edoardo.baratelli

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5.832k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
120.274	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
98.382	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
98.139	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
97.565	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
97.473	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
97.458	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
96.779	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
96.037	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
95.974	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
95.861	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
95.476	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
95.198	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
94.964	Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?	Binary
94.846	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.653	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
94.505	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
94.228	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.045	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
93.534	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
93.292	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
92.409	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
92.131	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
91.847	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
90.793	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
90.553	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
90.001	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
89.294	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
88.059	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
87.621	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
85.009	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
84.754	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
83.249	Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?	Binary
83.150	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
83.122	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
82.301	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
82.019	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
81.872	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
81.870	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
81.696	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
79.880	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
79.718	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
78.771	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
78.688	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
78.573	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
75.439	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
75.054	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
74.770	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
74.293	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
74.197	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
71.472	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
69.206	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
65.649	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
63.734	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
62.826	Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?	Binary
61.732	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
60.599	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
58.737	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
57.415	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
55.153	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
55.051	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
54.202	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
53.881	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
53.374	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
52.548	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
52.231	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
50.794	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
49.811	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
49.254	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
47.879	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
47.727	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
47.725	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
44.605	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
43.586	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
42.781	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
41.815	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
41.422	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
41.165	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
39.476	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
38.720	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
37.737	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
37.737	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
37.737	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
34.650	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
32.910	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
31.996	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
31.995	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
31.413	Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?	Binary
30.673	Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2024)	Binary
30.273	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
28.105	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
27.366	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
26.933	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
26.933	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
26.933	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
26.933	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
26.933	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
26.933	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
26.933	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
26.776	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
26.042	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
25.859	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
25.279	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
25.122	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
23.175	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
23.139	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
22.683	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
22.536	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
20.922	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
20.807	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
20.798	Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?	Binary
19.716	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
19.448	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
18.995	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
16.046	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
13.131	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
11.335	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
11.023	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
10.932	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
10.281	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
9.993	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
9.553	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
9.207	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
7.953	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
5.083	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
5.033	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
4.891	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
4.879	Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?	Binary
3.911	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.796	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.750	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
1.114	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
1.051	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.915	Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?	Binary
0.774	Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?	Binary
0.617	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-2.682	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-11.979	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
-17.195	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
-41.458	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-47.141	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-50.025	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
-79.983	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-89.270	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-93.864	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-111.595	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
-122.601	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
-166.767	Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?	Binary
-173.776	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-206.503	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-293.272	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

edoardo.baratelli

User

edoardo.baratelli