| 98.530 | Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024? | Binary |
| 98.430 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.289 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 98.191 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 97.720 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 97.564 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (OpenAI) | Binary |
| 97.564 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Google DeepMind) | Binary |
| 97.034 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 96.649 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 96.395 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.308 | India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election? (No) → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025? | Binary |
| 94.785 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 93.318 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 93.283 | Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025 (No) → Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025? | Binary |
| 93.243 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.394 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.820 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 91.820 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 91.820 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 90.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 90.620 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 90.162 | Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities? (Anthropic) | Binary |
| 89.439 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Terry Gou (Independent)) | Binary |
| 89.356 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 88.967 | Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025? | Binary |
| 88.340 | Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 87.805 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 86.486 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 84.795 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 84.551 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.086 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 84.086 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 81.771 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 81.339 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Pittsburgh Steelers) | Binary |
| 80.935 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Rams) | Binary |
| 80.561 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (June-24) | Continuous |
| 80.197 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cleveland Browns) | Binary |
| 79.705 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vishwanathan Anand) | Binary |
| 79.705 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Amin Tabatabaei) | Binary |
| 79.705 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hans Niemann) | Binary |
| 79.423 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 78.932 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 78.407 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Ko Wen-je (TPP)) | Binary |
| 77.593 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 77.279 | Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025? | Binary |
| 77.264 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Sam Sevian) | Binary |
| 77.036 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Hamas) | Binary |
| 76.631 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Richard Rapport) | Binary |
| 76.631 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Jan-Krzysztof Duda) | Binary |
| 76.631 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vincent Keymer) | Binary |
| 76.631 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nodirbek Abdusattorov) | Binary |
| 76.631 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nihal Sarin) | Binary |
| 76.627 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Palestinian Authority / Fatah) | Binary |
| 76.448 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Magnus Carlsen) | Binary |
| 76.199 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Atlanta Falcons) | Binary |
| 75.909 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 75.758 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Indianapolis Colts) | Binary |
| 75.579 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Levon Aronian) | Binary |
| 73.529 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Kansas City Chiefs) | Binary |
| 73.374 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Arjun Erigaisi) | Binary |
| 73.310 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexander Grischuk) | Binary |
| 73.310 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Maxime Vachier-Lagrave) | Binary |
| 72.261 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Shared Power) | Binary |
| 72.261 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (International Government) | Binary |
| 71.856 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Chicago Bears) | Binary |
| 71.762 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Denver Broncos) | Binary |
| 71.676 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Las Vegas Raiders) | Binary |
| 71.290 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 70.715 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 69.297 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 68.384 | What percent of Earth's land will be protected for wildlife on the following dates? (2025) | Continuous |
| 68.350 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 67.885 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Giants) | Binary |
| 67.746 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 67.746 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 67.656 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 67.457 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 66.802 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vidit Gujrathi) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alexandr Predke) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Etienne Bacrot) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Vladimir Fedoseev) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Andre Esipenko) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Yuriy Kuzubov) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Parham Maghsoodloo) | Binary |
| 65.747 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Leinier Domínguez Pérez) | Binary |
| 65.257 | Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 64.402 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-24) | Continuous |
| 64.140 | Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season? | Binary |
| 63.964 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 63.151 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (July-24) | Continuous |
| 62.698 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Washington Commanders) | Binary |
| 62.677 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Arizona Cardinals) | Binary |
| 62.602 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tennessee Titans) | Binary |
| 61.781 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 59.725 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 59.636 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 58.759 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 58.702 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 58.702 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 58.540 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 58.528 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 58.384 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 58.004 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 57.780 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New England Patriots) | Binary |
| 57.345 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Seattle Seahawks) | Binary |
| 56.491 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Ian Nepomniachtchi) | Binary |
| 56.491 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Hikaru Nakamura) | Binary |
| 56.438 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 55.869 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New Orleans Saints) | Binary |
| 55.806 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Minnesota Vikings) | Binary |
| 55.802 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Jacksonville Jaguars) | Binary |
| 55.771 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 55.599 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 54.632 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 54.530 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 54.496 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Carolina Panthers) | Binary |
| 53.089 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Hou Yu-ih (Kuomintang)) | Binary |
| 52.547 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-24) | Continuous |
| 52.484 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (San Francisco 49ers) | Binary |
| 52.021 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 51.972 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 51.926 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 51.926 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 51.655 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 51.291 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 51.023 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 50.952 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Fabiano Caruana) | Binary |
| 50.952 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu) | Binary |
| 50.929 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 50.076 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 48.816 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Los Angeles Chargers) | Binary |
| 48.073 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Nijat Abasov) | Binary |
| 47.222 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 46.832 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 46.719 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-24) | Continuous |
| 46.699 | Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 46.070 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 46.001 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 44.959 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 44.803 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Wesley So) | Binary |
| 44.693 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 44.437 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 43.841 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 43.510 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 42.726 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 42.639 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Buffalo Bills) | Binary |
| 42.428 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Detroit Lions) | Binary |
| 39.000 | How many people will be living in liberal democracies in the world in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 38.890 | What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be? | Continuous |
| 38.621 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 38.033 | What will the world population be in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 37.035 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 36.125 | Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025? | Binary |
| 35.839 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Anish Giri) | Binary |
| 35.837 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 35.044 | Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025? | Binary |
| 34.352 | Who will win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election? (Lai Ching-te (DPP)) | Binary |
| 34.297 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 33.530 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 33.152 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 32.912 | Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025? | Binary |
| 31.996 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 31.966 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 30.960 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 30.938 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 29.525 | Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025? | Binary |
| 28.038 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 27.825 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 27.784 | Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024? | Binary |
| 27.201 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 26.909 | What will annual CO2 emissions be in the United States (in tonnes) in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 26.702 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 26.381 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| 26.241 | Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| 25.952 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 24.442 | What will annual inflation be in the eurozone in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 23.944 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 23.822 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 22.808 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Miami Dolphins) | Binary |
| 22.704 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
| 20.827 | What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 20.563 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 20.220 | Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.989 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Alireza Firouzja) | Binary |
| 19.854 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 19.833 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026? | Binary |
| 19.781 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 19.541 | What will be the share of global light vehicles sold which are zero-emission vehicles in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 18.937 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 18.254 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 18.188 | What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants? | Continuous |
| 17.782 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (New York Jets) | Binary |
| 17.404 | How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023? | Continuous |
| 16.813 | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| 16.070 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 15.358 | Will any state leave NATO before 2024? | Binary |
| 15.339 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 15.339 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 15.339 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 15.295 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan) | Binary |
| 15.295 | Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan) | Binary |
| 15.156 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024? | Binary |
| 15.138 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 15.138 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 15.078 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| 15.046 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 15.028 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 14.983 | By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 14.810 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 14.805 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 14.606 | Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024? | Binary |
| 14.257 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement? | Binary |
| 14.204 | Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023? | Binary |
| 14.117 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 14.113 | By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty? | Binary |
| 13.970 | Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024? | Binary |
| 13.833 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | Continuous |
| 13.576 | Will Erling Haaland score the most goals in the 2023/24 Premier League season? | Binary |
| 12.917 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 12.749 | Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.747 | Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.744 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | Binary |
| 12.741 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | Binary |
| 12.706 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | Binary |
| 12.204 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 12.038 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan? | Binary |
| 11.335 | What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 11.297 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 10.867 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2023) | Continuous |
| 9.934 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 9.908 | Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023? | Binary |
| 9.766 | Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates? | Binary |
| 9.673 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 9.673 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 9.663 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 7.711 | By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans? | Binary |
| 6.843 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 6.790 | Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads? | Binary |
| 6.106 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 5.944 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 4.500 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 3.296 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 3.075 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 0.839 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 0.563 | Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024? | Binary |
| 0.471 | Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House? | Binary |
| 0.399 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 0.210 | What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 0.081 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| -0.393 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -2.122 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024? | Binary |
| -2.801 | Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022? | Binary |
| -3.694 | Which 8 players will participate in the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? (Gukesh Dommaraju) | Binary |
| -8.995 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| -13.612 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -13.662 | Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025? | Binary |
| -14.149 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -16.145 | When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard? | Continuous |
| -16.807 | Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025? | Binary |
| -17.852 | What will be the share of people living in countries where same-sex marriage is legal in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -23.280 | What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020? (2024) | Continuous |
| -23.871 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| -24.918 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Baltimore Ravens) | Binary |
| -26.118 | What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years? (2023) | Continuous |
| -28.449 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -35.202 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| -35.739 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| -39.392 | Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025? | Binary |
| -39.731 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -42.761 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -45.736 | Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025? | Binary |
| -57.112 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Cincinnati Bengals) | Binary |
| -64.342 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Dallas Cowboys) | Binary |
| -65.630 | Will the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act (DCCPA) be passed before 2025? | Binary |
| -72.347 | Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections? | Binary |
| -72.570 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| -77.304 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -77.719 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Israel) | Binary |
| -111.845 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| -113.368 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -127.907 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -137.871 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Binary |
| -170.181 | Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -181.556 | Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? | Binary |
| -201.038 | Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| -203.956 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Philadelphia Eagles) | Binary |
| -205.769 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| -214.364 | Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025? (Contested) | Binary |
| -287.700 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Houston Texans) | Binary |
| -290.026 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Green Bay Packers) | Binary |
| -291.795 | Which teams will advance to the divisional round of the 2024 NFL playoffs? (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) | Binary |
| -544.543 | Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India? | Binary |
| -561.161 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |