| 112.312 | How many active United Nations peacekeeping missions will there be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 98.508 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 98.406 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.321 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.100 | Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.099 | Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.099 | Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.090 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 98.090 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 98.056 | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Binary |
| 97.889 | Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.752 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 94.391 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.236 | Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.586 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.277 | Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023? | Binary |
| 91.176 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 90.658 | Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections? | Binary |
| 90.410 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 87.190 | Will Azerbaijan invade Armenia before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 86.805 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.526 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 84.790 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.404 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 84.404 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 83.727 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 83.053 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 83.053 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 82.816 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 77.171 | What will be the global mortality rate (in percent) for children under the age of 5 in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 76.196 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 74.405 | How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024? | Continuous |
| 73.405 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 71.661 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 67.490 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 66.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 66.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 66.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 66.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 66.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 66.582 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 66.551 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 66.517 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 65.994 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| 65.684 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 63.430 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 62.422 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 62.275 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 62.006 | What will the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth be in the G7 countries in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 61.662 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 61.662 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 61.662 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 61.434 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 60.525 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 59.499 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 57.419 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 56.322 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 55.032 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 53.857 | What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 52.406 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 51.726 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 51.726 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 51.726 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 51.275 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 50.554 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 50.420 | What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 49.306 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 48.315 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.986 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 47.558 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 47.407 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 45.282 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 43.804 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 43.523 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 43.154 | What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 41.857 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 40.986 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 40.915 | What percent of the world population will use the internet in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 40.199 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 39.999 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 37.724 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 37.724 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 37.724 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 37.724 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 37.724 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 37.724 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 37.724 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 37.724 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 34.807 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 34.806 | By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty? | Binary |
| 34.805 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 34.805 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 34.545 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 34.491 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 34.182 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 34.182 | By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 34.145 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 34.024 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 34.024 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 33.089 | By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 33.005 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 32.572 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 32.571 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 32.571 | Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 32.460 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 32.118 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 30.759 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 30.605 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 30.459 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 30.097 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 29.006 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 29.006 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 29.006 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 29.005 | Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 29.003 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 28.999 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 28.963 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 28.548 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| 27.318 | Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025? | Binary |
| 27.255 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 27.173 | Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 26.884 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.674 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 25.427 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 23.847 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 23.378 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 22.624 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 22.561 | How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 22.411 | Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 21.824 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 21.824 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 21.824 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 21.666 | What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 21.427 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 21.114 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 20.702 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 20.005 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 19.430 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 19.319 | Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023? | Binary |
| 18.754 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 16.086 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 13.686 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 12.377 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 12.358 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 9.876 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.414 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| 8.105 | What will be the global total fertility rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 5.187 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 2.910 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| 2.652 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 1.070 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 0.129 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| -0.028 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| -2.214 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| -4.340 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -4.778 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -8.359 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027? | Binary |
| -12.739 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| -23.409 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| -32.189 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| -32.226 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? | Binary |
| -36.512 | How many Japanese Air Force responses to Chinese military threats there will be by 2024? | Continuous |
| -37.417 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| -58.620 | How many Chinese institutions of higher education will get approved for an artificial intelligence undergraduate program in 2023? | Continuous |
| -60.711 | What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -73.534 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -73.665 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -76.741 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| -85.456 | What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -91.573 | What will China’s GDP be in 2023? | Continuous |
| -116.402 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| -126.303 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -147.051 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -172.828 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| -190.411 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -219.067 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |