| 99.442 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 98.466 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.441 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.316 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.029 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 98.029 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 98.008 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 98.008 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 98.008 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 98.008 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 98.008 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 97.460 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 96.465 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.080 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 95.900 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 95.786 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 95.544 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 94.648 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 94.441 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 94.325 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 93.966 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.246 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 92.611 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.841 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.825 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 90.824 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 90.621 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 90.554 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 90.484 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 90.409 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 90.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 90.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 90.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 90.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 90.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 90.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 90.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 90.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 90.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 90.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 90.366 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 90.365 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 90.257 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.972 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 89.613 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 89.331 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 89.331 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 89.331 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 89.331 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 89.331 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 89.324 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 88.224 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 88.183 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 88.183 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 87.851 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 87.334 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 87.199 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 87.187 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 86.853 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 86.804 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 86.793 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 85.436 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 85.436 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 85.436 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 84.005 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 83.923 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 83.500 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 82.947 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 82.840 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 82.653 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 82.502 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 81.934 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 81.846 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 81.382 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.924 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 80.774 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 80.516 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 79.741 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 78.685 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 78.685 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 78.685 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 78.685 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 78.685 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 78.113 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| 78.113 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 78.113 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 78.113 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 77.162 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 77.120 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 77.092 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 76.493 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 76.319 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 75.510 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 75.438 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 74.694 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 74.616 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 73.732 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 73.499 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 73.316 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 71.608 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 70.549 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 69.215 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 68.938 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 68.827 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 68.800 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 68.770 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 68.743 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 68.693 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 67.871 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 67.577 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 66.881 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 66.881 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 66.881 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 66.052 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 65.923 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 65.511 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 64.890 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 64.489 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 62.115 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 62.002 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 61.045 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 61.045 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 60.894 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 60.697 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 59.867 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 59.535 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 59.438 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 58.640 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 58.004 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 57.378 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 57.338 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 57.191 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 57.071 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 56.865 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 56.564 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 56.186 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 56.092 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 55.832 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 55.790 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 55.359 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 54.631 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 53.466 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 52.564 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 51.591 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 51.207 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 51.092 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 51.013 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.768 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 50.418 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 49.240 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 49.240 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 49.051 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 47.179 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 46.724 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 45.857 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 45.609 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 45.591 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 45.529 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 43.884 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 43.381 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 43.381 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 43.381 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 43.375 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 43.170 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 43.170 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 43.170 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 43.170 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 43.142 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 43.100 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 42.369 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 42.147 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 42.147 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 41.820 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 41.714 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 40.502 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 39.832 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 39.188 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 37.853 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 37.572 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 37.510 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 36.059 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 34.890 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 34.839 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 34.504 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 34.062 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 33.719 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 33.682 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 33.054 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 32.990 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 32.953 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 32.627 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 32.377 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 31.943 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 30.516 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 30.497 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 30.376 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 30.163 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.653 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.606 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 29.365 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 29.139 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 28.949 | Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections? | Binary |
| 28.505 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 28.299 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 28.283 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 28.119 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 27.824 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 27.092 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 25.833 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 24.735 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 24.270 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 24.032 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 22.557 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| 22.454 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 22.308 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 22.090 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 22.012 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 22.005 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 21.584 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 21.533 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 21.533 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 21.532 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| 21.381 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 21.056 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 21.050 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 20.864 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 20.824 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 20.818 | How many level 2 or greater public charging stations will be available for light vehicles in the United States at the beginning of the listed year? (2025) | Continuous |
| 20.652 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 20.351 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 20.121 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 19.081 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 18.780 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 18.720 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 18.444 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 18.444 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 18.417 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 18.141 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 18.131 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 17.979 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 17.938 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 17.912 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.748 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 17.515 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 16.566 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 15.939 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 15.783 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 15.557 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 15.240 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 14.860 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 14.843 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 14.481 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 14.113 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 13.960 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 13.783 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| 13.490 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 13.489 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 13.323 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.592 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.590 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.884 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 11.769 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.439 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 11.276 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.976 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 10.871 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 10.869 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 10.808 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 9.770 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 9.607 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 9.581 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024) | Continuous |
| 9.382 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 9.085 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 9.049 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 8.589 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| 7.806 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
| 7.798 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 7.770 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 7.770 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 7.770 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 7.770 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 7.770 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 7.770 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 7.770 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 7.770 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 7.770 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 7.770 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 7.746 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 7.680 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 7.548 | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| 6.413 | Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025? | Binary |
| 5.735 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.490 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 5.298 | Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 5.204 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 5.109 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 5.084 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.070 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 5.070 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.035 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 4.461 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.936 | Will Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili experience a significant leadership disruption before the next scheduled election? | Binary |
| 2.721 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 2.512 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.509 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.347 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| 2.228 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 1.862 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 1.842 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | Continuous |
| 1.736 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 1.705 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 1.585 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 1.556 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 1.279 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 1.095 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| 1.095 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 0.824 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 0.761 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.754 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 0.712 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 0.627 | Will an additional state join NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.516 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 0.313 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 0.273 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.202 | Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.094 | Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -0.892 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -2.864 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -5.592 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -8.154 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| -8.365 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| -8.370 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -8.437 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -10.983 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -13.190 | Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election? | Binary |
| -15.282 | Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| -20.824 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -23.197 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -25.442 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -49.185 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -63.511 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -63.531 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -71.617 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -75.353 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -145.136 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -175.924 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -193.642 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -221.051 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -429.850 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |