131.441 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
96.828 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
96.366 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
95.641 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
95.413 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
95.246 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
94.950 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
94.765 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
91.466 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
88.545 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
83.346 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
82.899 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
78.020 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
77.452 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
77.411 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
77.403 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
77.354 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
76.620 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
76.595 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
76.284 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
76.192 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
76.171 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
74.745 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
74.239 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
71.334 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
70.285 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
69.994 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
69.944 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
69.894 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
69.844 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
68.394 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
65.646 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
64.921 | What will be the lowest monthly value for US total capacity utilization in 2023? | Continuous |
62.173 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
62.026 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
57.878 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
57.837 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
57.354 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
56.264 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
56.136 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
56.103 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
53.090 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
52.499 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
52.335 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
52.280 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
52.249 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
52.219 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
52.191 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
52.065 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
51.145 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
50.299 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
49.826 | What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
49.741 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
49.395 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
49.065 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
49.016 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
49.016 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
48.979 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
48.050 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
47.124 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
47.018 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
46.897 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
45.913 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
45.377 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
44.504 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
43.516 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
42.991 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
42.168 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
42.042 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
41.180 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
39.700 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
38.085 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
37.439 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
37.133 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
36.179 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
35.100 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
33.061 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
32.892 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
30.361 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
29.346 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
27.999 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
27.366 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
25.564 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
25.360 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
24.738 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
24.548 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
24.168 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
23.959 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
23.650 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
22.071 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
21.321 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
18.875 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
18.747 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
18.378 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
18.156 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
17.308 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
17.257 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
14.974 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
14.894 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
14.892 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
14.230 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
14.114 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
14.007 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
13.942 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
12.666 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
12.307 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
12.206 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
12.188 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
11.902 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
11.240 | How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022? | Continuous |
11.125 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022? | Continuous |
10.760 | When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed? | Continuous |
10.466 | Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
10.340 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
10.325 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
10.288 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
9.949 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
9.728 | Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022? | Binary |
9.695 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
9.659 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
9.536 | What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022? | Continuous |
9.060 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
8.794 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
8.772 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
8.297 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
8.271 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
7.821 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
7.681 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
7.386 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
7.374 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
7.187 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
7.119 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
7.068 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
6.516 | What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
6.458 | What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
5.777 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
5.640 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
5.615 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
5.506 | Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023? | Binary |
5.385 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
5.355 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
5.306 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
4.736 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
4.600 | How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? | Continuous |
4.247 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
4.122 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
4.017 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
3.743 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
3.666 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
3.628 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
3.189 | Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022? | Binary |
3.011 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
2.634 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
2.624 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
2.588 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
2.421 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
1.377 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
1.365 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
0.888 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
0.825 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
0.735 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
0.605 | Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
0.580 | What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022? | Continuous |
0.434 | What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022? | Continuous |
0.388 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
0.388 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
0.388 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
0.388 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
0.388 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
0.388 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
0.354 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
0.354 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
0.332 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
0.064 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
-0.009 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
-0.153 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
-0.632 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
-0.710 | Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023? | Binary |
-0.745 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
-1.324 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022? | Continuous |
-1.565 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
-1.861 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
-2.699 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-6.390 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
-8.279 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
-9.915 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
-15.149 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
-15.723 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
-15.994 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
-17.994 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
-31.323 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
-31.991 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
-42.205 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-51.394 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
-113.567 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |