| 214.309 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 124.423 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 114.667 | What will the United States' federal debt-to-GDP ratio be in the following years? (2025) | Continuous |
| 101.452 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 99.781 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 99.557 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 99.401 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 99.051 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 99.051 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 98.949 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.766 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 98.671 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 98.583 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.404 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.247 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 97.840 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.840 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 97.840 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 97.840 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 97.527 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 97.527 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 97.527 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 97.288 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.080 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.022 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.896 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 96.622 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.268 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 96.201 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.032 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 95.956 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.161 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.947 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.607 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.288 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 94.281 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 94.098 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.017 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 93.759 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 93.570 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 93.519 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.382 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 92.724 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.172 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 91.843 | Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.531 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.981 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 90.866 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 90.203 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.989 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.015 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 88.934 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 87.591 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 85.270 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 85.142 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 84.783 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 83.845 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 83.790 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 83.513 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 81.078 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 80.038 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024) | Continuous |
| 79.749 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 79.678 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 76.238 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 75.257 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 74.859 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 74.703 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 73.468 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 72.786 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 70.960 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024) | Continuous |
| 70.396 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 69.040 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 68.349 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 67.380 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 67.329 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 66.559 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 65.975 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 65.283 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 65.254 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 64.602 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 63.993 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 63.906 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 63.039 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 62.397 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 62.308 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 62.077 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 61.845 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 61.520 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 60.067 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
| 58.986 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 58.420 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 57.061 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 56.945 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 56.050 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 54.282 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 53.656 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 51.526 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 51.485 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 51.160 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 50.330 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 49.873 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| 49.559 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 49.271 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 48.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 48.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 48.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 48.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 48.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 48.392 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 47.793 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.439 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 46.293 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 45.925 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 45.415 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 44.987 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 44.902 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 43.833 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 42.994 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 42.216 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 41.503 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 41.042 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 40.621 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024) | Continuous |
| 40.003 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 39.974 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 39.913 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.791 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 39.372 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 39.046 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 37.102 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 36.897 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 36.594 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 36.047 | BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? (Yes) → Federal Funds Target Range Upper Limit (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 35.501 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 35.501 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 35.144 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 33.315 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.493 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 32.332 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 31.654 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 31.261 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 30.618 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 30.008 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 29.812 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 29.628 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 29.580 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.105 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 28.999 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 27.961 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 27.609 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 26.970 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024) | Continuous |
| 26.679 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 26.118 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 25.980 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 25.250 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 25.239 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 24.778 | Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.725 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 23.496 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 22.480 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 21.670 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 21.143 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 20.374 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 20.374 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 20.371 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 20.316 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 20.008 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 19.935 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 19.890 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 19.472 | How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo? | Continuous |
| 19.456 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 19.304 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 18.978 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 18.673 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.185 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 18.180 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 18.090 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 18.015 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 18.015 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 17.938 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 17.772 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 17.106 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 16.422 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 16.366 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 16.348 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 15.568 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 15.321 | What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 15.147 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 15.030 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 14.519 | What will be the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) on June 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 13.818 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.510 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 13.479 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 13.280 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 13.248 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 12.995 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 12.088 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 11.733 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 10.944 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 10.900 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 10.679 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 9.871 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 9.317 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 9.290 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 9.250 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 8.406 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 8.153 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 7.983 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 7.814 | Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections? | Binary |
| 7.330 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 7.330 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 6.936 | What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 6.743 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 6.735 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 6.735 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 6.735 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 6.735 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 6.735 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 6.329 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 6.328 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| 5.797 | How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 5.796 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 5.641 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 4.596 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| 4.523 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 4.229 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 4.201 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.936 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats) | Continuous |
| 3.612 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 3.206 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 3.114 | Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022? | Binary |
| 2.726 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 2.724 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
| 2.650 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 2.321 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.197 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party) | Continuous |
| 1.706 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 1.621 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 1.526 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 1.322 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 1.316 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 1.298 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 1.037 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party) | Continuous |
| 0.903 | When will Oleksii Reznikov cease to hold the office of the Minister of Defence of Ukraine? | Continuous |
| 0.538 | What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.447 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 0.260 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 0.083 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.075 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| -1.071 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -1.108 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -3.560 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -4.957 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| -15.765 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| -20.632 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -20.769 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -29.436 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -35.624 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -45.607 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -52.279 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -56.716 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -109.121 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -112.737 | Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -112.908 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -115.217 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -118.602 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -139.155 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -140.788 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -394.911 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |