| 98.484 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 98.484 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 98.484 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 98.357 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 98.331 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.831 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 97.822 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 97.778 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 97.581 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.581 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 97.581 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 97.552 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.552 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 97.552 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.552 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.343 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 97.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 97.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 97.054 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 96.701 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.559 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 95.069 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 94.855 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 93.850 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 93.850 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 93.850 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 93.850 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 93.850 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 91.867 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 91.867 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 91.867 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 91.127 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 90.877 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 90.781 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 88.747 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.436 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 87.640 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.091 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 86.511 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 86.511 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 85.679 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 84.619 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 84.619 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 83.306 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 82.856 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 82.856 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 82.856 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 82.856 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 82.856 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 82.856 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 82.801 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 82.327 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 82.191 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 79.557 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 79.237 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 78.027 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 77.439 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 77.439 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 76.928 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 76.288 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 73.977 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 73.881 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 72.813 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 72.184 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 72.184 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 71.794 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 71.721 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 71.660 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 71.660 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 70.818 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 70.495 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 70.236 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 70.069 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 69.617 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 68.289 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.887 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 67.779 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 67.737 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 67.423 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 67.423 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 67.423 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 67.423 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 67.423 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 67.244 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 67.024 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 66.992 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 66.138 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 66.103 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 66.099 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 65.864 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 63.644 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 63.171 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 63.170 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 62.465 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 62.000 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 61.775 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 61.239 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 61.097 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 61.097 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 61.009 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 61.006 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 60.574 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 60.522 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 60.514 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 60.459 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 59.903 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 59.247 | Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election? | Binary |
| 58.887 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.887 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.886 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.673 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 58.673 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 57.605 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 57.556 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 57.090 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 56.976 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 56.617 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 56.281 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 55.284 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 54.790 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 54.710 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 54.621 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 54.439 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 54.049 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 53.263 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 53.263 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 52.002 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 51.802 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 51.802 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| 51.768 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 51.471 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 50.992 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 49.358 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 49.358 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 49.358 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 49.358 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 49.358 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 49.037 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 49.027 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 49.027 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 48.915 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 48.915 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 48.915 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 48.368 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 46.930 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 45.766 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 45.218 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 45.081 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 44.080 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 43.196 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 43.182 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 42.446 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 42.388 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 42.250 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024) | Continuous |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 41.112 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 40.633 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 39.954 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 39.500 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 39.290 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 39.190 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 39.190 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 38.945 | Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024? | Binary |
| 38.467 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 37.909 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 37.496 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 37.274 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 37.174 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 36.734 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 36.370 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 34.581 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 34.191 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| 33.999 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 33.200 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 33.174 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 32.793 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 31.160 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024) | Continuous |
| 29.240 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 29.221 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 28.920 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 28.596 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 28.043 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 27.801 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 26.848 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 26.774 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 25.965 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 25.890 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 25.753 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.934 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 24.857 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 24.829 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 24.562 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 24.519 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 23.690 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 23.573 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| 23.491 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 21.250 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 21.250 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 21.234 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 21.096 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 20.713 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 20.638 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 20.413 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 20.413 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 20.413 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 20.413 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 20.413 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 20.413 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 20.413 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 20.413 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 20.413 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 19.739 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 19.336 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 19.108 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| 18.427 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 18.294 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.982 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 17.370 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 17.238 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 16.529 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 16.529 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 16.233 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 16.232 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 15.669 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 15.565 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 15.367 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 15.367 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 14.111 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 13.970 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 13.798 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 13.760 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 13.760 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 13.760 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 13.760 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 13.242 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 13.128 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 13.078 | What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022? | Continuous |
| 12.957 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 12.893 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 12.549 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 12.396 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 12.336 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
| 11.804 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 11.572 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 11.534 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 11.443 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 11.436 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 10.984 | Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.930 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 10.871 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 10.725 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 10.718 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 9.373 | What will Great Britain's maximum solar power capacity (MW) be for October 2024? | Continuous |
| 8.974 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 8.943 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 8.795 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 8.641 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 8.572 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 8.500 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 8.472 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 8.472 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 8.374 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 8.020 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 8.001 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.841 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 7.646 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 7.447 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 7.438 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 7.248 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 7.156 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 7.140 | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | Binary |
| 7.039 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 6.776 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 6.487 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 6.409 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 6.367 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 6.269 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx) | Binary |
| 6.187 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 6.181 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 5.991 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| 5.760 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 5.309 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 5.299 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 5.299 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| 5.299 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| 5.259 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
| 5.061 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 5.061 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 5.061 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.061 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 5.061 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 4.898 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.727 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun) | Binary |
| 4.703 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 4.118 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 4.116 | Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election? | Binary |
| 4.019 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 3.903 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 3.841 | When will Open-Assistant be available for public use via a web interface? | Continuous |
| 3.828 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 3.766 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 3.652 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 3.637 | Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024? | Binary |
| 3.560 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 3.522 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 3.466 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.415 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 3.380 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 3.349 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 3.293 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 3.291 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 3.231 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 3.090 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 3.070 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.003 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 2.995 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 2.934 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
| 2.826 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 2.826 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| 2.823 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.823 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 2.823 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 2.499 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 2.398 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis) | Continuous |
| 2.318 | Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022? | Binary |
| 2.308 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 2.236 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 2.154 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 2.077 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 2.060 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.015 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 1.981 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 1.930 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 1.885 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| 1.826 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.825 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 1.825 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 1.744 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.625 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.578 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 1.525 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.525 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.524 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.524 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.521 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.517 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.516 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.516 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.472 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.448 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.403 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.374 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| 1.353 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| 1.349 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 1.318 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.245 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.190 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 1.188 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Indiana Fever) | Binary |
| 1.188 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Phoenix Mercury) | Binary |
| 1.167 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | Continuous |
| 1.090 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.058 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 0.994 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.935 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.893 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.876 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream) | Binary |
| 0.876 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Seattle Storm) | Binary |
| 0.847 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 0.751 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 0.692 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 0.619 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.585 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.556 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 0.538 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.534 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.431 | How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation? | Continuous |
| 0.425 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.397 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.397 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.397 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.397 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.397 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.397 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 0.375 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 0.338 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.319 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Asa Hutchinson) | Continuous |
| 0.318 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.296 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 0.293 | In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election? | Binary |
| 0.193 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 0.106 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks) | Binary |
| 0.106 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics) | Binary |
| 0.106 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky) | Binary |
| 0.106 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Dallas Wings) | Binary |
| 0.094 | Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.087 | What will be the lowest monthly value for US total capacity utilization in 2023? | Continuous |
| 0.085 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 0.084 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Continuous |
| 0.076 | Will Tether collapse before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.057 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| 0.045 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.043 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 0.017 | Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.011 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.011 | Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.011 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.009 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 0.009 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.007 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| - | Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections? | Binary |
| -0.000 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | Continuous |
| -0.009 | What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| -0.013 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -0.013 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| -0.038 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| -0.077 | When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)? | Continuous |
| -0.123 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -0.184 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| -0.360 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| -0.371 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -0.371 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -0.371 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| -0.371 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| -0.371 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| -0.402 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| -0.469 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| -0.568 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -0.569 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| -1.226 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| -2.175 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -2.471 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| -2.737 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -3.495 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -3.704 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| -4.688 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty) | Binary |
| -4.729 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -4.939 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
| -6.450 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces) | Binary |
| -8.095 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -8.310 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| -9.004 | When will the first Activision/Blizzard/King game be added to Xbox Game Pass? | Continuous |
| -10.365 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| -11.663 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| -11.709 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| -14.320 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024) | Continuous |
| -15.113 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| -16.959 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -21.554 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -27.630 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -30.059 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| -34.857 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| -36.851 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -38.957 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| -46.477 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -49.418 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -51.156 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| -52.724 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| -54.144 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -55.270 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -55.539 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| -57.505 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -59.838 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -60.563 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -65.754 | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -71.865 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -73.855 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -113.684 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -114.491 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -114.755 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -126.035 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -129.359 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -129.955 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -145.710 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -166.727 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| -195.274 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -203.293 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -208.412 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -283.020 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| -424.385 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| -559.431 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| -559.969 | Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025? | Binary |