TheAGI

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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7.555k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.792	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
97.492	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
97.474	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
97.325	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
95.852	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
95.412	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
93.894	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
93.894	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
93.894	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
93.133	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
92.308	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
92.107	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
91.831	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
90.750	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
90.029	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
88.722	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
88.343	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
86.781	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
86.738	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
85.753	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
85.680	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
85.529	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
84.991	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
84.641	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
84.207	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
84.154	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
82.930	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
81.510	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
81.454	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
81.274	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
81.274	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
81.274	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
81.273	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
81.273	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
81.273	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
81.230	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
79.917	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
79.917	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
79.917	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
79.917	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
79.917	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
79.406	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Te Pāti Māori)	Continuous
78.869	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
78.733	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
78.569	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
78.338	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
78.163	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
78.006	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
77.220	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
76.414	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
76.367	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
75.253	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
75.191	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
74.351	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
73.883	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
73.356	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
73.302	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
73.302	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
73.302	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
73.302	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
73.301	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
73.301	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
73.301	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
73.301	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
73.301	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
73.301	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
73.300	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
73.300	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
73.300	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
73.300	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
73.300	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
73.300	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
73.300	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
72.913	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
72.145	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
71.584	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
71.583	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
71.583	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
71.583	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
71.583	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
71.040	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
69.865	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
69.319	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
69.025	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
68.134	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
67.335	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
67.040	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (ACT)	Continuous
66.640	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
66.288	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
63.410	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+Greens+FDP)	Binary
63.410	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens)	Binary
62.283	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
62.146	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
61.331	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
61.327	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
60.926	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Green)	Continuous
59.792	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
59.592	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
59.381	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+FDP+Greens)	Binary
59.380	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+Greens)	Binary
58.395	In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?	Binary
58.101	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
57.921	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
57.373	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
57.300	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (Greens+CDU)	Binary
56.667	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
56.639	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
54.669	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
54.303	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (National)	Continuous
53.826	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
53.569	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
53.433	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
53.184	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
53.084	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
52.989	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
52.724	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
50.124	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
50.104	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
49.888	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
49.124	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
49.123	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
49.123	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
49.123	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
49.123	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
49.123	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
49.122	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
48.950	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Short-Term Extension (Less Than Five Years))	Binary
48.934	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
48.934	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
48.899	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
48.401	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
47.927	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
47.416	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
47.416	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
47.415	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
46.724	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
45.941	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
45.764	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
45.679	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
44.973	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (CDU+SPD+FDP)	Binary
44.954	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
44.123	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
44.061	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
42.610	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
42.245	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
41.811	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
41.811	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
41.153	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
40.463	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
40.361	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
40.123	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
40.033	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
39.987	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
38.387	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
37.873	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
37.716	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
37.686	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
37.106	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
36.711	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
35.320	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
35.111	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
34.489	How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election?	Continuous
34.487	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
32.934	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
32.693	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
31.472	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
30.936	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
30.742	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
30.682	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
30.615	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
30.545	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
30.196	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Dec-2023)	Continuous
30.005	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
29.974	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
29.809	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
29.632	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
29.443	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
29.437	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
29.059	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
29.059	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
29.059	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
28.325	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
26.515	Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?	Binary
26.199	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
25.913	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
25.147	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.109	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
24.913	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
24.008	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
23.858	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
23.535	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
21.941	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
21.902	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
21.692	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
21.406	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
21.392	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
21.392	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
21.263	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
20.594	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
20.021	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
19.680	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
19.663	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
18.633	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
18.528	What percentage of the vote will Abdel Fattah El-Sisi win in the first round of the 2023 Egyptian Presidential election?	Continuous
18.364	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
18.183	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
17.462	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
17.263	When will The One Ring be found?	Continuous
17.092	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
17.006	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
16.893	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
16.767	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
16.567	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
16.511	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
16.203	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
16.158	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
16.134	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
16.116	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
15.897	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
15.897	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
15.897	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
15.897	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
15.877	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
14.673	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
13.544	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
13.003	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour)	Continuous
12.289	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
11.893	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
11.836	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
11.425	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
11.007	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.850	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
10.216	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
9.789	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
9.558	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
9.433	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
8.892	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
8.752	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
8.716	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
8.568	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.392	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
8.322	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
8.230	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
8.068	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
7.981	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
7.865	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
7.860	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
7.756	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
7.756	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
7.686	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.312	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.731	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
6.698	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
6.473	Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season?	Binary
6.337	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
6.044	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
5.013	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
4.783	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
4.563	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
4.550	How many workers will go on strike as part of major work stoppages in the US in 2023?	Continuous
4.537	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
4.507	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
4.287	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
4.238	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
4.225	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
4.194	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
4.174	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
4.113	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
3.926	Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
3.840	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
3.744	Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?	Binary
3.730	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
3.697	What will the annual return rate (in USD) of the S&P MERVAL be during 2023?	Continuous
3.684	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
3.535	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
3.442	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
3.439	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
3.272	What will be the value of bilateral US-Taiwan trade in 2023?	Continuous
3.030	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
2.818	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
2.774	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
2.735	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
2.729	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
2.656	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
2.479	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
2.198	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
2.054	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
1.581	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
1.399	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
1.393	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
1.116	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
0.934	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
0.786	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Los Angeles Dodgers)	Binary
0.765	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
0.405	Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?	Binary
0.314	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
0.205	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
0.203	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.149	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
0.088	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
0.053	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
-	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
-0.112	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Atlanta Braves)	Binary
-0.174	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
-1.093	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-2.048	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
-2.352	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
-2.502	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-2.817	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
-2.856	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
-2.863	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
-4.934	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-6.118	Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?	Binary
-6.668	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
-8.005	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-9.493	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
-10.353	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
-10.598	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-10.761	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
-12.326	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-12.919	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-13.180	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-14.303	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
-14.445	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-14.604	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
-16.386	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
-16.752	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-18.300	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
-19.118	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
-20.118	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-21.352	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+Greens+Left)	Binary
-22.267	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-23.838	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-24.201	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
-24.417	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-25.384	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-27.940	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
-28.521	Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?	Binary
-28.875	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
-29.040	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
-30.279	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
-31.774	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-31.939	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
-35.599	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-37.483	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-37.483	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
-40.547	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
-41.503	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
-42.526	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
-47.085	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
-52.566	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
-55.593	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
-58.039	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-58.647	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
-58.908	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-59.762	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-85.872	How many beginners will be in the top 20 of the Point Rankings for Questions Opened in the Last 30 Days on February 28?	Continuous
-86.735	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-87.080	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-98.984	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
-116.046	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
-121.617	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-127.212	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
-130.174	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-166.416	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary
-220.545	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-225.407	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
-233.467	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-314.204	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-323.753	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
-374.325	What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election? (SPD+CDU)	Binary
-472.278	Will PEPFAR be extended before it expires on September 30th, 2023? (Full Extension (Five or More Years))	Binary
-551.160	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary

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