evergreenemily

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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10.08k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
128.618	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
119.841	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
106.690	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
98.644	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
98.471	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
98.109	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
97.624	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2023)	Continuous
97.382	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
96.028	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
94.744	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
94.689	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
94.126	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
93.741	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
92.966	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
92.461	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
92.426	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
92.228	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
91.634	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
90.739	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
90.691	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
90.454	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
90.322	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
89.631	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
89.060	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
87.812	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
87.555	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
84.646	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
84.383	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
84.383	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
84.383	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
84.383	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
84.383	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
84.383	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
84.383	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
84.383	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
84.382	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
84.382	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
84.208	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
83.739	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
83.645	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
83.419	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
83.415	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
83.414	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
83.414	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
83.413	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
83.112	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
82.596	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
82.342	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
82.064	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
81.939	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
81.878	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
81.766	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
81.766	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
81.599	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
80.211	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
80.043	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
79.525	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
79.193	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
77.365	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
77.052	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
76.857	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
76.483	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
74.280	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
71.252	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
70.097	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
69.916	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
68.978	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
67.791	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
67.585	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
67.549	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
67.386	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
66.480	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
66.402	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
65.442	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
65.278	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
64.324	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
62.852	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
62.807	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
62.572	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
62.537	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
62.144	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
62.127	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
62.044	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
61.111	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
60.658	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
60.473	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
60.421	How many Palestinian prisoners/detainees will Israel announce that it will release before 2024?	Continuous
60.387	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (June 2023)	Continuous
60.330	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
59.731	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
59.415	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
59.112	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
58.672	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
58.194	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
56.472	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
55.491	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
54.841	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
54.759	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
54.103	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
53.724	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
53.520	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
51.260	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
51.224	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
50.495	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
50.464	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
50.462	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
50.436	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
49.929	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
49.929	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
49.929	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
49.929	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
49.929	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
49.929	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
49.929	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
49.830	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
48.978	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
46.764	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
46.577	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
46.274	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
45.874	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
45.817	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
45.805	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
45.781	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
45.656	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
45.643	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
45.454	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
45.315	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
45.234	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
44.820	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
44.812	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
44.425	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
44.251	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
44.077	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
44.077	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
43.819	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
43.704	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
43.697	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
43.101	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
42.532	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
41.911	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
41.718	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
41.638	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
40.462	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
40.399	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
40.288	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
39.792	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
39.193	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
38.916	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
38.284	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
36.557	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
35.152	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
31.799	What will be the water level of Lake Mead (in feet) at the end of July of the following years? (2023)	Continuous
31.621	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
29.964	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
29.724	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
29.282	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.471	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
26.985	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
26.091	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
26.066	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
25.691	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
25.267	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
25.070	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
24.515	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
24.086	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
23.553	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
22.778	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
22.136	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
19.652	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
18.812	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
18.284	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
18.091	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
17.609	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
16.214	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
15.887	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
15.770	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
14.910	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
14.767	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
14.733	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
14.689	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
14.439	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
13.827	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
13.781	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
13.730	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
13.666	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
13.344	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
13.252	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
13.061	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
13.004	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
13.004	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
12.363	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
12.114	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
11.868	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
11.490	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
11.077	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
10.828	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
9.748	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
9.489	When will The One Ring be found?	Continuous
9.339	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
9.325	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
9.231	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.186	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
9.180	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
8.822	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
8.771	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
8.178	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
8.152	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
8.019	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
7.944	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.574	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
6.966	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
6.966	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
6.744	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
6.624	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
5.984	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
5.956	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
5.855	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
5.424	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
5.319	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
5.227	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
2.663	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
2.346	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
2.346	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
2.237	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
2.204	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
2.204	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
2.113	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
1.657	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
1.392	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
0.990	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
0.131	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
0.000	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
-	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
-	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
-0.000	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
-1.330	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
-1.453	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
-3.489	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.923	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-5.134	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-7.914	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-8.148	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-9.726	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
-13.785	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-16.932	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
-38.320	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
-40.890	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-60.030	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-62.383	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-70.849	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-73.263	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
-73.399	Will the March seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States be lower than 3.6%?	Binary
-79.508	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-79.749	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-120.688	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary
-133.698	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-224.729	How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years? (2024)	Continuous

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

evergreenemily

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evergreenemily