| 194.083 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 187.587 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 112.186 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Florida) | Continuous |
| 112.113 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 110.519 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 109.140 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Texas) | Continuous |
| 108.947 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 107.932 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (California) | Continuous |
| 107.899 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 107.774 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Washington) | Continuous |
| 106.551 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 105.999 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Massachusetts) | Continuous |
| 105.026 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 105.013 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 101.141 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 99.578 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 99.351 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 98.961 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 98.636 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 98.485 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 98.480 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 98.473 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.425 | Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.400 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.347 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 98.342 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.340 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.318 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 98.318 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 98.306 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.298 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 98.251 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 98.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.248 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 98.228 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 98.097 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 98.027 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 98.027 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 98.027 | Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 98.026 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 98.026 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 97.851 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 97.810 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 97.797 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 97.797 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 97.797 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.768 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 97.768 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 97.502 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.464 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 97.459 | LLM passes ARA before 2025? (No) → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.430 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.155 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.027 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.688 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 96.688 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 96.688 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 96.678 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 96.678 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Borussia Dortmund) | Binary |
| 96.604 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 96.374 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.352 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 96.305 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 96.301 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 96.235 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 96.105 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 95.913 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (New York) | Continuous |
| 95.661 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 95.339 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 95.326 | Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.226 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 95.177 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.119 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 94.953 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.924 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 94.854 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 94.699 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 94.453 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 94.322 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 94.133 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft) | Binary |
| 93.869 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 93.557 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Dallas Mavericks) | Binary |
| 93.441 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 93.402 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.025 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 92.829 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 92.763 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 92.647 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 92.558 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 92.546 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.528 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Minnesota Lynx) | Binary |
| 92.382 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 92.236 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.228 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 92.226 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.179 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates? (March 15, 2024) | Binary |
| 92.108 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 92.108 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 92.108 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 91.751 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 91.673 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 91.673 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 91.673 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 91.672 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 91.672 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 91.672 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 91.672 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 91.672 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 91.672 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 91.672 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 91.672 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 91.576 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 91.548 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 91.526 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Connecticut Sun) | Binary |
| 91.211 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.086 | When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally? | Continuous |
| 90.910 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 90.850 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 90.850 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 90.850 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 90.850 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 90.539 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 90.539 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 90.539 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 90.539 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 90.539 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 90.532 | Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.475 | Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board) | Binary |
| 90.456 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 90.445 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 90.079 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 89.878 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.492 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 89.053 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 88.671 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 88.483 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.442 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 88.355 | What will the unemployment rate be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 88.049 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 88.018 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 87.848 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 87.848 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 87.848 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 87.780 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 87.753 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Indiana Fever) | Binary |
| 87.753 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Phoenix Mercury) | Binary |
| 87.460 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Atlanta Dream) | Binary |
| 87.460 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Seattle Storm) | Binary |
| 87.241 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 86.939 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 86.886 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 86.736 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Los Angeles Sparks) | Binary |
| 86.736 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Washington Mystics) | Binary |
| 86.736 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Chicago Sky) | Binary |
| 86.308 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 86.138 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 86.080 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Minnesota Timberwolves) | Binary |
| 85.815 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 85.549 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 85.430 | How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"? | Continuous |
| 85.384 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 85.383 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 85.231 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Indiana Pacers) | Binary |
| 85.193 | Which country will lead the medal table at the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics? | Multiple Choice |
| 85.193 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 85.065 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.816 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 84.758 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (GUE-NGL) | Binary |
| 84.751 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Egypt-Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 84.736 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ID) | Binary |
| 84.642 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 84.624 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.600 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Uruguay-Argentina-Chile-Paraguay) | Binary |
| 84.355 | Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025? | Binary |
| 83.952 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 83.847 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 83.804 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 83.617 | What percent of US adults will report having received an updated COVID booster vaccine for the 2023-2024 season on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 83.527 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 82.784 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 82.711 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 82.463 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 82.463 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 82.375 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 82.366 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 82.166 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (COVID-19) | Continuous |
| 81.987 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New York Knicks) | Binary |
| 81.667 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Oklahoma City Thunder) | Binary |
| 81.098 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Denver Nuggets) | Binary |
| 80.707 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 80.475 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 80.457 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Cleveland Cavaliers) | Binary |
| 79.641 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Greens–EFA) | Binary |
| 79.641 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (ECR) | Binary |
| 79.612 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (Renew) | Binary |
| 79.485 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 79.430 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Dallas Wings) | Binary |
| 78.564 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 78.453 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 77.884 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 77.491 | Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024? (Yes) → Twitter Public Company in May 2024? | Binary |
| 77.476 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 76.742 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 76.731 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 76.407 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Orlando Magic) | Binary |
| 75.889 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 75.350 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Philadelphia 76ers) | Binary |
| 75.107 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 74.923 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Miami Heat) | Binary |
| 74.151 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (New Orleans Pelicans) | Binary |
| 73.288 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Paris Saint-Germain) | Binary |
| 72.662 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 72.464 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 72.010 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 71.957 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 71.957 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 71.908 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 71.718 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 71.708 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 71.413 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 71.183 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Clippers) | Binary |
| 71.099 | Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025? | Binary |
| 71.027 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 70.898 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Athletico Madrid) | Binary |
| 70.893 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Barcelona) | Binary |
| 70.606 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 70.548 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 70.546 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 70.500 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 70.494 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 70.209 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Sacremento Kings) | Binary |
| 70.167 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Chicago Bulls) | Binary |
| 69.823 | Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025? | Binary |
| 69.741 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (RSV) | Continuous |
| 69.697 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Los Angeles Lakers) | Binary |
| 69.681 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 69.506 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 69.422 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Atlanta Hawks) | Binary |
| 69.326 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 69.286 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 68.896 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 68.699 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 68.084 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 68.053 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 67.866 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.778 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 67.712 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 67.133 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 67.038 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 66.432 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (Peak) | Continuous |
| 65.601 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Brooklyn Nets) | Binary |
| 65.600 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Houston Rockets) | Binary |
| 64.866 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Golden State Warriors) | Binary |
| 64.839 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 64.702 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 64.328 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 64.306 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 64.126 | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 April 1) | Binary |
| 64.088 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 63.963 | When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| 63.917 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 62.544 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 62.041 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 61.823 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 61.637 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 61.398 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 61.103 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Toronto Raptors) | Binary |
| 61.103 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Utah Jazz) | Binary |
| 60.937 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 60.420 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 59.707 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (PSV) | Binary |
| 59.520 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Charlotte Hornets) | Binary |
| 59.148 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Porto) | Binary |
| 58.993 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 58.940 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 58.862 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 58.711 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Memphis Grizzlies) | Binary |
| 58.362 | Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025? | Binary |
| 58.178 | Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024? | Binary |
| 57.780 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 57.715 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 57.692 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 57.051 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Portland Trail Blazers) | Binary |
| 56.852 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Copenhagen) | Binary |
| 56.702 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 56.389 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Leipzig) | Binary |
| 56.133 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Inter Milan) | Binary |
| 55.926 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Sociedad) | Binary |
| 55.926 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lazio) | Binary |
| 55.739 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.577 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Napoli) | Binary |
| 55.577 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 54.198 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Washington Wizards) | Binary |
| 53.901 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Detroit Pistons) | Binary |
| 53.830 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 53.795 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 53.659 | What will be India's rating in the Freedom In the World Report for the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 53.454 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 53.442 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 53.422 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (San Antonio Spurs) | Binary |
| 53.097 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 52.228 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Arsenal) | Binary |
| 52.188 | What percent of children under 8 months of age will surveyed parents report having received nirsevimab on the following dates? (March 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 51.930 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 51.806 | Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 51.456 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 51.331 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (GitHub Copilot, optional) | Binary |
| 51.187 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 51.026 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 50.830 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Bayern Munich) | Binary |
| 50.716 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Phoenix Suns) | Binary |
| 50.344 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 50.344 | Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 49.547 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 48.830 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.680 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 48.480 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 48.389 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 48.167 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 48.158 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 48.135 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 48.116 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 48.101 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 47.847 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Washington for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 47.784 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 47.593 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 47.366 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 46.990 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 46.831 | Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025? | Binary |
| 46.518 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 46.299 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Google Deep Mind) | Binary |
| 45.577 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 44.547 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 44.136 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | Binary |
| 44.103 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 43.329 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 43.329 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 43.264 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 43.229 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 43.050 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 43.050 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 43.017 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 43.005 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 42.964 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 42.005 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 41.936 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 41.796 | What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 41.640 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 41.451 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 41.109 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 40.798 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 40.744 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 40.284 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 40.014 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 39.528 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.349 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 39.206 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 39.062 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 38.864 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 38.596 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 37.751 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 37.551 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 37.509 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 37.441 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 36.379 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 35.993 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 34.916 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 34.728 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 34.681 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 34.297 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Greece-Saudi Arabia) | Binary |
| 33.761 | Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025? | Binary |
| 33.201 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 32.986 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Milwaukee Bucks) | Binary |
| 32.395 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 32.085 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 31.616 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
California for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 31.156 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 31.130 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Colorado for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 31.059 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 30.998 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 30.979 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 30.517 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, optional) | Binary |
| 30.517 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, optional) | Binary |
| 30.322 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 29.981 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | Continuous |
| 29.924 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 29.581 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 29.291 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 28.805 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 28.711 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| 28.478 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 28.435 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (September 2024) | Continuous |
| 28.402 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 27.914 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.846 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 27.605 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.504 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 27.287 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (EPP) | Binary |
| 27.287 | Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections? (S&D) | Binary |
| 25.513 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 25.504 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 25.486 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 24.620 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 23.763 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 23.741 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 23.557 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 23.318 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Ukraine-Morocco) | Binary |
| 23.087 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 22.641 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 22.499 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 22.497 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 21.689 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 21.092 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 20.940 | Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025? | Binary |
| 20.819 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 20.260 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester City) | Binary |
| 20.258 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 19.905 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 19.719 | How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates? (March 2024) | Continuous |
| 19.188 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024) | Continuous |
| 19.104 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 18.500 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| 18.456 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 18.277 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 18.186 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 18.164 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 18.060 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
| 17.896 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.714 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 17.585 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Shakhtar Donetsk) | Binary |
| 17.585 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Newcastle United) | Binary |
| 17.539 | When will the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Interagency Technical Working Group on Race and Ethnicity Standards complete revisions to Statistical Policy Directive No. 15 (SPD 15)? | Continuous |
| 17.360 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 17.123 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Manchester United) | Binary |
| 17.123 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Galatasaray) | Binary |
| 17.113 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Braga) | Binary |
| 16.943 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 16.523 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (AC Milan) | Binary |
| 15.951 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 15.496 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| 15.462 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 15.453 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 15.236 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| 15.193 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 14.885 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 14.885 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 14.749 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 14.411 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| 14.105 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 13.965 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 13.701 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 13.636 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 13.448 | What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)? | Continuous |
| 12.911 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 12.806 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 12.278 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| 11.715 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 11.645 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 11.597 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 11.416 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.161 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Sevilla) | Binary |
| 11.161 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Lens) | Binary |
| 11.116 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 10.987 | Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.846 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 10.717 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 10.699 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Crvena Zvezda) | Binary |
| 10.699 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Feyenoord) | Binary |
| 10.699 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Celtic) | Binary |
| 10.548 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.238 | UN Troops In Gaza (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 9.841 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Combined) | Continuous |
| 9.783 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 9.420 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 9.326 | Will Apple allow side-loading or other app stores on their iPhones before 2026? (European Union) | Binary |
| 8.965 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 8.956 | What will be Turkey's inflation rate on the following dates? (February 2024) | Continuous |
| 8.566 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 8.298 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 8.298 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 8.254 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 8.249 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 8.189 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 8.058 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 8.058 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.977 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 7.805 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 7.626 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| 7.512 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 7.079 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | Binary |
| 6.902 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 6.844 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| 6.842 | When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy? | Continuous |
| 6.795 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 6.768 | Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.573 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 6.321 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 6.308 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Texas for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 6.184 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.127 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 5.985 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.899 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (Anthropic AI Claude, not optional) | Binary |
| 5.661 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 5.363 | Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025? | Binary |
| 5.318 | How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025? | Continuous |
| 5.285 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 5.242 | When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective? | Continuous |
| 5.234 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| 5.215 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 5.023 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Futbol Club Barcelona) | Binary |
| 5.023 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Internacional de Fútbol Miami) | Binary |
| 5.023 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.023 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Manchester City Football Club) | Binary |
| 5.023 | Which football club will Lionel Messi next join as a club player? (Club Atlético Newell's Old Boys) | Binary |
| 4.919 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 4.914 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Jan. 27, 2024) | Continuous |
| 4.728 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 4.587 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Feb. 10, 2024) | Continuous |
| 4.464 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance) | Continuous |
| 4.146 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 4.126 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP) | Continuous |
| 4.066 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 4.006 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 3.892 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 3.785 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 3.668 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin) | Continuous |
| 3.558 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru) | Continuous |
| 3.304 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 3.162 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP) | Continuous |
| 3.101 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Florida for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| 2.792 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| 2.548 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 2.373 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| 2.335 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 2.328 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| 1.959 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.603 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| 1.545 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis) | Continuous |
| 1.451 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
| 1.415 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.383 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (RB Salzburg) | Binary |
| 1.348 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Union Berlin) | Binary |
| 1.348 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Benfica) | Binary |
| 1.303 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| 1.042 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.950 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Antwerp) | Binary |
| 0.936 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.922 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Young Boys) | Binary |
| 0.889 | Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.742 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 0.693 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 0.680 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.582 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.507 | When will Oleksii Reznikov cease to hold the office of the Minister of Defence of Ukraine? | Continuous |
| 0.315 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 0.238 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 0.096 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 0.037 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.024 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| - | Will the Pandemic and All Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) be reauthorized for more than 4 years before April 1st, 2024, and December 31st, 2024? (2024 Dec 31) | Binary |
| - | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| - | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Meta) | Binary |
| - | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Inflection) | Binary |
| -0.080 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -0.178 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| -6.794 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -7.578 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -8.327 | Which of the listed LLMs will integrate a version of output watermarking before January 1, 2025? (OpenAI GPT-4, not optional) | Binary |
| -9.450 | How many weeks will influenza-like illness (ILI) activity levels be at "high" or above in at least five states during the 2023-2024 season? | Continuous |
| -10.393 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| -10.656 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| -11.177 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| -11.523 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Illinois for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -11.864 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| -11.993 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -13.880 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -14.660 | Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| -15.405 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Pennsylvania for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -18.877 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -20.135 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -22.909 | What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election? | Continuous |
| -27.230 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -27.267 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
New York for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -27.519 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -28.040 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -31.009 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| -31.581 | Which team will win the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League? (Real Madrid) | Binary |
| -31.585 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| -31.607 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (Las Vegas Aces) | Binary |
| -31.864 | How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo? | Continuous |
| -35.367 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -41.930 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Massachusetts for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -46.504 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -48.830 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -49.061 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations in
Missouri for these periods? (March 2, 2024) | Continuous |
| -49.823 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| -56.965 | Which team will win the 2024 NBA Finals? (Boston Celtics) | Binary |
| -58.330 | Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| -61.189 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -61.516 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -61.686 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -62.178 | What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2023-2024 season? (Flu) | Continuous |
| -62.248 | Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| -64.728 | When will the maximum weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations occur in the following states? (Missouri) | Continuous |
| -73.639 | Which team will win the 2024 WNBA Finals? (New York Liberty) | Binary |
| -74.996 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -79.403 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| -84.131 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -87.660 | Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025? | Binary |
| -88.409 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -101.748 | How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -102.560 | Which bid will be selected to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup? (Spain-Portugal-Morocco) | Binary |
| -109.538 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -110.647 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -165.934 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -196.894 | What will be the US : China ratio for private investment in AI in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -230.162 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -250.698 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -429.954 | Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025? (OpenAI) | Binary |