Henry38

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

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5.499k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
145.211	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
97.402	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
97.261	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
96.376	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
95.503	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
95.503	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
94.822	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
94.462	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
94.182	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.026	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
93.444	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
92.577	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
90.599	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
90.322	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
89.916	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
88.776	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
86.582	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
86.581	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
86.371	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
85.866	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
84.487	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (2)	Binary
84.485	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (3)	Binary
84.485	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (4)	Binary
80.986	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
80.976	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (BBB)	Binary
80.976	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (D66)	Binary
80.976	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (CDA)	Binary
79.625	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
79.525	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
77.837	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
75.981	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
75.266	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
74.486	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
73.395	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
73.168	How many people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023?	Continuous
71.818	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
71.265	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
69.717	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
68.952	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
67.990	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
66.852	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
63.681	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
62.918	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
61.866	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5)	Binary
61.783	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
61.750	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
61.366	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
61.003	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
59.744	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
57.773	Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?	Binary
56.976	How many workers will go on strike as part of major work stoppages in the US in 2023?	Continuous
56.732	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
53.911	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
51.265	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
49.798	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
49.582	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Nov-2023)	Continuous
48.883	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
48.156	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
47.265	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
46.943	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
46.491	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Arizona Diamondbacks)	Binary
45.955	What percentage of Virginia adults will be vaccinated against influenza by the week ending December 30, 2023?	Continuous
45.174	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
45.035	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (England)	Binary
44.861	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (VVD)	Binary
44.762	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
44.242	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
42.366	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
42.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
42.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
42.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
42.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
42.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
42.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
42.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
42.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
42.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
42.222	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
41.915	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
41.861	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
41.485	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
41.235	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
40.960	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
40.960	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
39.886	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PvdA-GL)	Binary
39.656	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
39.569	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
39.286	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
39.272	What will be the highest daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit count in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
39.182	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
39.018	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
37.808	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
37.458	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
37.328	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
36.046	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
35.503	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
35.270	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
30.843	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
30.355	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
30.166	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
29.908	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
28.200	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
27.722	What will the Geopolitical Risk index be for 2023?	Continuous
27.150	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
27.127	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Philadelphia Phillies)	Binary
27.124	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
26.565	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
26.345	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.941	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
25.783	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
24.743	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
23.712	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Australia)	Binary
23.593	What will the most expensive AI training run be in the following years, in millions of USD? (2023)	Continuous
23.572	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (NSC)	Binary
23.428	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
22.715	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
22.170	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left)	Binary
22.170	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Polish Coalition)	Binary
22.170	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Confederation)	Binary
22.170	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Poland 2050)	Binary
22.170	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Agreement)	Binary
22.170	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Kukiz'15)	Binary
22.170	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Democratic Left)	Binary
21.993	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
21.674	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
20.267	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
20.257	What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2023)	Continuous
20.153	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
19.879	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Houston Astros)	Binary
19.314	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
19.301	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
19.179	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
18.285	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (United States)	Binary
17.579	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
16.640	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
16.351	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
16.018	What will be the total daily Heat Related Illness (HRI) visit counts in Virginia in 2023?	Continuous
15.974	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
15.681	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
15.414	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
15.254	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Civic Platform)	Binary
14.277	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.122	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Sweden)	Binary
13.756	Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?	Binary
13.657	Will a US spot Ethereum ETF be approved in 2023?	Binary
13.623	How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?	Continuous
13.187	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Colombia)	Binary
12.788	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
12.282	Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))	Binary
12.007	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Oct-2023)	Continuous
11.980	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
10.464	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Japan)	Binary
10.436	Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?	Binary
10.002	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
8.208	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
7.510	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (France)	Binary
7.247	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
5.137	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Christian Zurita)	Binary
5.035	Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?	Binary
5.027	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
4.925	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
4.878	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Bolívar Armijos)	Binary
4.878	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Xavier Hervas)	Binary
4.878	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Yaku Pérez Guartambel)	Binary
4.878	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Otto Sonnenholzner)	Binary
4.878	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Jan Topić)	Binary
4.175	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Netherlands)	Binary
3.620	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
3.364	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
2.803	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Morocco)	Binary
2.544	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Jamaica)	Binary
2.321	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
2.137	Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?	Binary
1.995	Will the 'Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression' Act pass in the US House of Representatives by January 3, 2024?	Binary
1.633	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
0.918	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
0.883	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
0.558	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.474	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
-	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Luisa González)	Binary
-	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (6)	Binary
-0.085	Who will win Ecuador’s 2023 presidential election? (Daniel Noboa Azín)	Binary
-0.834	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
-1.910	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
-2.484	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
-7.797	When will the UVA Biocomplexity Institute indicate at least 13 of Virginia's 35 health districts are in a "surge" trajectory?	Continuous
-11.379	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
-11.956	Which week in late 2023 will influenza intensity levels first be categorized as moderate in at least one of Virginia's regions in the 2023-24 flu season?	Continuous
-12.098	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
-13.792	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
-16.643	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-16.934	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-24.178	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
-24.610	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-33.584	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-34.360	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
-38.364	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
-40.278	Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup? (Spain)	Binary
-41.362	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
-42.457	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
-52.726	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
-67.254	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (7)	Binary
-96.675	Who will win the 2023 World Series? (Texas Rangers)	Binary
-151.114	How many claims from Study 4 of the JPSP paper, "Collective transcendence beliefs shape the sacredness of objects: The case of art" will replicate?	Continuous
-156.550	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
-191.485	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
-278.268	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-463.739	Which party will win the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary elections of 2023? (PVV)	Binary

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Henry38

User

Henry38