cjwilliams

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.884k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.058	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
95.783	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
94.520	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
93.832	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
91.233	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
90.145	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
88.340	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
87.870	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
87.833	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
87.091	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
86.683	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
85.195	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
84.580	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
80.189	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
80.137	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
78.703	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
78.146	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
76.186	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
75.229	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
75.134	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
74.420	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
74.346	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
73.330	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
72.591	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
71.314	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
70.557	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
70.361	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
70.077	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
68.929	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
67.320	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
66.839	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
65.517	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
64.361	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
64.250	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
64.235	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
63.372	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
63.148	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
63.114	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (0)	Binary
63.113	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (1)	Binary
62.989	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
61.228	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (2)	Binary
61.143	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
59.303	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (3)	Binary
59.079	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
57.127	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
56.752	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
56.599	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
56.484	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
55.531	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
54.468	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
54.307	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (4)	Binary
53.700	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
51.498	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
51.428	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
49.576	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
46.915	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
46.428	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
46.357	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
46.235	Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?	Binary
45.625	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
44.373	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
43.678	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
40.143	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
39.173	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
37.462	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (5)	Binary
37.395	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
37.082	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
36.904	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
35.201	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
35.074	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
34.543	Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?	Binary
34.006	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
32.659	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
32.042	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
31.735	Will the Israeli High Court uphold the "reasonableness" law?	Binary
31.088	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (6)	Binary
30.417	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
28.110	Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?	Binary
26.716	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.912	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
25.745	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
25.383	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
24.748	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
24.432	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
24.333	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
23.858	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
23.822	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
23.439	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
23.077	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
22.508	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
22.504	Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?	Binary
20.922	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
20.586	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
20.118	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
19.752	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
19.330	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
18.105	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
17.359	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
16.632	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
15.836	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
15.402	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
15.167	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
14.816	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
13.586	What will be the size of the 2024 EU Budget?	Continuous
12.413	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
11.731	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.307	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
8.958	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
8.016	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
6.334	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
5.850	Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023?	Binary
5.765	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
5.132	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
4.910	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
4.906	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
3.476	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
3.210	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
2.273	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
2.179	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
1.552	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
0.316	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
-	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-0.174	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
-1.015	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-2.177	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
-4.598	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-10.191	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-17.416	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
-20.873	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
-22.307	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-23.177	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-37.767	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-44.363	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-50.060	Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?	Binary
-50.462	Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?	Binary
-64.042	How many findings in this study about the “Visual Mandela Effect” will replicate? (7)	Binary
-68.354	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-118.486	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous

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Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

cjwilliams

User

cjwilliams