Zaldath

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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22.34k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
208.678	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
168.659	How many days will the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in 2023?	Continuous
163.667	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
149.836	How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
134.508	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
129.593	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
122.148	How many mpox cases will Virginia report in the second quarter of 2023?	Continuous
120.506	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 15)	Continuous
120.019	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
115.382	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
115.317	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 1)	Continuous
112.911	Which week in late 2023 will have the highest percent of medical visits for Influenza-like Illness in Virginia?	Continuous
112.375	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
111.605	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 17)	Continuous
111.087	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (July 29)	Continuous
106.946	What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?	Continuous
101.351	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2023)	Continuous
99.915	When will bivalent booster uptake in Virginia's 65+ population exceed 50%?	Continuous
99.818	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
99.423	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
99.285	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
99.224	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
98.675	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
98.675	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
98.564	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
98.416	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
98.412	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
98.313	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
98.267	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
98.267	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
98.187	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
98.187	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
98.187	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
98.187	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
98.187	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
98.187	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
98.137	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
98.042	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
98.028	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
97.808	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
97.771	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
97.687	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
97.594	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
97.564	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
97.553	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
97.241	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
97.137	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
97.061	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
96.745	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
96.745	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
96.677	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
96.389	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
95.956	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
95.716	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
95.664	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
95.034	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
94.829	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
94.372	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.365	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
94.332	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Green)	Continuous
94.246	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 6)	Continuous
94.170	Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?	Binary
94.109	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
94.068	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
93.359	Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?	Binary
93.244	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
93.159	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
93.007	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
92.841	What will the the total value of property damage (in US dollars) caused by tornados be in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
92.805	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
92.792	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
92.742	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
92.296	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
92.073	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
92.014	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
91.991	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
91.780	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
91.560	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
91.553	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
91.546	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
90.643	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
90.174	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
90.067	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (December 2023)	Continuous
89.835	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
89.303	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
89.296	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
88.644	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
88.491	Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?	Binary
88.114	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
87.937	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
87.372	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
87.247	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0)	Binary
87.247	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (0.5)	Binary
86.396	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
86.080	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
85.528	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
85.442	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
85.263	Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?	Binary
84.890	Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?	Binary
84.515	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
84.388	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
84.354	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
84.235	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
83.908	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
83.783	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
83.441	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
83.320	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
83.159	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
82.961	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
82.652	What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
82.588	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
82.199	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (National)	Continuous
82.173	Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?	Binary
81.674	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
81.671	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
81.670	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
81.670	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (2)	Binary
80.785	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
80.785	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
80.637	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
79.979	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (ACT)	Continuous
79.903	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (0)	Binary
79.248	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
78.651	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
78.642	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
78.345	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
77.990	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
77.971	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
77.816	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (April 22)	Continuous
77.719	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
76.929	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
76.738	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (3)	Binary
76.737	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (4)	Binary
76.410	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (June 3)	Continuous
75.907	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
74.889	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
74.398	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
73.677	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
72.730	Will "Epidemiologists" be included on Virginia's next High Demand Occupation List?	Binary
71.960	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
71.700	How many tornado segments will be reported in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
71.491	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
71.045	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
70.592	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
70.356	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
69.213	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
69.121	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
69.093	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
69.089	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
69.081	How many new forecasters will be in the top 20 of the Beginner Tournament at the end of the tournament?	Continuous
67.776	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
67.305	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
67.279	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
67.252	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
67.139	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
66.597	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
66.536	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
66.468	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
66.397	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
66.019	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
65.787	Will the main finding of study 1 from “Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being” in PNAS replicate?	Binary
64.728	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
64.669	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (May 20)	Continuous
64.620	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
63.401	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
63.351	How many refugee arrivals will Virginia have in US fiscal year 2023?	Continuous
63.108	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
63.100	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
63.030	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
62.867	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
62.753	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
62.258	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
62.258	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
62.009	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
61.598	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
61.436	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
60.579	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Te Pāti Māori)	Continuous
60.205	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Denmark)	Binary
59.969	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Nigeria)	Binary
59.946	Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?	Binary
59.818	How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (June 2023)	Continuous
58.671	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
58.659	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
58.506	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
58.460	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
58.445	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
57.454	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
57.154	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
56.619	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
56.495	How many new businesses will be formed in the US in 2023?	Continuous
56.286	Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?	Binary
56.231	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Africa)	Binary
56.084	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
56.033	What percentage of the vote will Abdel Fattah El-Sisi win in the first round of the 2023 Egyptian Presidential election?	Continuous
55.856	What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (December 30, 2023)	Continuous
55.627	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
55.425	What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
55.230	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
54.536	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
53.923	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
53.792	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Switzerland)	Binary
53.743	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
53.694	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
53.455	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
53.359	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
53.191	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Norway)	Binary
52.815	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
52.729	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1)	Binary
52.356	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
52.299	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
51.592	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
51.478	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
50.731	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
50.589	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
50.229	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
50.168	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
49.483	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
49.482	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
49.421	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
49.421	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
49.421	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
49.421	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
49.421	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
49.024	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
49.000	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
48.913	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
48.836	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
48.784	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
48.662	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
48.475	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5)	Binary
48.475	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (6)	Binary
48.410	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
48.364	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
48.159	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (South Korea)	Binary
47.961	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
47.951	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
47.856	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
47.760	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
47.315	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (All Other Teams Not Listed)	Binary
47.162	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
46.962	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
46.896	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
46.835	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
46.679	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
46.648	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
46.401	What will be the final value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2023?	Continuous
45.752	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
45.740	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (1)	Binary
45.736	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (1.5)	Binary
45.701	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
45.652	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
45.631	Will the US employment-population ratio fall below the COVID-19 low (51.3%) in any month in the following years, due to AI or otherwise? (2023)	Binary
45.591	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Italy)	Binary
45.589	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
45.354	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Argentina)	Binary
45.287	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
45.133	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
43.943	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
43.940	Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?	Binary
43.665	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
43.467	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
43.379	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
43.227	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
43.086	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
42.938	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
42.896	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
42.778	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Haiti)	Binary
42.778	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (China)	Binary
42.608	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Brazil)	Binary
42.166	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Portugal)	Binary
42.148	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
42.134	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
42.134	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
42.134	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
42.134	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
42.134	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
42.134	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
42.134	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
42.133	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
42.133	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
42.133	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
42.133	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
42.133	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
42.133	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
42.133	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
42.133	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
42.133	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
42.133	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
41.886	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
41.880	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
41.645	How many workers will go on strike as part of major work stoppages in the US in 2023?	Continuous
41.357	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
41.303	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Podemos)	Binary
41.240	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
41.234	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
41.124	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Illinois for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
41.098	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
41.034	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
40.533	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
40.392	What place will Canada get in the 2023 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
40.267	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
40.252	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
39.013	How many seats will the Nation Alliance be reported to win in the 2023 Turkish parliamentary election?	Continuous
38.948	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Missouri for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
38.907	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (Vox)	Binary
38.688	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
38.637	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Canada)	Binary
37.824	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
37.791	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
37.767	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
37.271	How many goals will be scored in total across all four Champions League semifinal games in the 2022/23 season?	Continuous
37.032	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Massachusetts for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
36.859	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
36.622	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
36.475	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
36.428	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Philippines)	Binary
36.421	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
36.364	Fed raises interest rates in June 2023? (No) → S&P 500 closing value on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
36.259	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
35.674	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (New Zealand)	Binary
35.372	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Florida Panthers)	Binary
35.168	Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
35.124	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
35.067	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
34.801	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Colorado for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
34.487	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
34.261	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Washington for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
34.049	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
33.925	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
33.845	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
33.836	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
33.824	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Panama)	Binary
33.127	How many individuals will the New York City Department of Homeless Services report as being "in shelter" on May 22nd, 2023?	Continuous
32.684	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Dallas Stars)	Binary
32.370	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
32.021	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
31.985	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
31.898	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
30.948	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
30.625	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
30.492	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these periods? (December 9, 2023)	Continuous
30.330	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
30.247	How many countries will be less happy in 2022 as compared to 2019 according to the World Happiness Report?	Continuous
29.754	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
29.676	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
29.608	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)	Binary
29.373	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
29.251	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
28.986	What will be the total finishing time for the 2023 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
28.837	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Germany)	Binary
28.664	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
28.365	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Republic of Ireland)	Binary
28.018	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
27.857	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Vietnam)	Binary
27.765	What will the annual real GDP growth rate be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
26.682	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
26.680	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (May 6)	Continuous
26.654	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
26.298	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
26.272	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
26.268	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
25.659	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
25.512	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
25.127	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
25.084	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
24.647	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Costa Rica)	Binary
24.647	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Zambia)	Binary
24.530	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
24.410	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Florida for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
24.394	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Texas for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
24.340	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
22.787	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
22.644	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
22.163	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
22.121	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
21.617	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (All other teams)	Binary
21.301	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
21.137	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Minnesota Twins)	Binary
20.843	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in New York for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
20.245	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)	Binary
19.110	When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?	Continuous
18.950	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Carolina Hurricanes)	Binary
18.739	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Boston Celtics)	Binary
18.239	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 22)	Continuous
17.988	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
17.643	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
17.543	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Golden State Warriors)	Binary
17.277	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (New Jersey Devils)	Binary
16.932	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
16.487	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
15.762	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 16, 2023)	Continuous
15.232	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
14.889	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
14.703	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Baltimore Orioles)	Binary
14.593	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Los Angeles Dodgers)	Binary
14.502	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
14.447	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in California for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
14.196	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
14.027	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
13.989	How many moves will be played in the first four rounds of the Ding - Nepo FIDE World Chess Championship 2023?	Continuous
13.924	Debt Limit Increased or Suspended in 2023? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before 2024?	Binary
13.802	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
13.561	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)	Binary
13.384	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
13.240	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Phoenix Suns)	Binary
12.956	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (2)	Binary
12.955	How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate? (2)	Binary
12.752	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Arizona for these weeks? (May 20)	Continuous
12.347	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
12.292	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
12.186	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
12.186	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
12.139	How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?	Continuous
12.106	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in Pennsylvania for these weeks? (April 8)	Continuous
11.774	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Toronto Maple Leafs)	Binary
11.515	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
11.265	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.201	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
11.200	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Edmonton Oilers)	Binary
11.111	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
11.083	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
11.008	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 12)	Continuous
10.652	What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below? (March 25)	Continuous
10.595	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
10.271	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
9.984	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
9.450	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
9.133	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
9.095	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
9.049	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
8.760	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
8.738	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
8.553	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
8.466	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
8.107	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
7.881	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
7.766	When will the procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. be managed by the commercial marketplace?	Continuous
7.360	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Atlanta Braves)	Binary
7.307	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
7.080	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
6.545	Will the OpenAI Tour 2023 plan to visit more than one African destination as of April 10th?	Binary
6.452	When will the U.S. CDC stop requiring line-level (patient-level) COVID-19 case data from states?	Continuous
6.446	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
6.414	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.320	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
5.992	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
5.443	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
5.423	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
5.316	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
5.184	How many NCAA Division I schools will have both their men’s and women’s basketball teams make the 2023 NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament?	Continuous
5.013	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
4.210	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
4.074	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Dec. 30, 2023)	Continuous
3.998	In which epidemiological week will the overall national RSV hospitalization rate per 100,000 first equal or exceed 1.0?	Continuous
3.572	What percentage of wastewater treatment plants in Virginia will be in the higher or highest percentile groups for SARS-CoV-2 for the week ending November 26, 2023?	Continuous
3.489	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Sacramento Kings)	Binary
3.334	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)	Binary
3.242	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (People's Party (PP))	Binary
2.832	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Miami Marlins)	Binary
2.671	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
2.597	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Milwaukee Brewers)	Binary
2.470	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Toronto Blue Jays)	Binary
2.228	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Colorado Avalanche)	Binary
2.220	When will The One Ring be found?	Continuous
2.209	Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?	Binary
2.129	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Tampa Bay Rays)	Binary
2.008	Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?	Binary
1.760	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
1.548	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
1.327	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.125	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Boston Bruins)	Binary
1.080	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (LA Kings)	Binary
1.035	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Memphis Grizzlies)	Binary
0.935	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Tampa Bay Lightning)	Binary
0.800	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Spanish Congress of Deputies election? (PSOE)	Binary
0.325	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
-0.221	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.787	Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?	Binary
-1.626	When will the WHO COVID-19 PHEIC expire?	Continuous
-1.652	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-2.006	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-4.046	How many days will any region in Virginia experience coastal flood, high wind, hurricane, or tropical storm in 2023?	Continuous
-4.629	What will be the total burned area (in hectares) of the Canadian wildfires on June 14, 2023?	Continuous
-5.027	How many claims from Study 4 of the JPSP paper, "Collective transcendence beliefs shape the sacredness of objects: The case of art" will replicate?	Continuous
-5.951	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-6.948	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-8.938	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-9.170	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
-9.266	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
-11.667	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-13.445	Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Denver Nuggets)	Binary
-14.741	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-15.159	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-15.200	Will Israel still be rated "Free" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?	Binary
-15.298	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-15.630	Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?	Binary
-15.739	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-15.869	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-16.282	Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season?	Continuous
-18.018	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-23.589	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-25.659	When will the U.S. CDC recommend an additional updated COVID-19 vaccine booster dose for adults?	Continuous
-31.281	How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-32.090	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-33.773	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-35.946	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-40.774	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-41.293	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-43.636	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-45.649	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-45.775	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-48.347	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-48.485	How many of the three claims from study 4 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) will replicate? (3)	Binary
-50.576	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-59.084	Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (Vegas Golden Knights)	Binary
-60.033	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-64.878	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-66.444	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-70.515	Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? (Yes) → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?	Binary
-76.240	How many coronation medals will be awarded as part of King Charles III coronation?	Continuous
-76.398	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-77.981	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-80.981	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-81.533	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-82.868	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (7)	Binary
-93.149	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
-98.173	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-115.306	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
-119.721	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-166.408	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-171.178	What will the total number of new COVID-19 associated hospital admissions in Virginia for the weeks shown below (starting on Sunday and ending on Saturday)? (Aug 26)	Continuous
-210.397	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Zaldath