162.282 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
99.793 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
99.192 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
98.541 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
98.298 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
97.982 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
97.556 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
97.250 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
97.249 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
94.742 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
94.735 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
93.979 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
93.617 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
93.608 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
92.520 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
91.478 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
89.952 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
88.991 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
87.544 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
85.632 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
82.514 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
80.370 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
80.104 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
79.661 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
78.666 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
77.605 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
77.123 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
77.059 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
75.721 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
75.148 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
74.934 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
74.823 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
74.745 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
72.917 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
72.714 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
71.727 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
71.727 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
71.726 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
71.726 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
71.397 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
70.204 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
69.169 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
68.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
68.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
68.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
68.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
68.618 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
66.915 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
66.123 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
65.331 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
64.365 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
63.871 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
63.638 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
63.273 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
61.301 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
59.760 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
59.689 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
59.689 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
59.577 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
59.249 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
55.835 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
55.463 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
55.463 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
55.007 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
55.007 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
55.007 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
54.638 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
53.940 | Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont? | Binary |
52.260 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
51.630 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
49.509 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
48.006 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
47.952 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
46.796 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
46.796 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
46.796 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
46.796 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
46.796 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
46.796 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
46.246 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
46.200 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
43.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
43.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
43.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
43.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
43.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
42.999 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
42.999 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
42.736 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
42.584 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
42.045 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
40.841 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
40.002 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
39.170 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
38.400 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
38.400 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
38.194 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
37.968 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
37.864 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
36.182 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
36.139 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
35.780 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
35.780 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
35.780 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
35.780 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
34.592 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
34.216 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
33.162 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
33.002 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
32.312 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
31.300 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
30.848 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
30.216 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
29.499 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
29.324 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
29.279 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
28.604 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
27.954 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
26.151 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
25.696 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
24.974 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
24.974 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
24.974 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
24.967 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
24.295 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
23.209 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
23.209 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
23.209 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
22.614 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
22.614 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
22.045 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
22.015 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
21.905 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
21.281 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
20.832 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
20.531 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
20.531 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
20.531 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
20.346 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
17.117 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
16.498 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
16.166 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
15.313 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
14.830 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
14.444 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
14.420 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
14.347 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
14.210 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
13.835 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
13.561 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
12.893 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
12.861 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
11.631 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
11.631 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
11.574 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
11.531 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
11.531 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
9.763 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
9.763 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
8.413 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
8.290 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
8.212 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
7.112 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
6.690 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
6.564 | Will the Sacramento Kings advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs in 2024? | Binary |
6.194 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
6.194 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
6.177 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
6.177 | Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
6.023 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
5.855 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
5.849 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
5.841 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
5.687 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
5.687 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
5.671 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
5.557 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
5.446 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
5.399 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
5.399 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
4.970 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
4.852 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
4.402 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
3.649 | What will be the total size of Open Philanthropy's 2022 grants in the nuclear risk area? | Continuous |
3.046 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
2.166 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
2.015 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
1.910 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
1.299 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
0.988 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
0.903 | How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022? | Continuous |
0.350 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
0.318 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
0.115 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
0.055 | When will Oleksii Reznikov cease to hold the office of the Minister of Defence of Ukraine? | Continuous |
0.023 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
-0.000 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
-0.001 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
-0.405 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
-0.858 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
-6.352 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
-7.439 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
-7.712 | When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)? | Continuous |
-7.762 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
-9.321 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
-12.548 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
-13.409 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-16.043 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
-16.940 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
-20.096 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
-23.674 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
-33.439 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
-35.326 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
-37.966 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
-56.462 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
-56.510 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
-71.095 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
-78.299 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
-80.079 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
-97.552 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
-104.656 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
-120.890 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
-146.861 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
-196.613 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
-198.335 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
-223.473 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |