Heramb_42

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2.89k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.561	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
97.123	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
96.655	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
96.519	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
96.404	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
94.344	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
94.163	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
94.055	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
93.478	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
91.413	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
89.346	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
88.987	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
88.883	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
88.837	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
87.953	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
87.824	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
86.995	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
85.958	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
81.431	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
80.162	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
79.752	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
77.230	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
76.597	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
75.564	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
74.792	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
74.259	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
72.849	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
72.805	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
71.294	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
70.355	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
67.070	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
62.344	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
62.134	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
60.308	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
59.423	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
57.368	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
56.457	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
56.187	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
55.385	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
54.933	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
52.364	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
50.673	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
50.056	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
48.930	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
43.965	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
43.944	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
43.369	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
43.106	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
42.796	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
42.071	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
41.154	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
40.497	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
40.076	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
39.402	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
37.344	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
36.705	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
34.753	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
33.687	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
32.962	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
32.084	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
31.594	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
30.547	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
30.148	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
30.148	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
30.095	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
29.896	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
29.678	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
28.612	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
28.318	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
28.114	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
27.257	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
26.306	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
26.079	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
25.868	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
25.517	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
24.712	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
23.942	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
23.893	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
23.414	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
23.141	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
22.436	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
22.262	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
20.921	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
20.921	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
20.921	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
20.133	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
19.377	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
19.243	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.100	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
18.958	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.154	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
17.937	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
17.937	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
17.937	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
17.937	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
17.937	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
17.936	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
17.936	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
17.936	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
17.935	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
17.935	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
17.935	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
17.935	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
17.934	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
17.934	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
17.932	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
17.932	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
17.694	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
17.605	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.324	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
17.003	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in January 2023?	Continuous
16.905	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
16.875	Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?	Binary
16.392	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
14.647	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
13.506	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
12.679	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
12.008	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
10.927	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
10.531	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
10.412	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
10.177	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
10.018	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
9.930	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
8.217	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
8.034	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
7.930	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
7.532	What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2024?	Continuous
7.376	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.372	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
7.195	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
7.114	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
6.904	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
6.143	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
5.857	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
5.027	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
4.983	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
4.978	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
4.978	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
4.978	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
4.978	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
4.977	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
4.977	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
4.977	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
4.977	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
4.977	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
4.977	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
4.977	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
4.977	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
4.977	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
4.895	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
4.678	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
4.661	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.459	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
4.139	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
3.054	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.587	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.787	Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?	Binary
0.924	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
0.924	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
0.924	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
0.924	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
0.924	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
0.596	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
0.413	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
0.278	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (Feb 25)	Continuous
-0.611	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
-0.904	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
-1.048	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
-1.239	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
-1.614	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
-3.647	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
-4.229	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
-4.275	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
-4.471	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
-6.563	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
-7.980	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-8.404	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
-10.400	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
-11.394	Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?	Binary
-13.776	What discretionary funding level will President Biden request for NASA in his 2024 budget?	Continuous
-14.358	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-16.139	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
-17.968	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
-24.687	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
-33.341	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-33.734	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
-36.250	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-39.643	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-42.447	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-43.206	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-44.195	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-48.230	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
-53.952	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
-57.758	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
-63.128	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
-75.728	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
-82.122	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-86.076	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-89.660	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
-123.491	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
-132.926	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
-134.061	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-140.525	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
-161.038	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-163.246	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-187.842	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary
-196.738	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
-353.642	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary

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Heramb_42

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Heramb_42