
71.273 | Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
71.245 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere) | Binary |
70.926 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters) | Binary |
70.619 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer) | Binary |
70.511 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk? | Binary |
70.264 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel) | Binary |
70.034 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman) | Binary |
69.733 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis) | Binary |
68.513 | On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia? | Binary |
68.356 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis) | Binary |
68.277 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan) | Binary |
68.048 | Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023? | Binary |
65.451 | Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes) | Binary |
64.433 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks) | Binary |
64.194 | Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
62.983 | Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024? | Binary |
60.135 | Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024? | Binary |
59.633 | On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter? | Binary |
59.400 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
59.165 | In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran? | Binary |
58.999 | In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine? | Binary |
57.231 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
56.265 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023? | Binary |
55.537 | When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram? | Continuous |
54.881 | Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
54.495 | What will Asana's market cap be on December 1, 2023? | Continuous |
53.947 | Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023? | Binary |
52.617 | Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023? | Binary |
51.596 | Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024? | Binary |
51.239 | Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024? | Binary |
50.670 | Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024? | Binary |
50.320 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
50.202 | Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024? | Binary |
49.301 | In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court? | Binary |
49.067 | Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024? | Binary |
46.844 | Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024? | Binary |
45.488 | Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024? | Binary |
44.503 | Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk) | Binary |
44.345 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
43.922 | On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it? | Binary |
43.546 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023) | Binary |
41.584 | Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024? | Binary |
40.961 | Will the US ban TikTok before 2024? | Binary |
40.648 | Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
39.901 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-23) | Continuous |
38.800 | Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023? | Binary |
38.285 | What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023? | Continuous |
38.091 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024? | Binary |
37.794 | On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war? | Binary |
36.321 | Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024? | Binary |
36.235 | In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source? | Binary |
36.105 | Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
35.065 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-23) | Continuous |
35.016 | Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024? | Binary |
34.680 | Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024? | Binary |
34.632 | Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
34.243 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jun-23) | Continuous |
33.625 | Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester? | Binary |
31.503 | Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
30.633 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jul-23) | Continuous |
29.878 | Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024? | Binary |
29.549 | Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023? | Binary |
29.129 | Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? | Binary |
28.854 | How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) | Binary |
27.461 | Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the "C"s or worse before July 2023? | Binary |
27.029 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Giants) | Binary |
26.940 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
26.471 | Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023? | Binary |
26.184 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2023? | Binary |
25.770 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-23) | Continuous |
25.753 | Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023? | Binary |
25.661 | Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
25.539 | How much oil will Venezuela produce in 2022? | Continuous |
25.538 | Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
25.271 | Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022? | Binary |
24.859 | In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet? | Binary |
24.667 | Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
24.584 | Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination? | Binary |
24.271 | Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023? | Binary |
23.836 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-23) | Continuous |
23.463 | Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024? | Binary |
22.848 | What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
22.426 | On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024? | Binary |
22.420 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
21.781 | Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
21.548 | Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024? | Binary |
21.214 | Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023? | Binary |
20.829 | Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023? | Binary |
19.672 | In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)? | Binary |
19.077 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
19.001 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
18.908 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
18.736 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
18.684 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024) | Binary |
18.039 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
17.945 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024? | Binary |
17.534 | Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023? | Binary |
16.902 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Mar-23) | Continuous |
16.103 | How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022? | Continuous |
15.819 | Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
15.477 | Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023? | Binary |
14.843 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New York Jets) | Binary |
14.842 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
14.841 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
14.792 | In 2023 will any new country join NATO? | Binary |
14.765 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
14.624 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
14.426 | Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024? | Binary |
14.297 | In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4? | Binary |
13.882 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Feb-23) | Continuous |
12.304 | Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
12.096 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023? | Binary |
11.925 | What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022? | Continuous |
11.383 | Will the Peoples Democratic Party win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential election? | Binary |
11.190 | How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)? | Continuous |
10.666 | When will GPT-4 be announced? | Continuous |
10.201 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Tottenham Hotspur) | Continuous |
10.161 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leicester City) | Continuous |
10.069 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
10.068 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
9.945 | In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency? | Binary |
9.798 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
9.722 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Continuous |
9.684 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
9.678 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Fulham) | Continuous |
9.609 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Crystal Palace) | Continuous |
9.583 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Aston Villa) | Continuous |
9.331 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Continuous |
9.322 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Everton) | Continuous |
9.223 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (West Ham United) | Continuous |
9.207 | Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024? | Binary |
9.189 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Wolverhampton Wanderers) | Continuous |
9.140 | Will Finland join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
9.060 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
9.004 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Continuous |
8.997 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Chelsea) | Continuous |
8.890 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Nottingham Forest) | Continuous |
8.617 | How many FAO domestic food price warnings in spring 2023? | Continuous |
8.328 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Newcastle United) | Continuous |
8.306 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Leeds United) | Continuous |
8.204 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Southampton) | Continuous |
8.201 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton and Hove Albion) | Continuous |
8.187 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Continuous |
7.971 | How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season? | Continuous |
7.955 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Continuous |
7.515 | Will Philip Davis cease to be Prime Minister of the Bahamas before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
7.438 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024? | Binary |
7.284 | Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
7.230 | What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Continuous |
7.078 | How many points will be scored by these teams in the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Bournemouth) | Continuous |
6.916 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brighton & Hove Albion) | Binary |
6.637 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
6.531 | In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges? | Binary |
6.371 | Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? | Binary |
5.752 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
5.308 | Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023? | Binary |
5.188 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
4.965 | Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election? | Binary |
4.929 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
4.848 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
4.817 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
4.628 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
4.546 | Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023? | Binary |
4.357 | In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell? | Continuous |
3.946 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Apr-23) | Continuous |
3.114 | Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022? | Binary |
2.576 | In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high? | Binary |
2.199 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
2.170 | Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
2.139 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
2.134 | Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024? | Binary |
1.993 | In Project for Awesome 2023, how many videos will be made for EA charities? | Continuous |
1.853 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Liverpool) | Binary |
1.708 | Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023? | Binary |
0.774 | Will Anthropic launch a Large Language Model at the following levels of access before Sept 30, 2023? (Public) | Binary |
0.641 | What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022? | Continuous |
0.462 | Who will win the 2022-2023 Premier League? (Brentford) | Binary |
0.328 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
0.328 | Who will win the 2023 NFL Super Bowl? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
0.225 | Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023? | Binary |
0.163 | How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022? | Continuous |
0.024 | What will be the total venture capital funding (in USD) for Anthropic, Adept, Character, Inflection, Conjecture, Cohere, & Huggingface on June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
-2.016 | Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000? | Binary |
-2.209 | Will OPEC raise its forecast for 2023 global oil demand in its January 2023 report? | Binary |
-2.456 | Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024? | Binary |
-2.605 | Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%? | Binary |
-3.044 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023? | Binary |
-3.044 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
-3.629 | Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)? | Continuous |
-3.997 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023) | Binary |
-4.457 | Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023? | Binary |
-7.719 | How many politically motivated criminal offenses will be reported in Germany for 2022? | Continuous |
-10.710 | If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass? | Binary |
-12.898 | When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day? | Continuous |
-13.614 | By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? | Binary |
-20.115 | In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China? | Binary |
-27.611 | Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023) | Binary |
-29.477 | Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023? | Binary |
-29.655 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
-39.557 | Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024? | Binary |
-41.753 | Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
-42.768 | Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023? | Binary |
-63.939 | In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset? | Binary |
-69.796 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
-96.940 | In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit? | Binary |
-171.975 | What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024? | Continuous |