darron

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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11.05k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.490	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
98.431	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
96.704	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
96.703	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
96.213	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
94.995	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
94.825	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
94.515	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.452	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
94.331	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
93.800	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
93.178	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
91.965	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
91.054	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
91.046	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
91.046	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
91.045	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
91.045	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
91.045	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
90.786	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
89.786	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
89.120	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
89.076	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
88.581	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
88.281	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
87.417	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
86.910	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
85.891	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
85.740	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
85.514	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
85.184	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
84.234	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
84.043	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
83.492	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
83.375	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
83.104	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
82.887	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
82.394	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
81.706	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
81.051	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
80.948	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
80.425	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
79.598	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
79.521	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
78.467	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
78.151	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
77.698	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
77.187	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
76.052	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
74.330	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
74.268	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
74.268	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
74.268	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
74.268	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
74.268	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
74.268	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
74.268	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
73.855	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
73.612	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
73.463	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Te Pāti Māori)	Continuous
73.122	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
72.790	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
72.437	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
71.828	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
70.202	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (ACT)	Continuous
70.142	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
70.055	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
68.008	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
67.119	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
67.044	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
64.916	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
64.665	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
63.421	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
63.359	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
62.250	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
61.962	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
61.780	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
61.670	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
61.609	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
61.036	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
59.539	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Green)	Continuous
59.295	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
59.081	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
59.043	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
58.918	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
58.577	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
58.483	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
58.358	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
57.627	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
57.593	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
57.045	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
56.971	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
56.959	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
55.616	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
55.371	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
54.640	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
54.310	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
54.207	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
54.200	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (National)	Continuous
52.247	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
51.848	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
51.612	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
51.600	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
51.001	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
50.487	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
50.430	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
49.903	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
49.764	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
49.590	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
49.134	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
49.045	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
48.685	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
47.825	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
47.208	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
46.842	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
46.056	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
45.991	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
45.165	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
45.067	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
43.907	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
43.282	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
43.108	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
42.991	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
42.828	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
42.723	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
41.152	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
40.417	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
40.417	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
40.417	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
40.416	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
40.416	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
40.416	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
40.416	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
40.360	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
40.008	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
40.008	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
39.433	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
39.165	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
38.934	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
38.667	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
38.530	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
37.764	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
37.715	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
37.715	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
37.715	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
37.715	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
37.714	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
37.714	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
37.714	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
37.383	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
37.301	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
37.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
37.220	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
36.243	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
35.888	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
35.795	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
35.409	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
34.964	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
34.889	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
34.629	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
34.306	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
34.179	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
34.161	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
33.508	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
33.449	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
33.312	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
33.173	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
32.954	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
32.911	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
32.872	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
32.818	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
32.059	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
32.047	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
31.998	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
31.406	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
30.259	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
28.906	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
28.906	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
28.814	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
28.731	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
28.528	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
28.382	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
28.267	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
27.785	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
26.952	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
26.925	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
26.868	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
26.741	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
26.340	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
26.189	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
26.123	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
26.044	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
25.949	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
25.648	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
25.571	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
25.341	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
25.341	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
25.287	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
24.646	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
24.245	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
24.242	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
23.561	Will the Chinese team at the 64th International Math Olympiad be the top ranked team again?	Binary
23.518	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
23.226	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
22.962	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
22.857	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
22.752	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
22.502	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
22.404	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
22.403	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
21.789	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
21.558	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
21.240	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
19.721	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
18.877	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
18.775	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
18.420	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
17.118	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Rabiu Kwankwaso)	Binary
17.014	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
16.719	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
16.719	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
16.472	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
16.471	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
15.615	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
15.602	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
14.989	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
14.283	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
13.912	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
13.615	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
13.178	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
12.645	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
12.413	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
12.075	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
12.025	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
11.943	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
11.044	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour)	Continuous
10.970	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
10.821	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Atiku Abubakar)	Binary
10.049	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
9.826	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
9.318	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
9.273	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
8.891	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
8.849	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
8.629	How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election?	Continuous
8.539	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.182	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
8.164	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
8.074	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
7.714	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
7.649	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
7.550	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.428	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
6.996	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
6.845	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
6.612	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Peter Obi)	Binary
6.536	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
6.501	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
6.501	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
6.311	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
6.040	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
5.619	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
4.759	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
4.710	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
4.617	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
4.141	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
4.140	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
4.100	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
4.087	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
4.087	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
4.087	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
3.481	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
3.373	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.767	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
2.658	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
1.734	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
1.714	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.478	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
1.460	Who will win the 2023 Nigerian Presidential Election? (Bola Tinubu)	Binary
1.249	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
1.195	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
0.979	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
0.979	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
0.979	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
0.979	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
0.979	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
0.979	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
0.979	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
0.978	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
0.978	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
0.978	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
0.978	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
0.679	Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?	Binary
0.568	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
0.501	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.136	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-0.721	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
-0.956	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-2.649	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
-3.675	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-3.949	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
-4.061	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
-5.629	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-6.218	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-7.944	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-8.043	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-10.679	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-10.835	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
-11.249	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-12.545	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-12.619	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-16.736	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-19.404	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-22.321	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-31.515	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
-36.971	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-39.945	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
-44.657	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-50.868	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-79.211	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-91.736	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-93.433	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-111.940	Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?	Binary
-125.101	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-127.461	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
-151.116	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous

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